Pathways to patriotism

Modi is not mad. He did overreach himself by crossing a red line, but it was a calculated move with clear strategic and political objectives. The calculation was all wrong. The strategic objectives have been thwarted and political objectives appear in serious jeopardy. However, Pakistan cannot afford complacency.

India’s strategic objectives are quite clear. It wanted to create a new normal by giving itself the authority to launch “counter-terror air strikes” inside Pakistan at will. Taken out of the American and Israeli playbooks, India has sought such “a right” as a regional hegemon since 9/11.

The phrase “non-military pre-emptive strike” – used by Indians to explain the attack – was revealing. The term ‘non-military’ was meant to soothe Pakistani nerves, to play down the incident in order to avoid a counter attack. ‘Pre-emptive’ was the operative part, replicating the American policy introduced by George Bush in 2002.

Bush had stated: “We must take the battle to the enemy, disrupt his plans and confront the worst threats before they emerge. In the world we have entered, the only path to safety is the path of action. And this nation will act.”

The Indian government justified its ‘surgical strikes’ in the following words: “Credible intelligence was received that JeM was attempting another suicide terror attack in various parts of the country, and the fidayeen jihadis were being trained for this purpose. In the face of imminent danger, a pre-emptive strike became absolutely necessary.”

Robert Fisk, drawing a comparison between Indian and Israeli policies has noted in a column: “Like many Israeli boasts of hitting similar targets, the Indian adventure into Pakistan might owe more to the imagination than military success. The ‘300-400 terrorists’ supposedly eliminated by the Israeli-manufactured and Israeli-supplied GPS-guided bombs may turn out to be little more than rocks and trees.”

Despite the boastful nature of the action, Pakistan’s failure to respond would have established a new normal, putting the country in harms’ way. Pakistan’s deterrence, both traditional and nuclear, would have been reduced to mere bluffs. Fully understanding the implications, Pakistan decided for a tit-for-tat counter air-strike across the LoC. The balance got tilted in Pakistan’s favour with the downing of two Indian aircrafts and the arrest of an Indian pilot.

The new normal remains a pipedream for India and further escalation has been thwarted, for the time being at least, by behind-the-scenes efforts of international powers, particularly the US and Arab countries. The celebrations in India, led by the media, shifted from surgical strikes to the release of the arrested pilot.

Happymon Jacob, a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University wrote in an article: “This week’s escalation is the fallout of a misplaced Indian belief that it could change the military normal between the two sides, and the Pakistani refusal to let that happen. To that extent, if the crisis doesn’t escalate any further, Pakistan would have successfully dissuaded India from altering the status quo.”

If there had been no response, as was calculated by Modi’s government, the BJP would have been able to benefit hugely from the myth of a strong leader who can take on Pakistan like a Bollywood hero. Modi may once again make India’s Muslim minority a focus of the BJP’s hate laden campaign and stoke sectarian riots to compensate for his failure on the border with Pakistan.

It is unlikely that India will back off completely, change its policy of oppression in Kashmir and open dialogue with Pakistan. India finds opportunity in Pakistan’s current economic vulnerability and wants to use it to the maximum effect. Using its increasing economic clout, India will also continue its efforts to isolate Pakistan on the diplomatic front.

Imran Khan’s government has recently boasted of loans from friendly countries as a huge breakthrough on the diplomatic front. These transactions do affirm Pakistan’s longstanding relationship with these countries, but it is obvious how such an exchange diminishes a country’s diplomatic stature.

Pakistan had been able to exclude India from the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation platform since the 1960s when the organisation was formed. No longer. Pakistan was not even consulted when the UAE decided to invite the Indian foreign minister as a guest of honour at the 46th session of the OIC’s Council of Foreign Ministers (CFM), hosted by the UAE in Abu Dhabi. Pakistan failed in its efforts to have Sushma Swaraj uninvited, despite diplomatic efforts.

Pakistan’s relative diplomatic isolation is based on its declining economy and India’s growing economic clout. In today’s world, diplomatic muscle is proportionate to economic muscle of a country. Our close allies have precious trading relationships with India worth tens of billions of dollars. No country can ignore such interests in a hurry. No wonder then that Turkey was the only country that was willing to side with Pakistan in condemning the Indian aggression.

Pakistan’s vulnerability does not lie in its defence; it lies in its economy. In fact, our defence can be compromised due to our economic situation. Even the bravest fighters need technology and good machines that come at a price.

There are many ideas that we need to revise in light of the current situation. The idea of patriotism must include paying taxes (and not stealing utilities). During the last few months, the government must have learnt that countries cannot be run like charitable institutions. Neither national nor international philanthropy can be a good source of revenue for the nation-building project.

Despite all coercion and motivating, running advertisements worth Rs13bn of free airtime, the total contribution for the dam fund has come to around Rs9bn. In this year alone, the government would have collected Rs4000 billion more in taxes if our tax collection equalled India’s tax-to-GDP ratio. With that amount, Pakistan’s can build two dams in a single year, without our state officials roaming around with donation boxes at the cost of their own duties.

The government must focus on institutional reforms and deliver good governance. It should also try its best to ensure political stability in the country. Our political instability and lack of consistent policies have played a major role in the undoing of our economy. We cannot afford it any longer.

Pakistan’s own misplaced and outdated policies are also helping India and undermining brand ‘Pakistan’. Pakistan’s economy faces a serious risk as the FATF breathes down our necks, forcing us to make decisions that we should have made on our own many years ago.

The best thing about the current episode is the absence of war hysteria in Pakistan. We can do well without hysteria as we have a lot of thinking and planning to do. Let wisdom be our guide and companion.

The writer is an anthropologist and development professional.

Email: zaighamkhan@yahoo.com

Twitter: @zaighamkhan