Seats in the Senate

Since seats to the Senate are apportioned on the basis of representation in the provincial and national assemblies, there is very little drama surrounding the outcome of next month’s elections. There are only two possible sources of conflict: the battle among party members to be awarded a Senate ticket and possible horsetrading between political parties to secure as many seats as possible. Much of the focus has been on the PML-N, which will probably gain the most seats in the elections and be able to appoint the chairman and deputy chairman of the Senate, finally wresting control of the upper house of parliament from the PPP. Obviously a favourite, close loyalist of the prime minister will be appointed chairman and will be in a position to enforce the prime minister’s authority. A possible positive outcome of the Senate elections could be that foreign affairs advisor Sartaj Aziz is given a ticket which will then allow him to be appointed permanent foreign minister and no longer leave the Foreign Office without a head. Other political heavyweights likely to be given tickets include Ishaq Dar, Tariq Fatemi, Raja Zafarul Haq, Ghulam Dastagir Khan and Pervaiz Rasheed.
Horsetrading is most likely to take place in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa where no one party has an outright majority in the assembly. There is an added wrinkle in the fact that balloting for Senate elections is meant to be secret. Even though few vote against their party, this time there is believed to be dissatisfaction within the ranks of the PTI. The party’s representatives in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have never quite seen eye-to-eye with the national leadership. They would have preferred to govern rather than be dragged into the politics of protest that Imran Khan has embraced. If they do not get their way on the candidates that are given Senate tickets there is a slight possibility they may cast their ballots for someone else. In Balochistan too the assembly is divided between many parties which creates a situation ripe for horsetrading. Sindh, with its division between the PPP and MQM, is more clear-cut while the PML-N is likely to take every seat from Punjab since the PTI may only be contesting from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. If things go as are expected by most, the PML-N can easily consolidate its hold on power and may no longer need any support at all from the PPP to pass any legislation it desires. It is hoped the PML-N governs more responsibly once it has all that power. The opposition parties too will need to play the role of effective and constructive opposition, which comes from vigilance and a sense of responsibility.