More control than destruction

There are two questions about Pakistan authorities’ recent moves against the MQM. Why is it happening and how far will it go? There are a number explanations for the decisions to raid Nine-Zero: execute Saulat Mirza (later rescinded), file a case against Altaf Hussain and summon the British High Commissioner Philip Barton to talk about it all.
First, the Peshawar school massacre has changed the atmosphere. For years western powers badgered Pakistan to ‘do more’. But all that diplomatic effort – and the associated attached aid programmes – had less impact than Mullah Fazlullah’s decision to target army children.
But the TTP is not alone in making tactical blunders. Altaf Hussain’s repeated, harsh criticisms of the army – even if generally retracted the next day – have been unacceptable to an institution that does not take disapproval lightly.
Finally there is Gen Rizwan Akhtar’s experience in Karachi. No one else could have ordered the raid on Nine-Zero and whilst the MQM continues to insist on its innocence, the ISI chief seems to have formed an unshakeable opinion as to what the party is and how it achieves its objectives.
So how serious is this for the MQM? Are we witnessing an attempt just to frighten and manipulate the party or is the intention to mount a longer lasting and more destructive campaign?
While it’s too soon to give a definitive answer the evidence so far suggests this is more about control than destruction.
There are four relevant investigations in the UK. Altaf Hussain’s London speeches have been assessed in the light of UK laws regarding incitement to violence. Having trawled through his orations the decision was taken not to proceed against him.
There are also tax cases against the MQM. These are of limited significance because the party has sufficient the funds to rectify any unpaid tax bills.
That leaves the UK investigations into money laundering and the murder of senior MQM leader Imran Farooq. It is clear that for the UK authorities, the murder case is the higher priority. The British government worries about any signs of foreign political disputes being fought out on the streets of London.
Altaf Hussain strongly denies any wrongdoing in relation to either case.
For years now the UK has been asking Pakistan to hand over two men suspected of involvement in the Imran Farooq murder. The UK authorities believe that Mohsin Ali Syed and Mohammed Kashif Khan Kamran might reveal details as to what happened to Imran Farooq and why.
A Pakistani decision to hand over the two men would have real significance. But Islamabad has its own demands. It is now asking London to hand over Altaf Hussain to face incitement charges in Pakistan. It is very striking that in his communications with the British government subsequent to the Nine Zero raid, Pakistan’s interior minister raised only the incitement case and did not even mention the Imran Farooq enquiry.
One issue relating to Altaf Hussain possible return to Pakistan is less important than many believe. Since Pakistan could use incitement laws that don’t carry the death penalty, the British would not be constrained by any concern that Altaf Hussain could face capital punishment if he were returned. In making this determination the British cannot speculate about whether other legal cases he might face in the future carry the death penalty.
Yet even if that death penalty is not a relevant consideration there are a number of reasons why it is very unlikely that Altaf Hussain would be handed over by the UK to Pakistan. First, the British would want to be sure that the timescale of any Pakistani case would not disrupt the money laundering proceedings in the UK. Given the slow and erratic pace of Pakistan’s judicial system it would be unlikely the British could be reassured on this point. Secondly, the UK would also worry that publicity generated by the Pakistani incitement case could prejudice the UK’s money laundering case. And finally the UK would be concerned that Altaf Hussain might never come back to Britain to face the case.
There are reports that British and Pakistani security officials are considering ways in which the two suspects in the Imran Farooq case could be sent to Britain. As the two countries do not have an extradition treaty such a transfer would be difficult - but not impossible. When he was still a British MP Mohamed Sarwar managed to get Pakistan to hand over three men accused (and later convicted) of the 2004 murder of a 15-year-old boy in the Scottish city of Glasgow.
There are also rumours of direct contacts between British and Pakistani intelligence officials and suggestions that the two suspects – currently believed to be in ISI custody – could be sent to a third country and processed for extradition there. In fact the UK could not accept such arrangements. Such a manoeuvre would be very similar to rendition and there would be a high possibility that British courts would find it to be an abuse of process.
With political will these issues could be resolved. But it is quite possible that noting much will happen.
Pakistan will continue to ask for Altaf Husain and the British will continue to ask for the two suspects in the Imran Farooq case. These different demands could develop into a standoff. So even though both governments are becoming more hostile towards the MQM, it is quite possible that they will fail to agree on effective legal moves against the party. If that’s the case then the MQM will be down but not out – which may be exactly where Pakistan’s deep state wants it.
The writer is a freelance British journalist, one of the hosts of BBC’s Newshour and the author of the new political thriller, Target Britain.
Email: bennettjones@hotmail.com
Twitter: @OwenBennettJone