Capital is abuzz with rumours

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ISLAMABAD: Just hours into the impatiently awaited Panama case climax, political flux prevails all over.

Rumour mills, conspiracy theories, angled versions of vested political interests are working and churning out half cooked information and bringing a lot of confusion at play. Fortunately, in the case at hand, up till the apex court’s clock strikes 2:00pm, Thursday (today) and the things get crystal clear. For now, treasury as well as opposition parties represented in Parliament have given final touches to the respective contingency plans, reviewing political options to fall back on by Thursday evening.

Parliamentarians being most sensitive species to public opinion are naturally affected by every twist and turn of national life. Hence the Panama case related saga at hand, and a lot of strings attached. Treasury back benches, ministers’ chambers and lobbied were especially abuzz all day Wednesday at Parliament House and everyone is hastening to come out with his best guess on the outcome of the historic case. All legal implications, scenarios discussed threadbare, as a result. Still no one knows who will have the last laugh or, no winner - no losers as a result. All through Wednesday, premier and close aides were indulged in political consultations. One dimension is as to who will run the government if premier has to go on a leave pending any further inquiry, if the apex court directs so. A senior minister can officiate in place of the premier in such an eventuality as a deputy prime minister, may be. So no full fledge replacement contemplated as it was declared un-conducive for ruling MPs morale, as well as next elections prospect. 

Rest of the political things can easily be handled from Raiwind as no one can bar head of a political party from activities, close Sharif aides are said to be toeing this firm opinion. So with this whole effort in mind MPs were asked to be present in the capital.

And it reflected a bit positively on Wednesday as PML-N and allies finally broke the psychological barrier for quorum completion. Pointed out by a PPP legislator on the heels of party’s usual walkout on this day too, ministers on front rows and backbenchers felt too relieved as soon as the count was made and the house was in order. But all this after yet another fiery speech by the Opposition Leader Khursheed Shah who touched the height of political rhetoric, firing warning shots of an imminent full fledge agitation by PPP if the treasury didn’t come up with a final explanation on the missing aides of Zardari Sahib.

Summing up his most pressing demand in a nutshell, Mr Shah wondered why the treasury was not interested in maintaining quorum, and answering in clear cut terms on the missing persons, known as personal aides, confidants for the former president. PPP seems to have run out of patience on the issue. And has already launched a two pronged strategy by giving 24 hours deadline to the government over its missing persons, and a street agitation across the country on severe power outages being the pick of the whole scheme. 

The only hurdle being the big question: how to amass workers and supporters for a decent show? All this at a time when PML-N needs a safe passage from Panama case quagmire, and faces a harsh summer ahead infested with power outages. The ruling Sharif and their inner circle know a lucky April is all they need coupled with timely completion of power projects by this year end to woo the public and voters at large. 

Mindful of this fact, Minister Khawaja Asif came up with the new figure of electricity generation and shortfall. Khursheed Shah was however dismissive about minister’s assurance that the electricity shortfall related mini-crisis would start easing out Thursday onwards. Asif was however firm and sure about addition of anther 6,500MW till this December, knowing fully well an end to power outages was their sure bet for elections 2018, provided all else goes according to the plan. CPEC is becoming game changer not only for the country, but also the political future on the ruling Sharifs provided there is no political blood sport in April. The PPP-PTI opposition in Parliament estimates they stand a happy-go-lucky chance to shake PML-N’s grip on power only if the historic Panama case verdict ousts the ruling Sharif on Thursday.

Opposition bigwigs are sure only this case unites them, though divided they stand for all practical purpose. Everyone on the opposition benches would hate to admit, but more potent political brains believe this historic case alone can deliver them the required impetus to conquer the political chess board in elections 2018. Otherwise, PML-N might repeat the 2013 elections performance – even better. The treasury benches are also keeping their fingers crossed, but with cautious optimism. Confidants and loyalists of the ruling family tend to believe the provided bad luck doesn’t knock their doors, Premier Sharif has the tendency to bounce back -- his track record of the last 30 years suggests so. In the middle of his second premiership in 1999, Nawaz Sharif faced the hardest moment of his personal and political life. Never before he was put behind the bars, and went straight to the prison cell from the Prime Minister House. His laughable sentencing for life in imprisonment for hijacking a plane of his own country as prime minister, exile agreement with the then military ruler, and subsequent sojourn to Saudi Arabia seemed irreparable losses. Then his party’s transformation into PML-Q, making it to freer London environment, Charter of Democracy with late Bhutto, homecoming by end of 2007, and then becoming third time premier against all odds is behind him. Panama case can be termed the final test of his personal political career and luck– PML-N sails and drowns with him. The overall effect will be domino in nature. Arguments in his favour are also handy. Internally, there is no major voter or supporter swing in PTI or PPP’s favour, especially in the Punjab and KP. Party is intact, allies are on his side. For the first time, Sharif is about to make it to the final year of his premiership. His working relationship with the current military leadership is good, till the last reports. And major allies like China, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have the best of personal and official rapport with him. Only the luck factor remains uncounted, unsure.