Retired Gen Pervez Musharraf is now a history and has no political future. He ruled this country for nine years as dictators have no tenure. His emergency plus on November 3, 2007 was an attempt to prolong his rule for few more years, but he failed in getting political support as well as the backing from his own Institution, which finally led to his exit five months later in an embarrassing position.
Let the history judge Musharraf, his rule and his two coups – Oct 12, 1999 and Nov 3, 2007. The way forward should be democracy and rule of law. It is now up to the civil and military leadership to ensure that the change should only come through democratic process.
This is the only lesson of November 3, which would be observed tomorrow at a time when former PM Nawaz Sharif will appear before the NAB court as his political fate depend on this trial.
While there are all kinds of speculations, debate, rumours about delay in elections, technocrat government for two to three years, but the ground situation is different due to independent judiciary and powerful media – the two institutions which were the main target of emergency plus.
Musharraf like any other military dictator may have done a few good things in his long tenure, but the main difference between dictators and democrats is the legitimacy to rule. Illegal and extra-constitutional actions require legitimacy, which they often get through handpicked judiciary under PCO as Musharraf did twice and also some 'Siyasi Yateem’.
Musharraf will not be tried. At least I don't see it is coming. Instead, the man – Sharif – who tried to have his trial is now on a trial. No one opposes Sharif's trial and he should be punished, if the court finds him guilty, but, why there are if and buts when it comes to Musharraf.
The former president is rightly thankful to the former army chief, retired Gen Raheel Sharif, for playing a role in his safe exit – not only in leaving the country but practically rescuing him. The chances of his trial under Article VI have practically vanished.
So, let the history judge his action and rule. History has already given its verdict in the case against Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and even his worst opponents not only praise him today but also term his execution and trial a judicial murder.
Musharraf's emergency plus – a term coined by his advisers (some of whom are now in Sharif's cabinet) and a few in PTI as well – was aimed at crushing judiciary and media, but they failed in both.
The former president had missed the opportunity to hand over power more than once, particularly when he had signed the Legal Framework Order and the 17th Amendment. Had he honoured his commitment, he could have created history, but he didn’t.
Musharraf's return to Pakistan in 2013 to participate in the elections turned out to be an eye opener for all dictators who thought they are popular among the masses, but in the ultimate analysis would go into history only as dictators.
The year 2007 was the worst for Musharraf who lost even his political friends after promulgating emergency plus. For instance, the Chaudhrys of Gujrat, which supported Musharraf for nine long years, backed out after he signed NRO with former PM Benazir Bhutto. Later, even BB broke the NRO, when she was advised by him not to return but she did.
Pakistan’s political system is quite unpredictable and strange things can happen anytime, but as the situation stands today, there is no possibility of any changes in the system or even something closer another emergency plus. November 3, 2007 is a past and so is the then president.
Those who supported him or still have a soft corner described his local government reforms, Police Order 2002 and allowing private TV channels as positive steps, but he created rift in and divided the mainstream parties, PML-N and PPP, to execute all this. He also had the then young Imran Khan for his support and also bargained with the MQM. He also used religious parties [MMA] to get legitimacy from the Parliament.
Like the previous dictators, he brought Provisional Constitutional Order [PCO] first in 1999 and again in 2007. For the first time, the lawyers’ movement made Musharraf so weak that even the post-Nov 3rd Supreme Court, which at that time used to be called Dogar Court, could not save him.
Yes, private TV channels did come under his government but it took some Independent channels years to get the up-linking facilities. Although such attempts were made during Benazir Bhutto's government, it was in 2002 that licences were issued. The technology also has lot to do with it as some of the channels had started functioning prior to this decision.
But what he did on Nov 3, 2007 was typical of a dictator. All channels were off air and even the then Pemra chairman was not aware of the action despite being the regulator.
Over 250 journalists were arrested, sedition case was registered against the PFUJ and the media owners were even asked to give an undertaking that they would not criticised the president. The movement continued for 88 days and ended when channels were restored.
Musharraf often terms his decision to ban media as a wrong advice, as the purpose was not achieved. He thought that by suppressing media he could also suppress the lawyer's movement.
Now, Musharraf is a history and so is his rule. He failed in launching his party at the mainstream level and has also been trying for the last two years to become the leader of Mohajirs as a possible replacement to the MQM founder.
It is also true that Musharraf did provide major relief to MQM, but his role in the May 12 incident would go among his darkest action. Surprisingly, his name never figured in any case of the May 12 killings. He has also been accused in the Benazir Bhutto and Akbar Bugti murder cases.
When Musharraf was planning for another long rule and reached an agreement with Benazir Bhutto, her refusal to go along with him gave the former dictator a real setback because he not only lost the deal but also his ally PML-Q.
It was an unprecedented victory of lawyers and journalists movement along with political parties and civil society that Musharraf lost the power and it also sent strong signals to others as well.
The establishment after Musharraf decided that under no circumstance, they would takeover or directly rule the country. With the presence of an independent judiciary and a powerful media, the way forward is the constant pressure on Parliament and Executive to perform and delver. But if they fail, the alternate is more democracy and more elections, not extra-constitutional action.
Despite all kinds of speculations and political uncertainty in the country, there is no November 3-like action on the card. And although the ruling PML-N leadership is in a trouble, change will come through a democratic process. What happened 10 years back might not happen again in the presence of a strong judiciary and independent media.
What we are hearing from the propaganda factory – like a technocrat setup for two to three years or the possible takeover in case of confrontation with judiciary – are stories based on assumptions and wishful thinking.
Musharraf was ill advised by his political and non-political friends in 2007 on the question of sacking former chief justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, the Lal Masjid operation and on invoking emergency plus.
His political friends were former PM Shaukat Aziz, Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed, Chaudhrys of Gujrat, Sheikh Rashid and key players in the then ISI and MI.
Mushahid once told me that when the Supreme Court declared sacking of Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry as illegal and reinstated him as chief justice, there was a meeting held at the Army House and he advised the former president to go for a 'patch up' with him.
“I told him to pick up the green phone, congratulate him on his restoration and pay a secret visit to his house along with his spouse. After giving some serious thought, he did not follow my advice,” Mushahid said.
Musharraf has to redefine his role. He is unfit for politics and the best possible role for him should be the responsibility of someone who has been the key witness to what happened in post-9/11 Pakistan. Many held him responsible for what Pakistan is going through at present along with what Gen Ziauddin. So, he should opt for the role of statesman.'
For his opponents Musharraf is now a past and they should not worry about the future which is in democracy, but they have to prove themselves as a true democrat which at present they are not.
The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang.
Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO
