Will Humayun Akhtar avenge his 2008 defeat by Saad Rafique in 2018?

LAHORE: A tough contest is expected between two former Federal Ministers in NA-131 where Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has fielded Humayun Akhtar Khan against Khawaja Saad Rafique who lost to Imran Khan with a very narrow margin.

Humayun Akhtar Khan is back in election arena with a gap of 10 years, after he suffered defeat in 2008 general elections from both National Assembly seats, NA-124 and NA-125 he was contesting from.

On the other hand, Khwaja Saad Rafique, who suffered the first defeat of his political career in the general elections in 2018, is also actively participating in electioneering to make a comeback. Saad Rafique is already a sitting MPA.

NA-131, a constituency from where Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Chairman Imran Khan emerged victorious after a tough contest and by-polls are expected to be held in October. Imran Khan has fielded former Federal Minister of Pervez Musharraf era, Humayun Akhtar Khan from this seat, a constituency which is not new for him. Humayun, who joined PTI just a couple of months ago, had won the NA elections from this area twice, once in 1993 and later in 2002, both after tough contests. The present NA-131 is comprised of areas including Cantt, DHA, parts of Chungi Amar Sadhu, Ghazi Road and areas falling close to the new air port.

In 1988 and 1990 general elections, this area was considered as the strongest hold of PPP while it was NA-93 then from where Aitezaz Ahsen got elected for two consecutive terms. However, it slipped into the hands of PPP by 1993. In 1997 elections, PML-N’s Mian Abdul Waheed won from here whereas in 2002 general elections, Humayun, after a nail biting finish emerged victorious against PPP’s Naveed Chaudhry and PML-N’s Akram Zaki.

PML-N re established its authority on this seat in 2008 and also won it in 2013, though the results were declared controversial by PTI. In 2018 polls, its candidates Khawaja Saad Rafique lost to Imran and this time, it was PML-N that declared the results controversial.

Now, on the vacant seat, Humayun is contesting on the symbol of bat and Saad Rafique is striving to win the seat again. PPP’s Asim Bhatti has also filed nomination but according to locals, match is expected between PML-N and PTI. PTI at present has the advantage of being the ruling party.

Moreover, with the influence of its noted figures like Abdul Aleem Khan and Humayun himself who also have personal vote bank in this constituency, PTI enjoys an edge which could be doubled if its voters from DHA, Cantt, including large number of youth, women turn up to the polling stations to vote for PTI.

On the other hand, the development narrative of PML-N still exists and many of its supporters still rate the era of former Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif as the best when it comes to the uplift work.

Saad Rafique, who remained MNA from this seat for 10 years, is now rated amongst the top brass of PML-N and with both sitting MPAs to his side, his election campaign is also quite vibrant. However, a factor that may recharge the PML-N voters once again is the sympathy wave for Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz after the death of former first lady Begum Kulsoom Nawaz. If PTI suffers a defeat, the reaction of PML-N voters after the death of Begum Kulsoom Nawaz would be the prime reason behind it.

Both Humayun and Khawaja Saad Rafique are experienced campaigners. Humayun has served as MNA for four terms including 1990, 1993, 1997 and 2002 whereas Saad served as MPA in 1997, got elected MNA for three terms including 2002, 2008 and 2013.

1990: Humayun Akhter Khan, who is son of former DG ISI late Gen Akhter Abdul Rehman, made his electoral debut in the 1990 general elections as the candidate of Islami Jamhuri Ittehad.

He was fielded by Nawaz Sharif from the then NA-92 (currently NA-124) and got elected against PPP’s Sheikh Rafique Ahmed. In that contest, Humayun Akhtar Khan got 57,866 votes and PPP’s Rafique Ahmed Sheikh, who contested as Peoples Democratic Alliance candidate stood at number two with 44,384 votes.

1993: In the 1993 general elections, PML-N Quaid Nawaz Sharif didn’t award ticket to Humayun from the seat he won in 1990. He sent him to a new constituency that was NA-93, and one of the strongest holds of PPP. PPP under Aitezaz had won this seat with big margins in 1988 and even in 1990 when rest of its candidates lost from Lahore.

Humayun Akhtar Khan after a very vibrant election campaign in 1993 emerged victorious from NA-93 and succeeded in defeating Aitezaz Ahsen with a margin of around 4000 votes. In that contest, Humayun got 66564 votes whereas Aitezaz got 62713 votes. From the two provincial seats falling under NA-93, one, PP-118 was won by PPP in form of Hanif Ramay and other was by PML-N in form of Harun Akhter, brother of Humayun.

1997: In the 1997 general elections, Humayun Akhtar was refused ticket by his party head Nawaz Sharif and his differences with the PML-N leadership became obvious. However, he got a chance in by election and returned to National Assembly for the third term while winning a seat from Rahim Yar Khan.

2002: In the 2002 general elections, Humayun Akhtar Khan was fielded by PML-Q from the old NA-93 that had turned into NA-125 by then. After another tough contest against PPP and PML-N, Humayun Akhtar emerged victorious and rival parties declared his victory result of rigging. According to official results of Election Commission, Humayun of PML-Q stood first with 22405 votes followed by 21186 of PML-N’s Akram Zaki and 21152 of PPP’s Naveed Chaudhry. PPP candidate Naveed Chaudhry claimed that he had won that election but the Musharraf government changed the result and put him at number three so that he couldn’t go for filing a recounting petition.

2008: Like most of the Q leaguers in Punjab, Humayun Akhtar Khan also suffered a massive defeat in the hands of PML-N candidates in the 2008 general elections which were held with Sharifs back in Pakistan.

He contested from two seats, NA-124 and NA-125 and suffered defeat from both with a margin of over 60, 000 votes. From NA-124, PML-N’s Sheikh Rohail Asgher won the seat while bagging 71342 votes followed by PPP’s Ayaz Imran who got 23412 votes.

Humayun Akhtar Khan stood at number three while securing 10881 votes. In this way, margin between his votes and the votes of the winner was almost over 60, 000.

From NA-125, Khawaja Saad Rafique of PML-N won the seat and got 70752 votes followed by PPP’s Naveed Chaudhry who got 24592 votes. Humayun Akhtar Khan in that contest stood at number three with 13702 votes. Margin between his votes and the votes of winner was almost 57, 000. He didn’t contest the 2013 general elections and he is back in election campaign as PTI candidate in the 2018 by polls.