Why Sanjrani should quit?

Prime Minister Imran Khan and Senate Chairman Sadiq Sanjrani know well that they are far behind in number games in the Senate, with Opposition 67, against government 36, and the only way they could defeat the vote of no-confidence motion is through ‘horse-trading’ which may not go well with premier’s political narrative against ‘corruption’.

Instead he can go for a better and more democratic option and wait for a year to get a new chairman, when his party would get majority in the upper house. We hardly have traditions to set good traditions in politics.

In March 2021, 50 percent of the total number of senators would retire and will be replaced through fresh elections. With the PTI and its allies are in majority in the National Assembly and in three out of four provincial assemblies they may not find any difficulty in getting the new chairman Senate, which could be Sanjrani too. So why follow bad practices instead of setting some good ones.

At present, the Opposition required 53 votes in the 104-member house to oust Senate chairman. As mentioned above the Opposition has 67 votes. In the absence of the PML-N absconding Senator Ishaq Dar, the house strength is 103. The PML-N has 30 senators and the PPP 20. Besides National Party, whose candidate Mir Hasil Bizenjo has been nominated by the joint Opposition has five senators, the JUI-F and Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party, have four each, Jamaat-e-Islami has two and the ANP has one.

On other hand, among the ruling coalition the PTI has 14, the MQM-P has five, Balochistan Awami Party two, Balochistan National Party (Mengal) and FML, one each, besides 13 Independents.

So the number game clearly gives an edge to the Opposition and anything other than the traditional means of alleged ‘horse-trading’ could save Sadiq Sanjrani.

Unfortunately, the premier is surrounded by some of the traditional ‘turncoats’ of Pakistani politics, one of whom has now advised him not to call the Senate session till the government gets the number games, which will not be easy unless they go and win over some senators and we all know what does it means.

In Pakistani politics, senators, MNAs and MPAs, switch their loyalties from one party to other when their ‘Zameer’ wakes up and it becomes easy for them during secret ballot.

In this context the decision taken in the meeting chaired by the PM, himself Thursday, on Senate elections and attended among others by Sanjrani and Senator Shibli Faraz as well, the premier was quoted asking the Senate chairman not to resign and assured his government support. They also discussed the ‘number games’ and their focus would be on 13 Independent senators, who so far stood with the Opposition.

It will be interesting to see the role of some of the ‘outsiders’ in it, but the premier is confident that two of his key aides Jehangir Tareen, who is still considered his right hand man despite disqualification and Defence Minister Pervez Khattak would do the trick for him. The latter in the recent past had played this game well and even more recently succeeded in convincing BNP (Mengal) to support the government during national budget.

Traditionally, the ruling party has an upper hand when it comes to horse-trading and in this case the government needs record number to defend Sanjrani. So even if they succeed it may not go well with Prime Minister Imran Khan’s political narrative.

It is no secret what happened prior to 2018 elections in Balochistan and how provincial PML-N was completely packed up followed by the elections of chairman Senate and the role played by the former president Asif Ali Zardari in getting Sadiq Sanjrani, elected.

Zardari went too far in a bid to teach a lesson to former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, for what he did with his friend Dr Asim Hussain. He even compromised on PPP’s own candidate and former Senate chairman Raza Rabbani despite unanimity on his name and support from other parties.

For the Opposition particularly for the PPP it is time to correct the ‘historic wrong’ it had committed by giving preference to Sanjrani over Rabbani. If in 2018 it was Zardari vs Nawaz, it is Zardari vs Imran Khan today.

Opposition’s stake is much higher as defeat here despite clear majority would not only be a setback for them before their ‘Black Day’ on July 25, on the eve of the completion of the first year of the PTI government but could also widen the gap within the Opposition.

For the PTI government, questions would be raised on its narrative of political morality. Imran Khan often find himself in a difficult position to defend when people asked him as why he accept dozens of those former PPP and PML-N members some of whom are now ministers and special assistants who in the past defended Zardari and Nawaz Sharif.

As far Sanjrani’s own conduct as chairman was concerned, he set some good traditions like his predecessor Raza Rabbani as chairman and at times even got tough with the ministers to an extent that more than once he even stopped a minister from speaking.

Pakistan’s political parties have hardly set good democratic traditions in politics. ‘Horse-trading’ remains the hallmark of our political culture particularly since 1985 non-party based elections.

From 1989, vote of no-confidence against the then prime minister late Benazir Bhutto to Midnight Jackal or in Asghar Khan case, millions of rupees were allegedly given to the lawmakers to change loyalties.

However, through Political Parties Act, and after 18th Amendment, some of the bad practices were discouraged and now it’s not easy for MNAs, MPAs to change the party unless they quit their seats.

So the ball is in PM’s court and the way he is going hard on the Opposition through National Assembly speaker, who has allegedly been told not to issue production orders of PPP and PML-N leaders who are in jail would certainly not mind if his team manages to win over some of the Opposition senators to vote according to their ‘Zameer’.

“Everything is possible in love and war. We will do everything to defeat the vote of no-confidence against Senate chairman. You just wait and see our tactic,” said a prominent PTI leader on the condition of anonymity.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO