Trouble in the kingdom

Succession in the Saudi royal family has always been a complicated affair, usually moving horizontally rather than vertically. That is why even though 31-year-old Mohammed bin Salman had been tipped to eventually take the reins, his swift rise has come as a surprise. This week his father King Salman made him crown prince, supplanting his older and more experienced cousin Mohammed bin Nayef. There is a tendency to assume that youth always equals liberalism and reform but Mohammed bin Salman is a more complicated figure. He does not seem to be in favour of gradual democratisation and his economic efforts have been disastrous. He was the person in charge of the Vision 2030 plan, which promised a Saudi economy no longer reliant on oil by 2030. There is no doubt why this economic agenda would appeal to the US, which would get a preferential entry into any newly privatised sectors in the Saudi economy. Equally calamitous was Bin Salman’s time as defence minister, when Saudi Arabia launched a war against the Houthis in Yemen.

Just a few days after the new crown prince’s promotion, a suicide bomber planning to attack the Grand Mosque in Makkah detonated his explosives after a gun battle with security forces. Three different militant groups are believed to be behind the planned attack, although they have not been named yet. Likely the IS, which has previously attacked the Masjid-e-Nabvi in Medina and a mosque in the city of Abha, is one of the groups. That this attack coincided not just with the promotion of Bin Salman but with further tensions in the Gulf standoff with Qatar only makes it more ominous. The Saudi-led alliance of Gulf States issued a list of 13 demands that it wants Qatar to accept in return for lifting its two-week old blockage. Among the demands is the closure of Al-Jazeera, the closure of a Turkish base and reduced ties with Iran.        Along with the likes of IS and Al-Qaeda, Qatar will also have to declare groups such as Hezbollah and Muslim Brotherhood terrorist organisations. The timing of these demands shows that the new crown prince of Saudi Arabia is not going to be any more inclined to mend fences with Qatar than his father. But the most telling demand may be the insistence that Qatar have no contact with opposition groups in any of the Gulf States. This shows that the real fear of Saudi Arabia may be domestic, where it is worried about unrest. The promotion of Mohammed bin Salman, then, could also be a move to forestall any speculation about the future of the Saudi royal family. Saudi Arabia is looking to reassert itself in the modern world. The reassertion may not be to everyone’s liking.