Will Zardari and Sharif reconcile?

As political tension is building up, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, for the first time, has hit back at former president Asif Ali Zardari, saying he (Zardari) wants to please someone by abusing him. But, this is exactly what happened when two years back Asif Zardari wanted a meeting with Nawaz, a day after his controversial speech against the establishment and the PM House had regretted it. So, it is now tit-for-tat situation. What led to this situation and if the two leaders would ever reconcile in near future, is an important question at the moment.

"Whom he wants to please by abusing me,” Sharif asked, a day after Defence Minister Khwaja Mohammad Asif admitted that Zardari did not respond to his repeated phone calls.

Sources said Zardari wants to see how Sharif handles the crisis he is facing after being disqualified by the Supreme Court and how he confronts or reconciles with the establishment.

Apparently, the PPP leader is trying to reconcile with the establishment, something which Sharif did when Mr Zardari was in trouble and he wanted to visit the former PM in the past.

Sharif today is fighting the battle of his political survival and facing a situation which no political leader in the recent past had faced. He has been disqualified by the Supreme Court in his own government, facing tough NAB references and stiff opposition both from archrival Imran Khan and once friendly PPP. He is also having problems within his own party.

Both Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif, more or less, have same reasons for not meeting each other, when in need. But, if that means that they have also closed all doors on reconciliation, or they are waiting for the right time.

The kind of tension persists today between the two, is very unlikely in near future as it looks like more personal than based on some principles. What led to this break-up between the two?

The love-and-hate relationship between the two leaders have a long history, but the major break-up between them had a lot to do with the Karachi operation, and the day it implicated the PPP and that too against the close aides of Zardari.

Finally, the raid on Zardari's closes aide, Anwar Majeed's office, and alleged recovery of weapons from one of his houses on the day when Zardari had returned home after a long stay in Dubai, did not go well and he strongly felt that it was more a message for him than actual operation against Majeed.

The mysterious disappearance of three close associates of former president, few months back, who were allegedly picked up by the intelligence agencies, practically closed all chances of reconciliation.

From Dr Asim to Anwar Majeed, the PPP leader strongly felt that if former prime minister was not directly or indirectly behind these actions, he did not take any action also. On the contrary, he and his interior ministry created hurdles when they wanted to remove IGP Sindh.

A source said the PPP leader felt that Sharif also remained silent in one of the meetings of the apex committee, presided over by the former PM, in which practically the PPP Sindh government was charge-sheeted. There was a heated debate between Zardari and Chaudhry Nisar, but the presentation from the than DG Rangers, Major-General Bilal Akbar (now Lt-General) and former DG, ISI, Lt-General (retd) Rizwan Akhtar, which made the PPP leader and Sindh CM nervous.

A source present in the meeting also disclosed that Zardari was not happy the way his provincial government was charge-sheeted, and that too in the presence of the then army chief, General (retd) Raheel Sharif. “The presentation given in that meeting related to massive corruption in almost every department, nexus between crime and politics and what followed was an action against some officials and leaders linked to the PPP,” he added.

After the meeting, former president, during his one-on-one meeting with Nawaz Sharif, alerted him that the possible action against his men could lead to the break-up of their relationship.

While the MQM alleged militants and many of its leaders were on the run or arrested, it was now PPP's turn and it all started with the massive operation against Lyari gang. Raid on Fisheries Cooperative Society and arrest of Nisar Morai, escape of Manzoor Kaka, head of Sindh Building Control Authority, were the clear indications that operation had been launched against the PPP, after the MQM.

Zardari was not happy with his CM Syed Qaim Ali Shah, who too looked completely helpless and decided to replace him when the political bombshell was dropped i.e. arrest of Dr Asim Hussain, one of the most trusted aides, who at the time of arrest was CM's adviser and came to Karachi from Dubai after seeking clearance from Shah, that all was well.

For the first time, Zardari issued a hard-hitting statement against Nawaz Sharif in which he said, “Mian Sahib, I would never forget what you did. You have stabbed me in the back.”

For the first time, the PPP leadership including CM started showing their strong reservations against rangers, NAB and FIA. They felt that since rangers and the FIA both work under Federal Interior Ministry, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan was involved in actions against the PPP leaders. Qaim Ali Shah once went to Nawaz Sharif, and lodged strong protest. Sharif assured him that he would take notice but, operation continued.

During all this period, even a hard-hitting press release, also issued by the rangers in which the name of Bilawal House was also mentioned followed by stories of recovery of money from one of minister's home etc.

This writer has also learnt that at one stage, Sharif asked Chaudhry Nisar that these actions would hamper reconciliation with the PPP and Zardari, but NAB and FIA got more active.

Things went from bad to worse when Chaudhry Nisar, who initially was the first who reacted against the manner in which Dr Asim was arrested, came out publicly to claim that he has video of Asim's confessions before the JIT.

This made situation worse and brought both the PPP and the PML-N on verge of confrontation.

Rangers and FIA raid at Sindh Buildings Control Authority further aggravated the situation between the PPP and the PML-N or Zardari and Sharif.

At one point, the Sindh government decided to curtail the powers of the rangers and also made an attempt to stop functioning of NAB and FIA in Sindh. But, Zardari also knows that it was not merely the decision of the federal government as he himself had witnessed the mood of the establishment in Governor’s House meeting.

Federal and Sindh governments once again came close to confrontation when the issue of the transfer of IGP Sindh, AD Khwaja, came up. It only added to the frustration of the PPP leadership.

The source present in that famous meeting also disclosed that he twice saw the former prime minister, tried to calm down Zardari as well as Chaudhry Nisar, but the presentation alerted the former president and he decided to go into temporary exile but, not before he made a highly emotional and controversial speech.

It was a well attended meeting and those present included former army chief, General (retd) Raheel Sharif, former DG ISI Lt-Gen Rizwan Akhtar, the then corps commander, and now the ISI chief, Lt-Gen Naveed Mukhtar, former ISI chief Lt-Gen (retd) Rizwan Akhtar, and the then DG Ranger Lt-Gen Rizwan Akhtar, beside former chief minister Syed Qaim Ali Shah and former governor, Dr Ishratul Ibad.

Sources said what Zardari was expecting from Sharif was an intervention and stopping of action against his men. Sources said he had even warned Sharif that after taking action against his men, the PML-N could be the next.

Therefore, differences apparently between the two are more personal than on certain principles worked out between the two leaders in 2013. They made a good beginning when for the first time in Pakistan's political history, we saw a smooth transfer of power when former president gave a grand reception to the then elected PM Nawaz Sharif. He also thanked him and the PPP.

"I will not do politics for four years and will not create any hurdles for you,” Zardari told Nawaz Sharif. The PML-N formed government at Centre and in Punjab and for the first time, despite majority, it allowed National Party of Dr Abdul Malik to form government in Balochistan. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) formed coalition in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and the PPP in Sindh.

Today, Zardari believes possible end to Sharif's politics, which may pave the way for his party to fill the space along with the PTI. But Imran is in no mood to sit with Zardari. And if Imran's movement picks up and threatens both the PPP and the PML-N, it may lead to the revival of their relationship.

At present, Zardari wants Sharif out of politics and would not make his second move unless the final verdict comes from the NAB court. By keeping distance from Sharif, he is also looking for relief for himself and his men in Sindh, which so far he has not got.

Whether Zardari and Nawaz will follow the politics of confrontation and then reconcile with each other? Or we may see a possible breakthrough in the next few months; let’s wait and see.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO