Emerging political trends

In the emerging political trends, the recent uprising in the country could have its impact in the next general elections, which perhaps would hurt the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) the most, in Punjab and the MQM in urban Sindh.

This may not only be a challenge for mainstream political parties but also for religious parties, which are meeting in the coming days for gearing themselves for the next elections.

As the two established religious parties, Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI) agreed on the revival of Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) and formal announcement is due after its meeting in Karachi in the first week of December, the Defence of Pakistan Council (DPC), led by JUI-F’s Maulana Samiul Haq and the newly formed Milli Muslim League (MML) would also be meeting this week, to decide the possibility of its alliance with Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

The MMA, which in 2002 swept polls in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and also left its impact on urban Sindh, could affect both the PML-N and the PTI, particularly the latter. However, the MMA received its first setback when the JUI-S decided to go with PTI instead of the MMA. Maulana Samiul Haq and KP Chief Minister, Pervez Khattak played important role in bringing JUI(S) and PTI accord.

The JI, which has not yet break its ties with the PTI nor JUI-F and quit PML-N, but sources said, both under pressure to leave PML and PTI, after the revival of the MMA. While Maulana Fazlur Rehman is still reluctant to leave the government, JI Shura already considered fallout of its alliance with the PTI.

On the other hand, when the PTI and the DPC would join hands, it would not be easy for Imran Khan and PTI, as the MML is still facing problems in getting itself registered because of its affiliation with the Jamaatud Dawa (JuD).

What the two alliances so far have not considered in inviting Tehreek-e-Labaik and its leader, Khadim Hussain Rizvi, they cannot ignore the recent uprising and its impact on common religious vote bank.

The new party and its trend also reminded many of the rise of Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan (JUP) of the 1970s, when they had powerful leaders like Maulana Shah Ahmad Noorani and Maulana Abdus Sattar Niazi. The JUP remained a big political force despite its failure to get much electoral support. Later on, it lost its impact due to division within the JUP and as a result of the fallout of Afghan jihad in Pakistan.

JI Karachi Ameer Hafiz Naeem admitted that this new party, Tehreek-e-Labaik and its narrative is strong and attracting the religious vote bank. "I can feel its impact in Karachi, too,” he added.

This situation may not be good news, either for the PML-N in Punjab or the MQM-P and the PSP, in urban Sindh. The spontaneous protest in Punjab and large participation in different cities, attacks on the houses of some federal and provincial ministers, few resignations of MNAs and MPAs of the ruling party, already cause concern in the PML camp.

All these developments had taken place at a time when former prime minister Nawaz Sharif was about to launch his political campaign from Dec 2, which is now likely to delay. Its impact could be far more damaging for the PML-N than perhaps Panama. It now required serious soul searching in the ruling camp. Whatever political gain Nawaz Sharif had got after his disqualification from Supreme Court, through GT Road march was lost at Faizabad.

The PML-N and the government should blame no one but themselves for the last 25 days of political mishandling. The party could lose its vote bank because of both MML and Tehreek-e-Labaik, as Nawaz Sharif's traditional vote bank has been the right wing.

Now, if the MML manages to get Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) registration, it would go all out against Nawaz Sharif and his Kashmiri vote bank while the rise of Tehreek-e-Labaik, will attract strong Barelvi vote.

In a disturbing political scenario for Sharif, and the damage already caused by Imran Khan and the PTI, these new developments and rise of these two parties would badly affect the PML-N’s traditional vote bank.

How the PML-N would overcome this crisis is a real challenge for former prime minister Nawaz Sharif. The accord which the government had finally reached with the protesters of Tehreek-e-Labaik and that too after army chief's intervention, could have been done within the first few days including the resignation of the federal law minister.

In politics, timing is very important and by delaying the accord, the PML-N government also missed the opportunity. In the past, the late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto first refused the opposition’s demand for fresh elections, which led to massive unrest in the country. He finally agreed to the same demand, but after losing the initiative.

Tehreek-e-Labaik rightly termed this accord its victory, which gave them political boost, needed before the next elections. The accord also came after a failed operation, which had not spread the movement throughout Pakistan, but caused major embarrassment and damage to the government.

In the last few months, two new religious parties have emerged on national scene. Milli Muslim League (MML), which is a political face of Jamaatud Dawa (JuD) and Tehreek-e-Labaik. These parties are now showing their impact on our politics and we may see their active participation in the next elections.

While the MML still finding difficulties in getting itself registered with the ECP, Tehreek-e-Labaik is already showing its presence both in the by-elections as well on the street. JuD's political face, the MML, is seen as a change in national security policy to bring those elements in the mainstream politics, which for years kept themselves away from electoral politics, as they considered democracy and vote against their ideology.

The government committed another blunder when it banned the electronic and social media. The ban was also lifted after the meeting of army chief with prime minister. It will be interesting to watch as to which way Tehreek-e-Labaik would go, as its leadership already announced that they would contest for the next elections from all over Pakistan. During the last 25 days, it has already left its impact and capacity to organise protest.

In its first election, in NA-120, it surprised many when the Tehreek got over 7,000 votes, and came third after the PML-N and the PTI, and left behind PPP and Jamaat-e-Islami. In Peshawar by-election, they did not get that kind of response. There are clear indications that Tehreek's base camp would be Punjab and urban Sindh.

So far, they have not announced any support or plan to join any alliance like Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) or Defence Council of Pakistan, the two major religious parties alliance comprising over one dozen parties, which have called their meetings to consider their formation.

For the federal government and the PML-N, it required serious thinking as to how to come out from this situation and do some damage control. The developments of the last 25 days have pushed former prime minister Nawaz Sharif and the PML-N on the back foot because of their own political blunders, one after another.

These developments may now force Sharif to review his politics and plans as it may not be easy for him in the next few weeks to organise public meeting and rallies, which the party had earlier planned.

Tehreek-e-Labaik can now cause serious dent not only to PML-N in Punjab, but also be a challenge for other parties if its head, Mualana Khadim Hussain Rizvi, manages to attract voters in southern Punjab in particular but in central Punjab. It can have its impact in Karachi and Hyderabad, too, which once use to be stronghold of Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan (JUP) during the days of the late Maulana Shah Ahmad Noorani.

Thus, the rise of Tehreek-e-Labaik can also pose serious challenge to Muttahida Qaumi Movement, MQM (P) and Pak-Sarzameen Party (PSP). While the religious parties still stand divided as we may see more than one alliances comprising over dozen parties in two major camps, the rise of a new party, Tehreek-e-Labaik, and the MML factor can play decisive role in make or break of PML-N vote bank.

With parties like the PPP, ANP already down and confined to Sindh and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, the fall of MQM and PML-N, would leave ground wide open for right wing parties.

 The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO