Promoting the Afghan peace initiative

The Great Game of the 'Big Powers' of the 19th century that centered around Afghanistan continues into the 21st century. With the passage of time, players have been changed; however, the venue remains the same. Russia and America are involved from 1978 to 2018, however, no power was able to achieve the desired objectives. They only brought more misery to the country and the region.

India is an emerging power in the region and trying to become relevant in this great game. Its entry has affected the whole region, especially Pakistan. With the passage of time, it is evident that India’s all steps in Afghanistan are meant to destabilise Pakistan and not for the prosperity and stability of the Afghan people. India has invested $1.3 billion in Afghanistan aid projects since 2001 but it fears that Pakistan is preparing grounds for pro-Pak elements from the Taliban in Kabul in an attempt to force India out of Afghanistan after the American forces start withdrawal. Whereas, Pakistan is directly affected by the Afghan conflict. Pakistan is still hosting more than three million Afghan refugees in the country and lost billions of dollars on the economic front. Pakistan has offered space for Afghanistan in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This move has been welcomed by the Afghan authorities but India is not in its favour. India and Pakistan may have to chart a common strategy towards Afghanistan. This act will be good for the people of Afghanistan and for the region as well. In this regard, any peace initiative needs to be supported by the regional and extra-regional countries.

After more than 17 years of war and spending billions of dollars plus human losses on both sides, the administration of US President Donald Trump has stepped up efforts to settle the conflict peacefully. The whole region has suffered due to this unending war. After suffering for a long time, the Afghan government and the international allies of Afghanistan have stepped up efforts to end the ongoing conflict through a reconciliation process.

Recently, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US military General Joseph Dunford admitted that “the Taliban are not losing in Afghanistan". General Dunford further said that they used the term stalemate a year ago and relatively speaking, it had not changed much. The US and its Nato partners are working to leverage military, political and economic pressure to convince the Afghan Taliban that it is in their interest to negotiate a political solution to the crisis with the government in Kabul.

On the other side, Russia hosted peace talks on Nov 9, 2018 for the first time with delegations from the High Peace Council (HPC), the Taliban and 12 countries, including Iran, Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan, China, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, India and the US. Experts termed the initiative as seeking of greater role by Moscow in the international and regional diplomacy. The Moscow meeting was a success for the Afghan Taliban and for the whole region because at least an initiative has been taken by a regional power Russia, which is very significant. Experts opine that the attendance of Afghan Taliban's five-member delegation in such a high-level meet which was unprecedented made the non-attendance of direct representatives of Afghan government irrelevant. India attended the moot and other participating countries also showed keen interest as they understand that a peaceful Afghanistan can serve their interests in a better way.

The US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, is visiting the region to speed up the peace efforts in Afghanistan. He wants to have a peace agreement with the Taliban before the upcoming Afghan presidential elections in April 2019. However, there are fears that the presidential election may be delayed for some time. Khalilzad termed the matter as a decision of Afghans.

Taliban have had unprecedented successes on the battlefield as well as in the recent diplomatic ventures in Russia and Central Asia. They have been engaged by the US directly in the dialogue for peace in Afghanistan. Success of the dialogue process and the seriousness of the US will be tested soon. Taliban would seek solid assurances and would not easily fall prey to deviation tactics by the US authorities. For peace in the region, a serious and sincere effort from all stakeholders is of vital importance. There is a dire need of regional and extra regional convergence over the peaceful settlement of the Afghan stalemate. Hence, every such effort needs to be facilitated and supported by every stakeholder with utmost sincerity and due honesty.