Lebanon elections

The results are in after the first election in Lebanon in nine years. While it is still unclear who will form government, the coverage has focused on major gains for two parties – Hezbollah and Amal – in the multi-religious state. Held under a controversial new electoral law, the much-delayed election was greeted with low levels of enthusiasm by the Lebanese public. The new electoral system has also been controversial; it claims to combine two contradictory electoral systems: proportional representation and first past the post. Voters must vote for a political party in their region and could also choose a preferred candidate from a party’s list. The Lebanese interior ministry had claimed that it offered voters more ‘choice’ as well as guaranteed more representation for minorities, in comparison to the previous first-past-the-post system, but most analysts remain concerned by the mismatched marriage between two systems that seem antithetical to each other.

The results have surprised some. Hezbollah and Amal managed to win 29 seats out of 128 in parliament. The parties are said to control 11 other seats. The biggest loser was Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s Future Movement, which lost 13 seats to end up with 21. Hariri had, earlier this year, resigned and disappeared in Saudi Arabia before returning to Lebanon amidst concerns that the Saudis had kidnapped him. The situation seemed exceptional to outsiders, but seemed to be norm for the Lebanese people who have seen the government collapse twice and the presidency sit vacant for 29 months without new elections taking place. The consensus seems to be that the same elites will hold and share power without respecting the desires of the public. Hezbollah could be in a position to form a coalition government with the Christian-led Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), which it has been allies with for the last twelve years. Currently, Hezbollah has vote power against constitutional changes. We will have to wait and see what kind of ruling coalition emerges. However, it is the gains for Hezbollah that will increase regional tension. Both Israel and Saudi Arabia are unlikely to be happy with the results. Hezbollah has been a means of support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad while Lebanon remains host to over one million Syrian refugees. Lebanon’s strict sectarian quotas for elections and selecting the executive are likely to produce much negotiating in the coming days as it becomes clear who will run Lebanon in the coming years.