Exit poll correctly reflected final result of NA-4 Peshawar by-election

PESHAWAR: The exit poll conducted by the staff of the Centre for Peace and Development Initiatives (CPDI) during the recent by-election for the National Assembly constituency, NA-4, was right on target as it gave a true picture of the votes that the candidates were likely to get.

The CPDI, an Islamabad-based organization, was able to provide the brief result of the exit polls barely 15 minutes after the closing time (5 pm) of the polling. It later gave details of the exit polls with lot of interesting information.

The exit poll was based on interviews with 1,742 voters, including 1,251 males and 491 females. According to the findings of the exit poll based on the response of the voters to questions posed by the CPDI staffers, the Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) led the race with 43 percent of the voters saying they had voted for its candidate Arbab Amir Ayub. This meant he had built an unassailable lead from start to finish. His dominant position in the contest was clear not long after the polling closed and the counting of votes started.

The exit poll gave the Awami National Party (ANP), led by Asfandyar Wali Khan, 21 percent of the vote. This was the runner-up position. The votes finally obtained by ANP candidate Khushdil Khan after counting were more or less the same projected by the exit poll.

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) won the third place in the exit poll with 16 percent of the vote. It again was a true reflection of the voters' choices as it turned out later when the counting was completed and PML-N's Nasir Khan Musazai was overtaken by the ANP candidate and pushed into the third spot.

The exit poll showed that the PPP candidate Asad Gulzar Khan would get nine percent share of the polled votes. And this is what happened in the end. According to the exit polls, the Jamaat-e-Islami candidate Wasil Farooq had received eight percent of the polled votes. This too turned out to be true as the Jamaat-e-Islami trailed far behind in the contest.

However, the exit poll gave three percent votes to all the other candidates, including the one fielded by the Mumtaz Qadri-inspired Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan. The candidate of this newly launched Islamic party, Dr Muhammad Shafiq Ameeni, polled a surprisingly high number of votes and came fifth in the contest. He was ahead of the Jamaat-e-Islami's Wasil Farooq, who was pushed into the sixth position. This was the only wrong assessment reflected by the exit poll as the strong performance of the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan wasn't mentioned by those interviewed by the CPDI team.

The CPDI's Mustafa Nazir Ahmad, who is a former journalist, had reached the constituency early morning on October 26 with his team and was ready to start work. The team monitored the polling process in the by-election, visited a number of polling stations and remained in touch with voters, officials and all others involved in the electoral process. It compiled a comprehensive report highlighting the shortcomings observed on the polling day. The exit poll was completed fairly quickly and made available in time.