Reading the Indian mind

To most Pakistanis, it is an enigma. One can never tell what an Indian mind may be thinking. And it doesn’t speak well of the two people.

Surely, the Indians too think the same of the Pakistanis which lays the foundation of pervading distrust. This was manifestly on display last week when India and Pakistan seemed to be inhabiting two different worlds using language that was only Greek to the other. Here’s how it went.

When Imran Khan came to power in Pakistan, Indians seemed excited. It turned out it wasn’t for improved prospects for better relations but more in recognition of a popular cricketer ascending to power – even if it was with a hostile neighbour. The Indian prime minister was one of the first to felicitate Imran Khan, and the first to write to him. Imran Khan thanked him, with hope that both sides could begin a new relationship. IK followed that with a letter proposing that the two countries’ foreign ministers meet up in New York during the annual UNGA session.

One other act of extraordinary favour was when Narendra Modi asked his High Commissioner to Pakistan Ajay Bisaria to carry a cricket bat signed by the entire Indian team as a gift for Imran Khan. Now if this isn’t the stuff dreams are made of, what is; especially when you note that the two nations had been almost incommunicado for the last four years – in a near-war, freely firing artillery barrages at each other and killing tens on either side. If it wasn’t for the blood and real lives lost on both sides, it would qualify to be perfectly comical in how events turned on a spur. We are talking here about two nuclear nations that remain trigger-happy on the slightest pretext; that makes it a tragicomedy. Yet these are real nations, engaged in serious geopolitical business, partaking of normally in an interconnected world but with a gory pantomime on the side.

But there is more to why after IK’s invitation was so expressly accepted the Indian government backtracked on its position within twenty-four hours – and in a venomously undiplomatic language. Its reasons for doing so were frivolous. The BSF soldier alleged to have been killed by the Pakistani Rangers had died twenty-four hours before the meeting was accepted. The Rangers vehemently denied having anything to do with the gory event, rather joining the Indians locating the soldiers body on the Indian side of Kashmir.

It is largely believed that Kashmiri freedom fighters, always on the prowl for avenging the atrocities by Indian regular forces against the innocent of Kashmir may have been involved. By way of retaliation against the Indian military’s excesses, they will enact a cost when a moment presents itself. This was probably such an opportunity. To label it on Pakistan was crass opportunism and a sad commentary on a bankrupt vision. As for the postage stamps, they were issued at least two months back even before elections were held in Pakistan. To cite those as another reason to justify a volte-face was actually comical. The people of the two nations pay with their blood for this sorry ineptness. The fault lies clearly in the minds than in the stars.

It is even more tragic when viewed with what softer coexistence promises in opportunity. CPEC and the related development throughout Pakistan provide an avenue of north-south connectivity which will enable communication, trade of goods and services, and travel, in a mutually beneficial engagement which can only bring greater prosperity and shared stakes. Together, this will bind nations and force them to modify archaic behaviours and find greater tolerance, thereby opening up paths for constructive dialogue and cooperative mechanisms. Pakistan’s invitation to Saudi Arabia and the UAE to become partners to this Chinese-backed effort at developing the remote regions through better trade and industrial opportunity can only mean greater good for the entire region. Pakistan was considering opening up routes between India and Afghanistan for transit trade, long held back because of persisting hostility. Improvement in relations with India would have only hastened the entire process. India’s refusal to meet up after having agreed to it has patently thwarted that possibility for the region to connect and find prosperity.

And why would the Indians meet up? Their short-termism to hurt Pakistan through regional isolation, maligning it as a terror-sponsoring nation and hurting its economy no end, was patently myopic. India sacrificed its long-term gains at the cost of its short-term goal to hurt Pakistan. Rather than engender good, it hung on to evil. Having imposed a two-front war on it – shelling the eastern borders incessantly and conspiring terror from Afghanistan against it over the last decade – the cost accrued to Pakistan was heavy.

Without being at war, India has imposed a war on Pakistan, and the Pakistani society and the economy have persevered through this long test. Why would India ease on that gauntlet? Forget statesmanship, what it delivers to India is the satisfaction of seeing Pakistan reeling under pressure which Indian had hoped would wilt us. It didn’t. And that causes a reverse hypnosis of even severer vengeance and contrived arrogance. Any signs that Imran’s elevation for a change in Indian stance was a cry too far.

China broke the gridlock. Forget the fact that the region could be knit into an island of prosperity – plugging into the huge energy reservoirs in Russia, Iran and the Gulf and enable movement of both goods and services between South, Central and South-West Asia, and change lives through shared prosperity. Making Pakistan hit the dust is a priority for an arrogant and dangerous India. Modi could not rise above and be a Vajpayee. As a consequence life will be as has been; and the two peoples of India and Pakistan will be the poorer for it. One nation’s descent into strategic lows is an entire region’s shame.

Yes, there are matters of internal troubles: of Modi having been exposed for graft in the defence equipment purchase as told by former president Hollande of France; and of the RSS and the Indian media who along with Corporate India are the prime benefactors of sustaining the Hindutva order. This nexus will ensure that India keeps the hate going. The Indian army chief’s recent blabbers were nothing else but to deviate attention from this developing story within India. A military chief resorting to rancour in support of his political masters – talk of servility against the dictates of professional poise.

In the meanwhile, developing an alternate paradigm of success through CPEC may just be right for Pakistan to build on. Indian plugging in would have meant even greater and faster prosperity – but that is not to be. As this prosperity avenue takes shape, let India watch idly. When their arrogance has mellowed, we can then let them transit and trade, and plug in. Till then, adios, you sad spectacle. Kashmir will live as will its brave people, and so will Pakistan and CPEC. Pakistan shall await your rising beyond your limitations.

Email: shhzdchdhry@yahoo.com