CPEC faces looming challenges from inimical forces

India is currently making shrill hue and cry over elections in Gilgit-Baltistan (G-B) that has a brilliantly heroic record of fighting several wars with pre-partition and post partition India. People of these areas indigenously liberated today’s G-B from India by rebelling against Dogra occupation in 1947. Kashmir Maharaja’s political and military commander Brigadier Ghansara Singh’s forces were decisively defeated and he was arrested. This resulted in liberation and subsequent voluntary annexation of Gilgit-Baltistan with Pakistan. Trouncing of Indians by people of G-B has always been a source of resentment within India; more so after Kargil. The resentment aggravated after Mr. Modi’s radicalised government. Latest development of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has almost made India desperate that it has started exploiting G-B’s geopolitical status to sabotage the project and give economic setback, both to Pakistan and China.
Both Pakistan and India have fortunately or unfortunately declared G-B as a disputed territory while attaching it as integral part of Kashmir. This pandemonium of keeping G-B in midpoint by both the rival countries has so far given added advantages to Indians as well as global powers rather than Pakistan as its efforts to resolve Kashmir issue in UN and alternately on battlefield have been frustrated treacherously. Now lingering status of G-B, in terms of political activities like elections for legislative assembly, is once again being exploited by India to ultimately perturb CPEC which has to traverse through these strategically important areas. After having failed in triggering sectarian and nationalistic emotions of the people of these areas, generated over a long period of time for petty domestic gains, Indians with the tacit support of global powers, more pronouncedly America and its Western as well as Asian and Gulf allies, would work possibly in other radical political spheres to destabilise these areas to attain desired objective of foiling CPEC at all costs.
Pakistan hence needs to be firmly cautious of Indian maneuvers and endeavours to activate radicals like Taliban and IS in volatile but fertile areas of Kohistan especially once Chinese engineers and workforce institute expansion work on Karakoram highway, the lifeline of CPEC. The local demographic, geographic, and geo-political realities of the region are likely to help spoilers because the range of insurgent groups deriving their support and recruits from a specific population having particular ideology does not differentiate between Shia, Sunni or any other faction rather impose its brand unilaterally.
Pakistan needs to act with great tact in order to tackle the looming challenges especially with regard to Afghanistan, China and Iran. Relations with the US are in a state of ambivalence and ever since Pakistan made its pronounced tilt towards the Chinese, more recently with Russia after General Raheel’s successful visit to Moscow, relations with the US have taken a backseat. Keeping amicable relations with both nations concurrently will require great diplomacy and political dexterity in times to come. Ashraf Ghani’s rising concerns over Pakistan’s intention to tackle with Afghan Taliban needs to be dispelled by Pakistan. This will not be achieved by engaging in mere rhetoric but by taking firm and swift action against the Afghan Taliban and bringing them to the negotiating table. The future of Pak-Afghan relations itself, is profoundly dependent on the ability of Pakistan to bridle the Afghan Taliban, which has so far not taken place. India’s gratuitous and provocative statements have ignited quite a racket in Pakistan. Although India is posing as a belligerent neighbour, Pakistan needs to restraint to do the same. Perhaps the best course of action would be to cut down the temperature between the two countries in order to ensure advantageous ground for initiation of CPEC in the volatile areas of Kohistan. Acts like Mastung and Safoora on the fringes and lethal attacks on Chinese and Pakistan’s security forces at the pivot are likely to occur in order to prevent the development of the Economic Corridor, since its maturity is also against the interests of many global and regional powers. Hence improving political conditions in terms of declaring G-B as constitutional fifth province with the tools of inclusion and social uplift through improvement in tourism activities along with security conditions, particularly in G-B and KP, should very well be a top priority for Pakistan at the moment.
With the lifting of the sanctions, relations with Iran could further improve through the development of the IP pipeline that would further be linked to China creating a tripartite nexus between the three countries. Peace in Afghanistan is also paramount for the safety of CPEC because penetration of IS or Daesh into the Afghan society infected with radicalisation would have devastating effects particularly if this phenomenon creeps into Wakhan corridor just adjacent to Karakoram Highway, the bedrock of CPEC.
The incumbent government though facing sporadic interventions from spoilers within and without treasury and opposition, has so far been able to provide a steel umbrella to good work of Pakistan Army that has taken prime responsibility to ensure lasting security to CPEC as a whole. Current government’s efforts to maintain amicable relations with the US, its neutrality in the Yemen crisis and its role in putting into operation the CPEC projects, have so far fared well for the country.
Both internal and external policies adopted by the country need to derive strength from the successes by forging ahead, especially in improving relations with Iran and Afghanistan. If Pakistan is able to successfully eliminate terrorism and radicalism from the region, relations with its neighbouring states would naturally improve as a synchronisation of the resultant peace and stability. Economic growth potentially brought in by the CPEC across Pakistan will be the core catalyst in also defeating secessionist movements in Balochistan and elsewhere against an unending oppressive course that has narrow potentials to bring peace and progress.