Peace dilemma of Afghanistan

The US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, recently visited the region to speed up the peace efforts in Afghanistan. He has been deputed by the US government to navigate for a peace agreement with the Afghan Taliban through exploiting diplomatic and political avenues before the upcoming Afghan presidential elections in April 2019. In this connection, Zalmay Khalilzad also met with Uzbekistan’s Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov to discuss the Afghan peace process. Deputy Assistant to the President of the United States, Senior Director for South and Central Asia at the National Security Council Lisa Curtis, also attended the said meeting. While discussing the prospects of peaceful settlement in Afghanistan, both sides confirmed that “there is no military solution to the problem”. Besides, it was urged that “no Afghan should remain outside this political process and that the world community should contribute to consolidation of the entire Afghan society around the national interests in the name of peace and prosperity in the country.” Both sides also supported the peace programme for Afghanistan, earlier spelled out by President Ashraf Ghani in Geneva.

Experts opine that at the darker side of the peace progress for Afghanistan, the Afghan Taliban have had unprecedented successes on the battlefield as well as in the recent diplomatic ventures in Russia and Central Asia. They have also been engaged by the US government directly in the dialogue for peace in Afghanistan. Success of the dialogue process and the seriousness of the US government will be tested soon. Experts opine that Taliban would be watchful to have solid assurances and would not easily fall prey to another deviation tactic by the US authorities. For peace in the region, a serious and sincere effort from all stakeholders is of vital importance. However the abrupt U-turns of the US administration and lack of clear decision on troops withdrawal is still a stalemate. In the absence of any clear decision, even morale of the foreign troops deployed in the tough and rough areas of Afghanistan would be lowered.

Generally, it has been observed that the vacuum of decision is also influencing the will of the Afghan Taliban to fine-tune their offensive strategy. It has been observed that whenever the US government had declared that US troops are being withdrawn, the Afghan Taliban decreased their offensive to catalyze the process. But, on the other hand, when there are visuals of increased level of foreign troops in Afghanistan, they (Taliban) resort to an increased offensive so as to rewind the US decision. Hence, there is a lack of clarity on decision at a higher echelon of the US administration, which needs to be clarified and implemented accordingly.

Experts believe that a deep-rooted “Peace Dilemma” exists in the Afghan conflict. As whenever, there is some peace initiative going to be materialised, the US government targets some high profile Taliban leadership. This conveys a very simple and loud message to the Afghan Taliban leaders that the US government is simply not interested in the Afghan peace process. The US government seems to be deliberately trying to prolong their stay and achieve the desired goals of containing China and Russia. It is quite interesting to consume the theory how come a small number of troops could achieve that target. But interestingly, experts argue that during the Cold War era, the US and Europe maintained their influence through utilizing the intelligence networks. It is the same working technique, validly bringing fruits in the case of Afghanistan.

Analyzing the current deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan, there is an observable shift of advantage in the favour of Afghan Taliban. The US and Afghan regime are already in the process of negotiating with the Afghan Taliban for apparent peace in Afghanistan. The NUG government maintains that the political parties of Afghanistan should also play their role for talks with the Taliban. Afghanistan’s mainstream political parties have established independent peace negotiating teams to talk to the Taliban. Jamiat-e-Islami, led by Foreign Minister Salahuddin Rabbani, the National Islamic Movement of Afghanistan led by General Abdul Rashid Dostum, and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar led Hizb-e-Islami have created their own separate teams to negotiate with the Taliban. So the peace cart is being pulled in different directions by stakeholders hoping to reach at the destination with own terms and conditions.

Pakistan has always supported dialogue as the only option for successful peace process in Afghanistan. Pakistan is the key player and supporter of peace in Afghanistan as peace in Afghanistan would mean peace in Pakistan. No other country in the world has sacrificed so much in this war as Pakistan did. The Global Terrorism Index, which profiles data on terrorism from across the world, ranked Pakistan the second among the countries most affected by terrorism. However, our brave soldiers have made it possible and Pakistan is probably the only country that has been able to almost eliminate menace of terrorism from its soil and is in the process of eradicating the residual. No country in the world has the right to criticize the triumphant efforts of Pakistan.