Deals and deadlines

Only a day after issuing a joint call with US President Donald Trump for a more wide-ranging deal with Iran, French President Emmanuel Macron backtracked sharply by stating that Trump was likely to scrap the 2015 Iran-US nuclear deal. It speaks to the mindless flip-flopping on the part of the current US administration that Trump is on the one hand willing to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to discuss North Korea’s nuclear programme but is ready to scrap the progress made by the Obama administration to impose significant curbs on Iran’s nuclear programme. The decision to keep Iran’s missile programme as well as its interference in Middle-Eastern conflicts out of the debate was strategic – which meant that Iran agreed to pay the cost of a significant chuck of sanctions still imposed on its economy. If anything, by respecting the existing deal, Trump could indeed push for a more wide-ranging agreement with Iran. This is in line with the US State Department’s position on the matter: it wants a supplemental deal, instead of scrapping the existing agreement. With the May 12 deadline for the Trump administration to renew its commitment to the sanctions relief for Iran looming, Macron has told the American media that Trump could make the ‘insane’ decision to’get rid of the deal.’

One of the key aims of Macron’s visit to the US was to agree to a path forward on Iran as the deadline looms. The French president’s offer to steer negotiations were seemingly dismissed by Trump. This led Macron to issue a severe criticism of the US for backtracking on a number of global agreements, including the Paris climate change accord. Despite what appeared to be an overly fraternal meeting at times, Macron made his differences with Trump clear. The trouble with France promising to not abandon the Iran deal is that the deal can barely survive in any real sense without US backing – unless all of Europe unites to turn the US into an international pariah.

The fact that Macron spent three days trying to get Trump to see the light confirms that this is certainly not going to be the case any time soon. A similar fate has befallen German chancellor Angela Merkel’s efforts of convincing Trump not to act hastily. Keeping the deal with Iran ensures a modicum of influence in Iran from Western powers if they ever become serious about negotiating peace in the civil wars ravaging the Middle East. Geopolitical alliances in the Middle East need to be realigned to pursue a path to peace. The US administration itself appears divided on the fate of the Iran nuclear deal. One would hope that sanity prevails in the White House as the deadline approaches.