Fire and fury

The US overreaction to North Korea’s recent missile tests seems to have pushed the situation into a full-blown crisis. After the US ignored the opportunity of the Asean meet to use diplomatic channels to reduce tensions and chose to impose sanctions on North Korea instead, the latter has responded by directly threatening the US base in Guam. This is self-inflicted chaos after the immature diplomatic approach of the Trump regime chose to ignore existing US policy towards North Korea. Relations with North Korea have remained strained since former US president George Bush included it in the ‘axis of evil’ after September 11, but no situation like this has been created before. The sense is that North Korea is recognising that the current US regime is weaker than the ones before it and is trying to call its bluff. The response of President Donald Trump – to respond with ‘fire and fury’ – has itself been compared to the worst North Korean propaganda. In a rational world, there is no space for another conflict zone to open up in Southeast Asia, especially led by the US against a nuclear-armed dictatorship.

The Guam base has been used by the US to demonstrate symbolic power. Over the last few weeks, US jets dispatched from the base have flown over the Korean peninsula to demonstrate the US threat, but that has clearly backfired. Most analysts still believe that the bluster from Kim Jong-un and Trump is unlikely to lead to full blown war, but all war needs is one missile strike. The current North Korean response is a direct answer to the new UN sanctions imposed last week, which China had warned against. The strategy of long-term sanctions has barely been able to make a dent on North Korea’s decision to position itself as a nuisance. The cost has instead been increased global insecurity. The trouble is that the US and North Korea both have leaderships that believe in symbolism rather than genuine diplomacy. The reality is that the only way to deal with North Korea is to open the isolated country up to the world. Its own leadership has long revelled in its status as an international pariah. The new South Korean government had indicated openness to a more relaxed approach towards it. This would have been the sensible thing to do. But before this happens, there is a need to immediately deescalate. The US will have to take the first step back. It is not certain that Trump will be willing to do so.