Is Zardari on counter offensive?

ISLAMABAD: It appears the PPP Co-Chairman Asif Ali Zardari is in a counter offensive mood, giving clean chit to the Sindh Chief Minister Syed Qaim Ali Shah by reposing confidence in him, asking him to continue and ruling out any change in Sindh.
Is he apprehending something unusual in the coming weeks or months in Karachi in particular? Will he get the required political support from Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif?Is this reaction to some of the major decisions taken during the extraordinary visit of Army Chief General Raheel Sharif along with intelligence chiefs to Karachi last week?
It appears the former president is not very pleased with the rising influence of the establishment and its taking charge of the “law and order” and the Sindh Home Ministry.
The changing mood of the former president came days after some startling disclosures were made by the Corps Commander Karachi Lt. Gen. Naveed Mukhtar in his speech about the prevailing situation in this mega city, loopholes and nexus between “crime and politics,” with the government losing influence to control the situation.
Now, whether his counter offensive would work out or not would be interesting to watch, but he has now decided to play a more active role and will make more and more public appearances.
Mr. Zardari knows Karachi can be in turmoil if anything happens to Altaf Hussain. So, he may use his political clout and back the MQM in order to save his neck, too. Mr. Zardari showed sign of nervousness when indirectly he expressed his reservations about some of the remarks of Gen. Naveed without realizing that it came after some important decisions taken in high-level meetings of the Army Chief General Raheel during his two-day visit to the city in the light of reports of Intelligence agencies, which also includes some major corruption cases.
Talking to journalists in Islamabad, Zardari tried to give a strong message to the establishment in this manner. (1) Chief Minister of Sindh will neither resign nor replaced, (2) No to governor’s rule and for this he took shelter behind the 18th Amendment, (3) he is not scared of any “magic wand,” and (4) aggressive style is part of the corps commander’s training. What does it mean? Has Mr. Zardari tried to dispel the impression that what Gen. Naveed said was just a style carrying no substance? (5) Dr Zulfiqar Mirza is speaking on behalf of “someone else.” What does it mean as Chief Minister Syed Qaim Ali Shah has also made similar remarks? Who is this someone else?
Therefore, it is clear that Mr. Zardari and his government in Sindh is in no mood to change its style of government. Differences may come on surface when the “screening” in the Sindh police starts and over the formula of fresh appointments and training.
Mr. Zardari’s message to the PPP workers that his son and party Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has reached Dubai and is coming back to lead the party along with his sister Assefa is a move to raise the moral of party workers.
Mr. Zardari has already developed a long-term understanding with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, which has lot to do in “handling” the establishment and Imran Khan. The PPP will not create any hurdles in government’s legislation in the Senate while the PM has assured him of no interference in Sindh. However, the issue which is still causing concern is the reopening of pending cases against him. Prime minister and interior minister’s differences on “Mr. Zardari” and on some other matters still persist.
We may see a more aggressive Zardari in the coming days and weeks but his main target will not be the PML-N or Nawaz Sharif but the PTI. He will continue to remain soft on the MQM, as he may need the powerful urban-based party in case his tension increased with the establishment. By patting the back of Syed Qaim Ali Shah, Mr. Zardari now wants him to put his foot down and take a position as “chief executive” in case his power is challenged.
Shah Sahab delayed his speech in the Sindh Assembly, which he wanted to make a day after the corps commander’s speech, as he wanted to take Mr. Zardari into confidence. His speech showed his regaining confidence. Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, who met him after several months (one-on-one), also opposed the resignation demand, though the two are still not on one page on many matters related to “Karachi Targeted Action.”
Although Shah Sahab received telephone calls from Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Mr. Zardari over the arrest of four suspects in the massacre of 47 Ismaili Muslims, the fact remains that those arrested were just “facilitators” and not the assailants. It is certainly a development but it remains to be seen whether “right people” were arrested or not.
Similarly, he has now withdrawn his earlier stance on the involvement of Indian intelligence agency RAW in the incident and now believes there are still no evidences of its involvement. Perhaps, that is why Ch. Nisar too avoided putting direct blame on the RAW.
So far, the PPP has not opposed the paramilitary operation, crackdown on the alleged MQM militants or members of the Lyari gang war, but it may oppose any move which could lead to reopening of cases and fresh inquires, crackdown on corrupt officers in the Sindh and local government departments.
It may also be quite intriguing why all of a sudden the Federal Investigation Agency and Sindh police have stopped taking interest in the extradition of the main character of Lyari gang war Uzair Baluch. Will Uzair ever come to Pakistan again after some reports suggest he would mostly likely be handed over to Iran, as he is wanted in a case? So, there is a sign of relief for many if he does not come to Pakistan.
Mr. Zardari knows till the next general election Sindh is his last hope. He wants to make some inroads in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan while trying to regain thePPP position in the Southern Punjab.
Thus, his understanding with Nawaz is to give the PPP space in Southern Punjab and help counter the PTI. Sharif too is sacred of Imran Khan despite some setback to the PTI.
But, there is little the prime minister can do in case the establishment goes all out in Sindh against terrorists, criminals, militant wings of political and religious parties and most importantly crackdown on “corrupt officers,” which could lead to politicians.
The decisive phase can come after the Judicial Commission’s finding, which may set direction whether the government will get stronger or go home to get ready for the fresh polls.
The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.