Thinking of 2019

Will the sun shine brighter in 2019? It is the year when Imran Khan and the PTI will have the liberty to shape Pakistan in their vision. We have an idea what that vision is like. We have no idea how the future will be colonised by that vision. And 2019 is the year when we will get an answer to this question.

The PTI’s vision consisted of two parts. First, taking power from the corrupt mafia, meaning non-PTI politicians, and handing it to the most honest person in the country. The second part of the vision was to flow automatically and dramatically from the first change and result in a changed economy society and state.

We have yet to witness a cascading effect. So far a logjam has been created in the system, bringing more dysfunction and inertia. Honesty and selflessness has not transform into an instant economic miracle either. The country’s economic indicators have only worsened during the PTI’s first few months in government.

We know that expatriate Pakistanis are not flocking to their homeland with sacks full of hard-earned dollars and euros. We have not even heard from the famous Jheel Wala Doctor who had sworn on social media to return to Naya Pakistan to serve the poor masses. So far, expats are basing their decisions on economic realities rather than the honesty of our leaders. What is worse, they have not responded to the PM and CJ’s Dam Appeal with much enthusiasm.

So far people with money are focused on their self-interest. As Adam Smith, founder of economics, told us, it is self-interest that moves the engine of the economy. Through an invisible hand, individual greed serves the public interest. The PTI may be able to stir the ‘jazba’ of the expats next year by issuing new anthems.

Foreign investors are cleverer. They look at multiple indicators of economy before making a decision. Perhaps, the last indicator they look at in a developing economy is corruption. They are flocking to Bangladesh and India instead – far more corrupt destinations than Pakistan. Hopefully, this will change in the new year.

Our economic problems may be solved by Shahzad Akbar hunting the looted wealth in foreign destinations. The PTI has brought down expectations from two hundred billion dollars to two billion dollars. So far we know our accountability gurus have to pay billions of rupees in fine to their vendors abroad.

‘Ghairat’ is the dominant emotion of the PTI revolution. We were told that being self-aware of our dignity can make us self-sufficient. After all, this is what Iqbal has pleaded in his poetry – to live in dignified poverty rather than selling off your ‘khudi’ (the ego). Imran Khan, the candidate, had even promised to commit suicide rather than begging for loans because begging for loans is against the ghairat of our nation. Pakistan is not yet ready to pay the price of such ghairat. We may have to wait for some more time before adopting this kind of ghairat.

It is clear by now that Pakistan’s economic problems will only worsen in the next year. The IMF forces punishing austerity policies upon its customers in exchange for support. The measures they impose on a troubled economy often appear to have a very negative short-term impact on those least able to deal with it. The government is yet to sign on the dotted lines and we can already see soaring inflation and interest rates and plummeting GDP growth rate. In 2019, these figures will hit the purses of the common people.

The poor may cry hoarse and the PTI may become unpopular temporarily but such sentiment can’t harm a government in the first year. Movements are born only when the economic situation improves. Look at the economic indicators at the time of the PTI’s dharna. The PTI should be afraid of public anger after the economy starts improving. The PTI being the PTI will try its best to stick to populism, and try to deflect public anger by hitting harder at the opposition. The party very explicitly desires the destruction of the two corrupt parties that are its current rivals in parliament.

The PTI may benefit, at least for some time, from problems faced by its rival major political parties. The fate of the PML-N and the PPP is linked to the destiny of the Sharif and the Bhutto-Zardari families. The spectacle of the Sharifs’ accountability has gone on for two years now. It may reach some conclusion and we may see new factions emerging from the party.

The PPP had almost aligned itself with the PTI, but such flight response has not served Asif Ali Zardari well and he has once again shifted to the fight response. The party, or the dynasty, has thrown its lot with Asif Ali Zardari. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who was to take the reins of the party in a generational transfer of leadership, has been forced to defend his father. He has been given an impossible brief. His only hope lay in distancing himself from the legacy of his father and claiming the legacy of his maternal family. It almost diminishes Bialwal’s chance to caste the party in a new image. He has chosen a hybrid legacy.

The PTI hopes that a new friendly version of the two parties will emerge in the process. A new kind of PML means an alternative to the PTI. It means the PTI can be replaceable. The PTI will no longer be the only laadla party, in that case. So, the PTI may be working against its own interests by hitting too hard at its rivals.

The most important thing to watch during the next year is the PTI’s agenda of reforms. So far we haven’t seen anything coming from the numerous committees working to propose reforms in economy and governance.

We may see the beginning of structural changes in the economy, though such changes will go against the interest of many socio-economic groups that support the party. We may see a reformed FBR. We may see a huge expansion in the tax base, rather than the fleecing of existing taxpayers.

Perhaps, we will see the party of justice bringing us justice. As promised in Imran Khan’s 100 Day Agenda, all civil cases may be decided within a year, clearing the backlog of cases at the civil courts. So far, lawyers have been the biggest stumbling block on the way to judicial reforms. Will they be able to forgo a good part of their income now? Will they be happy to let a case be decided in days, instead of holding on to a generational stream of income?

Perhaps, we will see reform in the police system. We may see the Punjab Police becoming the envy of the Scotland Yard through reforms and not just by putting a god-fearing inspector-general in charge of the most fearsome colonial machine.

The writer is an anthropologist and development professional.

Email: zaighamkhan@yahoo.com

Twitter: @zaighamkhan