A vicious cycle

How pitiful it is when twins cannot live together in peace. Seventy years of living in close geographical proximity but without much interaction have made the twins strangers at best and enemies at worst.

Both are probably orphans and also without sincere friends. They are trapped in history, blinded by hyper-nationalism, and chained by crude politics of the day.

India and Pakistan are back yet again for an unwinnable duel. They have so far fought three major wars, and teased each other with innumerable border clashes. Fearful of each other, they have equipped themselves with all kinds of lethal weapons at the huge cost of leaving their people to ignorance, abject poverty, and diseases.

The inability of both countries to resolve their differences peacefully is the outcome of a persistent leadership crisis. A rare visionary leader in one country finds himself overweighed by his less competent counterpart in the other country. The recent Pulwama incident and its aftermath is a classic example of how leaders shape and are shaped by circumstances at hand. One leader chooses to make history by working and pleading for peace and progress while the other opts to live in history, settle scores, and win immediate glory. Narendra Modi has much in common with typical fascist leaders.

Modi – the chief hawk in the present crisis – has problems mostly of his own making. He has developed a nostalgic narrative of Akand Baharat to play effectively to the gallery as a quick fix to regain his lost popularity. All this is evident from the way he dresses, walks, and talks. He has had a lot to learn from Mahatma Gandhi if not many other great leaders in the world – humility at the height of fame – but he wants to live on historical myths. A statesman, which Modi is not, creates conditions for harmony, justice, and cooperation. A demagogue, which Modi is, flames emotions, creates divisions, and spits venom to galvanise naïve people to vote for him in the next elections.

He, however, does not realise that war-mongering is not a solution to a problem as challenging and serious as Kashmir. Blaming Pakistan for India’s failure to contain an indigenous struggle for freedom has not worked in the past and would not make much difference in the future. Some tactical gains against Pakistan and the Kashmiris may boost the morale of his soldiers for a while but the pot would always keep simmering.

Guerrilla warfare fuelled by a yearning for liberation should not be construed as an ordinary war; it is complex, protracted, and most often illusive. Killing a few individuals here and there and hitting some hideouts from the skies may bring smiles and solace on some faces in India but it is nothing more than a self-defeating strategy.

The vicious cycle of suppression, militant attacks, and military stand-offs must be broken for the region to realise its full potential. Both India and Pakistan must be prepared to accept the fact that war will yield nothing but mutually assured destruction. Purposeful and sincere dialogue appears to be the only viable and durable path to peace. Engagement and not confrontation leads to solution however complex a problem may be.

As a first step, both countries should develop a mechanism for talks which is not prone to episodic accidents. According to Mani Shankar Aiyar (a former Indian MP), the dialogue process should be uninterrupted and uninterruptible to yield the desired results.

The writer teaches atSZABIST, Islamabad

Email: dr.zeb@szabist-isb. edu.pk