2016 -- A difficult year for PM Sharif

If we keep politics aside, the year 2016 belongs to the former army chief, Gen Raheel Sharif, who made history by announcing his retirement early this year (2016). Despite a campaign for his extension, he retired on time on November 29 and would be remembered as one of the most popular army chiefs for leading the Operation Zarb-e-Azb against terrorists and also keeping the army away from politics. All this led to a smooth change of command from Gen Raheel to Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa who was among the four senior most generals recommended by Gen Raheel as his possible successor.

This smooth transition helped end speculations and media hype over the new chief, which continued till the final announcement. There have been some ups and downs during Gen Raheel’s tenure after he was appointed army chief by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in 2013. Gen Raheel played an important role during the 2014 Dharna when the situation was tense after speculations that the move was part of a 'hidden script'. Gen Raheel's only advice to the PM was to avoid any violence as he didn't want something like 'Model Town' at D-Chowk.

The year 2016 was certainly difficult for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif as it all started against the backdrop of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's surprise visit to Lahore, to attend the reception of PM Sharif's granddaughter weeks before the new year started. It was followed by the visit of Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj.

Sources said there were some disagreements between the civil and military leadership on national security and foreign policy issues. One such issue which became problematic was the trial of former army chief, Gen Pervez Musharraf, particularly when it came to the 'high treason' charge under Article VI. The crisis finally ended when his name was removed from the Exit Control List and he was allowed to go abroad.

Earlier, when a campaign was launched for the extension of Gen Raheel in the media, the former army chief even surprised the PM when he announced that he would not seek any extension and would retire on time. The news came when the PM was abroad and, according to sources, when the PM asked him about the reason, he said he wanted to fully concentrate on the Operation Zarb-e-Azb and such speculations and confusion did hurt the moral of the armed forces.

But the issue, which really put the PM under pressure and all other difficulties, surfaced in April when the Panama Leaks hit the headlines the world over in which the name of the PM's daughter and two sons appeared along with over 500 others. The 'Panama sword’ is still hanging over his head as the Supreme Court of Pakistan would take up the matter in the first week of January. He will be unstoppable in the next elections if he gets through this crisis, particularly with a disjointed opposition.

The Panama Leaks also gave a new life to the main opposition leader, Imran Khan, who after getting a setback following the 2015 Judicial Commission report on election rigging, was struggling to make a comeback as his party not only suffered defeats in by-elections but also in local bodies and Cantonment Board elections held on the party basis. However, Imran could not exploit the situation well and his decision for ‘Islamabad lockdown' and that too without taking other opposition parties into confidence bounced back and exposed the PTI capacity when it came to agitation. Even his ally Pakistan Awami Tehreek led by Allama Tahirul Qadri distanced itself from any long march. Learning a lesson from the 'solo flight', Imran has now hinted at a 'grand alliance' over Panama Leaks, and not an electoral one.

Thus, he kept the issue alive from April 2016 and intends to make it an election issue, whether he wins or loses his case in the supreme court. The opposition parties are likely to attack the justice system, in case Sharif wins the legal battle as they know that they don't have much to attract voters. After the Panama Leaks, Sharif did come under pressure and made three speeches    two to the nation and one to the parliament. Perhaps, his team could not manage the issue well and if it had had a dialogue with the opposition in the parliament, things would have been different.

Therefore, despite some breathing space as a result of the decision of a five-member SC bench which did not constitute a judicial commission after Imran's lawyer opposed it, the issue is still alive and a 'make or break' for both Sharif and Imran. Otherwise, there would be lots of political happenings in 2017 which would be a year of 'election campaign', if not the year of general elections. It was also quite disturbing for Sharif who underwent a major surgery in mid-2016. He wants to get himself, his daughter and sons cleared as he knows if he fails, it will have serious fallout for not only the next elections but also the political future of his immediate family.

In the last three and a half years, Sharif survived major crises and his party (PML-N) consolidated its electoral position, particularly in Punjab. He still has the support of some other parties like JUI-F, National Party and even Awami National Party, whereas he continues to have a 'love and hate' relationship with the PPP even after the return of former president Asif Ali Zardari. The PPP decision on December 27 of not giving any 'long march' call has also given a sigh of relief to the government.

Sharif survived many political challenges as well as tension with the establishment in the last one year. Due to positive results of the Operation Zarb-e-Azb and operations in Karachi and Balochistan, there has been a marked improvement in law and order, but terrorist attacks like the one in Quetta in which over 70 people were killed, mostly lawyers, continued. The government did not face much pressure before the Quetta Inquiry Commission report allowed the opposition to exploit the situation.

However, on the political front, Sharif did not confront the kind of turmoil he faced in 2014, i.e. the 126-day Dharna, when he was practically rescued by the parliament and Gen Sharif.

Imran Khan dominated politics in 2016 and left other opposition parties, particularly PPP, far behind. However, due to a disjointed opposition, he failed in his attempt to dislodge Sharif. The year set the tone for the next elections between Sharif and anti-Sharif camps, whether they are held in 2017 or as per schedule in 2018. The PML-N has consolidated its position after the local bodies elections and the results of elections for chairmen, deputy chairmen, mayors and deputy mayors clearly pointed to Sharif's political grip in Punjab.

The year 2016 was the worst for the fourth largest party – MQM           as it divided it into three factions after the Pak Sarzameen Party was launched in March 2016 by former MQM City Nazim Mustafa Kamal following Altaf Hussain’s August 22 anti-Pakistan slogan. The party was further split into MQM-Pakistan and MQM-London.

However, the MQM, which once used its muscles as well as electoral strength to pressure successive governments, is now looking for options and opportunities. This has also eased pressure on Sharif as other opposition parties also failed in taking any position on the MQM.

There are lessons to be learnt for PM Sharif as well as for Imran Khan and Asif Ali Zardari, the three who will dominate politics in 2017, whether it will be an election year or a year for election campaign.

(The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of the Geo News, The News and daily Jang. Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO)