Musharraf irrelevant except in Sindh

Former president Pervez Musharraf, in a bid to play more proactive role in politics in the changing political scenario, has geared up his activities, but apparently looked quite irrelevant in national politics except in Sindh, where a 'political vacuum,' exists in the wake of division in MQM. 

At the national level, the former president looked quite irrelevant as politics being divided in Nawaz and Imran camps. Musharraf is not acceptable to either camp. While it was out of question of any patch-up between Nawaz and Musharraf, the opposition led by Imran also wanted to keep distance from former army chief, though in his early days in politics the PTI chairman supported him and he too backed him. 

So, what space was available for the former president in urban Sindh at the moment. Chances of merger of any factions looked possible but not before elections. Musharraf has been trying but has failed, though MQM Pakistan had asked him to play his role, London and PSP still reluctant.

In the absence of MQM founder Altaf Hussain, who despite having his following finds it difficult to play any role, Musharraf can try to fill the vacuum.

Return of one of the founding members of MQM, Saleem Shahzad, key witness to party's 35 years of politics, he wanted Musharraf to play his role and if possible lead the united MQM. Knowing that he would be arrested, the ailing MQM leader, who is suffering from cancer, may face a joint investigation team. 

Former governor Ishratul Ibad, who too has been very close to Musharraf, is also expected to return to play his role in politics. Sources said efforts are being made to unite all factions of MQM minus Altaf, as even Musharraf has now taken a tough stance and doesn't see future role of the MQM founder. 

But Musharraf also wants to play a role in national politics and his recent meetings and contacts with divided factions of PML including Ch. Shujaat and Pir Pagaro were part of the same strategy.

His role beyond Sindh and that too urban Sindh is limited, despite his understanding with the military establishment, who played its role in giving him safe exit in 2008 and also when he was facing some serious cases and was arrested. 

Musharraf had ruled Pakistan as its most powerful ruler, both president and army chief, for almost nine years but the ground realities are far different today from those a few years back. With national politics clearly divided in two camps and the battle of Punjab would be directly between PML-N and the PTI, the third alliance could be between PPP and PML-Q and some other parties. 

However, KP will see interesting battle between PTI, JI versus the rest including PML-N, PPP, ANP and JUI. Even here Musharraf has no role as none of these parties would side with the former dictator. 

He is perhaps left with no option but to look towards his role in urban Sindh, and has been talking of the grievances of 'Muhajirs,' but at the same time, he said, that don't want to confine himself in ethnic politics.

There is no doubt that there is a soft corner for Musharraf in urban Sindh, particularly among the Urdu speaking and so far none of the three factions, MQM London, MQM Pakistan and Pak Sarzameen Party have said anything against his past politics. On the contrary, they have praised his role.

Musharraf wants to see unity among MQM factions but, like many others, doesn't see role of MQM founder Altaf Hussain in future politics. One of the MQM founders Saleem Shahazad, who has returned to Pakistan after years of self-exile, had met Musharraf, prior to his return and asked him to play role in bringing all factions on one platform.

Musharraf also held some meetings with MQM Pakistan leaders to get a closer view of the ground situation in Karachi. He has been in constant touch with Ishratul Ibad who has also the intention to return to politics. 

There are also speculations about the possible merger of factions of PML minus Nawaz Sharif or PML-N. Most of these factions are small and with PPP, caused major dent in PML-F. Pir Pagaro also wants Musharraf to play his role.

The leader of his own faction of PML, Ch. Shujaat Hussain and his party are facing an uphill task in the present politics of Punjab, which is clearly divided between Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan. Thus, the only space available for PML-Q is through a grand alliance of PML factions with understanding with parties like the PPP. 

Musharraf has now conceded that his decision to give preference to PPP over PML-Q was a mistake and has now mended his differences with Ch. Shujaat, while the PML-Q is also facing political isolation. Imran and his PTI intend to fly 'solo.' 

There has also been drastic change and change of thinking in his previous 'constituency,' as well. He tried his luck in 2013, but in the presence of former chief justice of Pakistan, retired justice Iftikhar Chaudhry could not get his name cleared and disqualified to contest elections by respective courts, one court had even debarred him for life. He has to fight three battles or challenges to make a comeback and play any role in mainstream politics. 

(1) Cases against him including murder cases and above all mother case of all cases i.e. high treason under Article VI of the Constitution 1973, besides Akbar Bugti murder case and Lal Masjid issue. 

(2) Personal security, as he has himself been demanding top security which, he said, prevented him from appearing in courts. Intelligence reports also suggest that his life is under constant threat from global and local terror networks. Under these circumstances, he has no chance of playing any active role in politics. 

(3) Politically, he has lost his relevance, as no mainstream political party at present is ready to accept his role. The only option he is left with is in Karachi where he has to pick between MQM, Pakistan or Pak Sarzameen Party

Prior to 2013 elections, then establishment and army chief Ashfaq Parvez Kayani sent him a strong message against coming to Pakistan, for two reasons. First, because his life was under serious threat and Taliban had killed many political opponents, and second, intelligence reports had suggested possible election victory of Nawaz Sharif, who had threatened to put him on trial. 

Musharraf ignored all advices as he thought that millions of his followed on social media would turn up at least in thousands to receive him, but was disappointed. When the government decided to put him on trial under Article VI for abrogating the constitution, it put the establishment in a difficult position. 

Later, through an allegedly understanding or exit strategy, he was allowed to go abroad on 'medical grounds’. Thus, if he decided to return without a clearance or clear strategy, prior to the elections, it would be his political suicide.

If at all he has a political role, it is in the MQM, but that too perhaps by staying in self-exile. But will he be able to unite MQM faction and lead the party without Altaf is a million dollar question. But if anyone who could convince MQM founder to 'quit' politics, it is perhaps Pervez Musharraf. Whether Altaf agreed or not is a different question.