ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has managed the unmanageable. The first-ever official peace talks between an official delegation of Jamhuri-ye Islami-ye Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban Rahbari Shura-nominated delegation concluded on July 8 at the ‘Queen of Hills’, a summer resort town 50 kilometers from the capital Islamabad (there has been talk of unofficial talks in Doha, Urumchi and Oslo). Pakistan is said to have at least some leverage over the Shura while the Mullah Mohammad Omar-led Shura has always maintained that the Shura decides and acts independent of Pakistan’s influence. Over the years, especially since the launch of Operation Zarb-e-Azb, Pakistan’s leverage over the Shura has followed a declining trend. For Pakistan managing the unmanageable meant the creation of a politically conducive environment both for the Afghan government and the Shura to at least begin an official dialogue towards ending the 13-year old war. Easier said than done. There seem to be minor divisions within the Shura and there are definite spoilers within the Afghan government. And on top of those divisions and spoilers there are international actors with their own regional agendas and interests. To be certain, this was the first time ever that the Kabul government sent an official delegation. The official Afghan government delegation was led by Deputy Foreign Minister Hikmat Karzai (a distant cousin of former president Hamid Karzai) and included a close advisor to President Ashraf Ghani plus a close aide of Abdullah Abdullah (the current Chief Executive Officer of Afghanistan). The Shura-nominated delegation reportedly included: the top-ranking Mullah Akhtar Mohammed Mansour (former Minister of Civil Aviation and Transportation); Maulvi Hassan Rahmani, a key southern commander; Mullah Gul Agha, a childhood friend of Mullah Mohammad Omar who also served as Omar’s finance officer; Haji Abdul Rauf Khadim, a one-time Governor of Konar Province. Imagine; Pakistan successfully persuaded both the U.S. and China to send in an observer each. And imagine the Afghan government delegation was flown in by a United Nations aircraft. According to The Wall Street Journal, “Tehran has quietly increased its supply of weapons, ammunition and funding to the Taliban, and is now recruiting and training their fighters, posing a new threat to Afghanistan’s fragile security” adding that “Iran’s strategy in backing the Taliban is twofold: countering U.S. influence in the region and providing a counterweight to Islamic State’s move into Taliban’s territory in Afghanistan.” The other hyperactive international actor in the region is the American CIA with its own theories of ‘controlled chaos’ in order to justify continued U.S. hold over the region. India, the other spoiler, sees peace along the Pak-Afghan border as being against India’s regional ambitions. China, on the other hand, overly concerned that instability along the Pak-Afghan border will empower the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), has developed an interest in peace talks. According to the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, “There are two types of peaces processes. One that follows an agreement and the other is followed by an agreement.” The only agreement coming out of the Murree Peace Talks was to meet again in the last week of July. But an agreement to meet again is in itself a major Pakistani-facilitated, Afghan-led, Afghan-owned breakthrough.
