Final outcome of the trial against former president and military dictator Gen Pervez Musharraf (retd) is still uncertain. What is certain is the fact that he is ready to return but not likely before the formation of a 'caretaker' set-up in May at the end of PML-N government.
His return and trial will coincide with the trial and verdict of his arch political rival former prime minister Nawaz Sharif. Some believe that it could be the beginning of across-the-board accountability in the country or just be seen as a 'balancing act,' following a criticism as why only politicians have been made accountable.
Sources close to the former president hinted that Musharraf, who time and again promised to return before elections 2018, has recently expressed his confidence in the superior judiciary and expects a 'fair trial' despite his reservation over the possible victimization by the PML-N government.
His legal team has already asked for at least six weeks for his return on 'doctors advise,' a clear indication that he doesn't want to return during PML-N government. Even if the court rejects his plea and order the Interior Ministry to bring him back through Interpol, the process will take four to eight weeks.
Sources said regular appearance of Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz in NAB cases and their accusations that only politicians face trial and conviction has drawn mixed reaction and questions have been raised in cross-section of society regarding ‘double standards’.
The caretaker set up will come by mid May, and sources said Musharraf expects some relief and assurance of 'fair trial.' He will face 'multiple cases' including the one under Article VI of the Constitution for putting the Constitution in abeyance on Nov 3, 2007, when he declared emergency plus. Besides, he has also been named in the murder of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, something which he had denied and on the contrary suspected the role of former president Asif Ali Zardari.
The timing of his return just before general elections will be interesting as the verdict against disqualified prime minister Nawaz Sharif, whose government in 2013 arrested Musharraf and invoked Article VI, is also expected in May.
The trial of a former civilian prime minister and ex-military dictator would be a landmark in Pakistan's judicial, political and Constitutional history. Never before, any dictator has faced trial and that too of 'subverting' the Constitution.
Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam Nawaz can face long sentences, if the court finds them guilty of the alleged corruption and money laundering. The conviction of Nawaz can also exert pressure on Musharraf, as his case particularly under Article VI is far more serious in nature.
The two most high profile trials are likely to overshadow the political heat and tempo of general elections which are due in July or August. Musharraf and his team know the possible consequences of the trial and return to Pakistan. Therefore, as a first line of defense they have decided not to return during PML-N government.
Secondly, Musharraf is seeking security from Defense Ministry rather than the Interior. Thirdly, he may also move the court to declare his house as 'sub-jail' like it was done in 2013 as he apprehends threat to his life in jail.
His legal team has already moved court for at least six weeks timeframe for his return. Much now depends on the Special Court orders. Interior Minister Ahsan Iqbal has said the government will implement the court orders including bringing him back through, 'Interpol'. "We will provide him whatever security possible under the law for such accused," the minister said.
Sources said Musharraf will seek special security from law enforcement agencies other than of police in view of the threats he has been facing from some non-state actors. He twice survived suicide attempts during his own government.
Although Musharraf went abroad on the orders of the superior court after his name was excluded from ECL, many believe it was the outcome of an understanding between the then 'civil and military' leadership.
While the Nawaz government faced a lot of criticism from the opposition parties for allowing former dictator to flee the country, former interior minister Ch Nisar Ali Khan denied that the decision was part of any deal. He was of the view that the then government and his ministry had filed an appeal against the trial court order which allowed him to go abroad in the Sindh High Court and then in the Supreme Court but the appeals were rejected.
Musharraf’s name was only removed from ECL after the court allowed him to go abroad. Nisar said it is a record that his name remained on ECL for two and a half years. It was during his ministry that for the first time a new ECL policy was formulated and over 8,000 names were removed from ECL and since then it is the Parliamentary Committee, which is empowered to take the decision on the request of NAB or other institutions, Nisar said.
However, Musharraf once said in an interview that the former army chief Gen Raheel Sharif played a role in Musharraf’s release. The then establishment had advised Musharraf not to return to Pakistan before 2013 general elections as reports suggested victory for PML-N and Nawaz Sharif had made up his mind for his trial.
Sources said Musharraf was first allowed to go abroad in 2008 under an understanding between former president Asif Ali Zardari and the then army chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kyani. Musharraf during his nine years of government remained under serious threat because of his pro-US and anti-Taliban stance and twice survived suicide attacks from al-Qaeda and Taliban. Therefore, Gen Raheel through his intelligence chief advised the former army chief not to return.
Musharraf ignored the advice which caused serious embarrassment to the establishment when he was arrested and put on trial under Article VI. He was twice produced before the Special Court before he was shifted to 'hospital' in mysterious circumstances.
Gen. Musharraf, who is now the president of All Pakistan Muslim League, is living in self exile since 2015. He has challenged his 2013 disqualification for life in a bid to contest elections in 2018.
While Nawaz Sharif's disqualification by the Supreme Court in 'Panama case' followed by his trial in NAB court, have already generated too much political heat and turned into a PML-N and Sharif's anti-judiciary narrative, Gen Musharraf’s trial under Article VI will be quite a landmark in Pakistan's 70 years history as it is the first against any military dictator.
The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang
Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO
