A nuclear flashpoint

After the arbitrary and unlawful annexation of Kashmir by India, the risk of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan is not a very distant possibility. Rather India has given two strong gestures to make it clear that it intends to use nuclear weapons in a war against Pakistan.

First, India made it public that its first domestically built nuclear-powered submarine had recently completed a “deterrence patrol”, giving it the capability to fire nuclear weapons from land, air and sea. This could be a message both for Pakistan and China. China is equally annoyed over the annexation of Laddakh on which it has a long-standing claim.

Second, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has announced that the future of its doctrine of ‘no first use’ of nuclear weapons depends on the situation. The situation is inflammable as renewed belligerence has erupted between Pakistan and India due to India’s move to revoke autonomy in the disputed region of Kashmir. The Indian defence minister’s comment of revisiting the NFU is obviously aimed at Pakistan.

India’s intentions and actions show that its doctrine of ‘No First Use’ has always been a strategic bluff on which it could easily renege at a critical time. Analysts are of the view that, despite its ‘no first use’ doctrine, India could still strike first. Prominent nuclear physicist and distinguished professor Pervez Hoodbhoy had said: “You can always come back later and say ‘we had been provoked to this point.”

Secondly, India carried out the Pokhran II nuclear tests in 1998, and hurriedly announced its ‘No First Use’ doctrine to pacify the world that its newly acquired nukes would be used only as a deterrent. It was rather hypocritical that India carried out nuclear tests to affirm its commitment to the goal of a “world free of nuclear weapons”, as claimed by the Indian government. In the same breath, it added that it reserved the right to exercise “massive retaliation” if another nation should strike first. Pakistan was left with no choice but to carry out retaliatory tests the same year.

Third, India in recent years has developed solid fuel missiles in canisters that require warheads to be already fitted onto the missiles, increasing the turnaround time of the weapon. Previously, it said it kept warheads separate from missiles. This confirms the intention and high level of preparedness to launch a nuclear attack, belying the NFU doctrine.

Fourth, India has not started reconsidering its NFU doctrine due to recent tensions between India and Pakistan. In fact, the 2014 election manifesto of the BJP included a promise to “revise and update” the country’s nuclear doctrine. Since then it has been looking for an opportunity to revoke its ‘No First Use’ pledge after taking over. Indian Prime Minister Modi has managed to create a dangerous situation in Kashmir to fulfill his election promise.

‘No First Use’ was a pledge taken by China, passed as a resolution after it became a nuclear power in 1964, to display its intention to keep this weapon purely for defence and deterrence. India emulated the Chinese policy but sans a serious intention to follow it religiously. It was more of a political statement to appease the world, and a strategic move to camouflage its moves.

History is evident that Pakistan was never the first to start the nuclear programme or to carry out nuclear tests. It responded to India’s actions. Even Pakistan’s missile programme started in 1988 during Benazir Bhutto’s government in response to the missile programme of India that already existed. This history creates a case that India might use the nuclear weapon first. Pakistan, some experts say, sees the weapons more as a deterrent to prevent a situation from escalating. However, it is prepared to make a second strike. It has developed enough capacity to launch medium and short-range missiles carrying big and small warheads. Its small tactical weapon, to be carried by the Al-Nasr missile, that can hit a target as far as 70 KMs, was developed in response to India’s so called ‘Cold Start’ strategy.

Both countries have growing stockpiles of nuclear weapons. A quick look at the nuclear arsenals of both the countries shows that Pakistan has between 150 and 160 warheads whereas India has 130-140 nuclear warheads, according to a 2018 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Both have the capability to annihilate each other’s main urban centers and other targets which can result in enormous damage and incalculable loss of life.

India’s nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine ‘INS Arihant’ became operational last year, giving the country the ability to launch nuclear strikes by land, air and sea. Pakistan has longer-range nuclear weapons, such as the Shaheen 3 and Ghauri missiles that can reach strategic areas in India.

Pakistan launched a short-range ballistic missile, formally equipping the military with a nuclear-capable rocket that officials say would deter a surprise conventional attack against the country by India.

The way India is upping the ante, by annexing the disputed territory of Kashmir and hinting at striking first with a nuclear weapon, the situation has become extremely dangerous. Both the countries have moved their armies to strategic locations. Rather most of the artillery and infantry units were there for the last few months. Pakistan is apprehensive of Indian misadventure in Azad Kashmir.

If a war starts, conventional engagement might not last long. In case of all-out war on all borders between Pakistan and India, the strongest muscles, the nuclear weapons, might come into play earlier than expected. The one who strikes first would have a massive strategic advantage.

It seems that both the countries have the capability to make a second strike. And it would not be less disastrous than the first one. The result would be massive casualties and immense destruction on both sides. Besides, the region will not escape from the rueful impacts and fallouts. The worrying point is that language is failing and restraint is petering out.

The writer is the author of ‘Terrorism in Pakistan: Tehreek-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Challenge to Security’ (I B Tauris). Twitter: @Aaibak