Opposition’s feet of clay

For almost a year, our revolutionary government was strutting like a rooster, mesmerised by the beauty of its own red crown, colourful feathers and that trumpet voice that could magically turn a pitch dark night into a bright day.

If there ever was a creature more magnificent than Iqbal ka Shaheen, it is this magnificent rooster on the top of our decrepit haveli, turning the buildings beneath it into Taj Mahal just through its crowing.

The last couple of weeks have shown how vulnerable a coalition government, or any civilian government for that matter, in Pakistan can be. The PTI had formed government with the kind of advantages that no other government has had in recent times. It is a populist government that enjoys the full support of state institutions. There is no Chaudhry Iftikhar or Saqib Nisar trying to lend a hand in running the executive efficiently. NAB does not want to create political instability and for a year the opposition insisted that it wanted to cooperate with the government.

Close to the second year, some incoherent noises and half-hearted challenges from the opposition have created a panic and opened the chest of treasures for coalition partners and government legislators. No serious observer doubted the government’s capacity to get the budget passed from the National Assembly. Luckily, budgets don’t need the assent of the Senate. But the scare has resulted in a bonanza for partners who were feeling ignored. The MQM’s super gentlemen (nafees log) have got a new ministry. We know how good they are at changing price tags when their wares are in demand. Akhtar Mengal, the PTI’s naraaz Baloch Bhai had finally an audience with the PM. He got many crores in development budgets and an agreement for the formation of a bipartisan committee that gives him a permanent leverage to pressurize the government. The Chaudhrys of Gujrat have also become more relevant and empowered than ever before.

What is even more significant is that all government legislators will get development funds, which have been one of the main vehicles of patronage and political corruption in Pakistan since 1980s. Yes, these are the very funds against which we have thousands of Imrani sermons in the Book of Revolution.

All of this was done to deal with an imaginary scare. It took the opposition parties a year to find some common ground, but it has finally thrown down the gauntlet. A tangible threat has appeared through the opposition’s announcement to change the chairman of Senate. If the opposition succeeds in overthrowing the chairman and taking control of the upper house, it will be a huge setback for a government that does not have much to show in terms of its legislative performance.

Going by its numbers, composition and representation, at another time, the current opposition would be a fearsome creature. It includes the two major parties that had dominated Pakistan’s politics for five decades and which still represent two extremely important areas – Punjab’s powerful heartlands and Sindh. It also includes powerful religious forces that manage thousands of mosques and madressahs and some important Pashtun nationalist parties. And yet it seems to have feet of clay.

The opposition’s weakness appears rooted in two factors – the dynastic nature of our politics and the mixing of politics and business.

Dynastic politics means that the family cycle is going to have an impact on the behaviour of a party as the party is bound to reflect the fortunes of its ruling dynasty. Unfortunately, the patriarchs of all important parties in opposition have passed their prime and it is time for them to pass on their mantle to the next generations. Such times of succession are times of vulnerability for any dynasty. There can be possible internal conflicts, as is the case with the PML-N or questions of legitimacy and charisma, as is the case with the PPP and the ANP.

Another bigger problem is the age and health of patriarchs. All patriarchs – Nawaz Sharif, Zardari, the Maulana and Asfandyar are diabetic and most suffer from heart diseases as well. All of them are courageous, but their bodies don’t support their mettle. And what is even more important, their families aren’t willing to put them in harm’s way at this stage.

We have seen that the politics of Maryam and Bilawal fluctuates with the situation of their fathers. It puts the credibility of their resistance in doubt. In Maryam’s case, this now-on-now-off attitude has become a roadblock to her career and Bilawal working as his father’s political front man has seriously damaged his credentials.

Maulana Sahib is also old, but his case if different. As head of Deoband, he remains untouchable. He can pester the government as much as he likes without attracting NAB’s serious interest. Fortunately, unlike businesses, madressahs can’t be taken away. In the political arena, his politics of patronage and accommodation has hit a snag and the path of resistance is the way forward for him. Only those who don’t understand the dynamics of Pakistani socio-politics can take him lightly.

Then there is another problem. Both the House of Sharif and the House of Zardari double as business houses. And not just business houses; they are princes of crony sectors – sugar barons. To me, this is their real crime. Kaptaan barks the wrong tree by accusing them of small time embezzlement. Why would you rob a bank’s branch when you can take over a bank?

Politics is an expensive business. Business can be run either through your own money or money from other investors. Having your own sugar mills gives you an advantage over running politics through someone else’s sugar mill. Neither the Sharifs nor the Zardaris would like to lose their businesses.

Similar crony businesses run House PTI as well, without the clean man owing anything. Have you noticed how the government has relented on cigarette wallahs in the recent taxation drive, indirectly transferring benefits of billions of rupees? Is it only a coincidence that most cigarette wallahs are with the tabdeeli revolution? Only in politics can cancer hospitals and cigarettes be part of one family.

How can such a weak opposition be a serious threat to the government? Though a populist government, the PTI government represents a narrow section of Pakistan. There are large geographic and socio-economic groups that are represented by other parties. Pakistan’s diversity works against single-party hegemony as it creates a crisis of representation in politics that results in political backlash. It also results in the opposition ganging up on the government. A seemingly weak opposition can become the undoing of a popular or populist leader as we saw in the case of ZA Bhutto.

As Iqbal tells us in one of his poems, hell is without any fire. Those who come to populate it bring their own fire with them.

The writer is an anthropologist and development professional.

Email: zaighamkhan@yahoo.com

Twitter: @zaighamkhan