Dilemma of Gen Musharraf

Story of former president Pervez Musharraf is not very different from many military dictators around the world who faced such situations after being ousted from power.

Ex-general is living in exile for the past four years and now facing a serious dilemma whether to return or not to face trial on multiple charges as his health condition is seriously deteriorating unlike in 2014, when he was allowed to leave with ‘unwritten’ understanding between the then civil and military leadership.

Musharraf hope for any ‘relief’ faded when the newly-elected government of Prime Minister Imran Khan and the present establishment decided to stay out of this and let the court the decide the matter.

The Supreme Court has now issued a fresh order for his return and even assured that he would not only be provided complete security but also get best possible medical treatment.

So he is fast losing ground not to return and the pressure is mounting particularly after the trial and conviction of former premier Nawaz Sharif, his daughter Maryam Nawaz and son-in-law Capt Safdar.

Sources said Musharraf is looking for a ‘safe exit’ again before his return to Pakistan on court orders, something which he is not getting at the moment. Those who met him in the last few weeks hinted towards deterioration in his health condition as he is now reportedly suffering from different diseases. Perhaps he still waiting for some positive signals from his ‘friends and colleagues’ before taking the final decision on return or not to return.

While history will judge the era of Musharraf in its own way but he should blame himself for the present situation after he was first provided a ‘safe exit’ by the former president Asif Ali Zardari in 2008, in a bid to avoid confrontation with the establishment. It was not an easy decision for Zardari, months after his spouse Benazir Bhutto was assassinated and fingers were pointed toward the former ruler. Yet, he allowed him to leave.

For Nawaz Sharif, situation was different as he was the direct victim of Musharraf, who not only ousted his government, put him behind bars but also got him convicted for life. It was only after the Saudi Royal family’s interference that he was allowed to go under a 10 years controversial deal.

Nawaz against the advice of his brother Shahbaz and former interior minister Ch Nisar instituted a case under Article VI, (high treason) against Musharraf. But soon Nawaz and the PML-N government realised that the then establishment was not happy with this decision.

Establishment also blamed Musharraf for not paying any heed to their advice in 2013, not to return or even not to participate in the elections. Advice was given through the then ISI chief, who reportedly went to Dubai. The army was concerned about his safety and security and also because they knew that PML- N government would take action against him.

Musharraf ignored both advices and listened to the advices of some of his friends who thought he was very popular since he had over a million followers on social media like twitter or Facebook. After few months an unwritten understanding was reached and Musharraf was again provided ‘safe exit’ by the PML-N government amid criticism. While his name from the ECL was removed by the interior ministry and court left it to the government to decide; it’s not a ‘secret’, how it all happened and why. The problem with the military dictators are that despite been ousted from power they considered themselves too powerful particularly if the rulers are civilians.

Musharraf also thought on the same lines and even publicly claimed that former army chief Gen Raheel Sharif got him out of the country and was not ready to give any credit to civilian government or Nawaz Sharif.

Against the advice of some of his former colleagues to avoid political statements or interviews; Musharraf fully engaged himself in politics but his party All Pakistan Muslim League (APML) never took off and now practically finished.

Sensing difficult days for Nawaz after Panama leaks, Musharraf started fresh attacks on former premier and the PML-N and provided indirect support to Imran Khan and the PTI as well as to the present judiciary’s decision against Nawaz Sharif. He was confident that after the elections he would get the relief and some sympathetic consideration for him from those whom he supported during elections and after Imran becomes the prime minister.

Now he realised that none of them are backing or even interested in providing any relief and there are reasons why the present civil and military leadership have decided to keep distance from his case and let the court decide.

Even then he should be thankful to Chief Justice Mian Saqib Nisar for allowing him protective bail with an assurance that he would not be arrested on return and would get full security and be kept in his house and not in any jail.

This is perhaps the maximum a court could do while Prime Minister Imran Khan is least bothered about his case and his former lawyer and now the present Law Minister Farogh Nasim has also distanced himself from all his cases. Musharraf certainly has the right to demand fair trial but even to seek that relief he has to return.

Although reports from Dubai suggest he is seriously ill but has he lost the confidence of the court as far as his ‘medical reports’ are concerned. The Supreme Court can constitute a high-powered medical team which could go to Dubai for his checkup and report back. The top court has already warned the former president not to push them to a situation which would be embarrassing for all those who in the past helped him.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO