Crucial exercise

The population census that the government has planned from March 15 to May 17 next year will be a crucial exercise. There has been no counting of the population since 1998 when the last census was held almost 19 years ago. This makes the task of planning or devising policies extremely arduous with no reliable knowledge available of the demographic mix of population or the manner in which patterns have changed. The government strategy to conduct the census involves the process taking place in two phases in all four provinces with the country broken into 840,0003 blocks for the first phase and 82,837 blocks for the second phase. To carry out the survey in each of these blocks is one problem. Over 40,000 enumerators are required for each phase of the exercise and a problem in finding them arises from the fact that large numbers of personnel from the armed forces are engaged in important assignments on other fronts, including the war against terrorism and countering the cross-border firing from India. This means personnel will need to be identified and carefully trained; the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics is already engaged in this exercise. The census takes place after the Council of Common Interests had approved its conduct in 2017, long after the constitutionally mandated period of a population count every 10 years. The previous census had also taken place under a PML-N government.

The absence of army personnel means that a security plan will need to be worked out even more carefully than ever before. There are many contentious areas concerning the census and the possibility of tensions running high. Diverse opinions have already broken out in Balochistan over how the count is to be conducted, with concerns coming in that the large number of Afghans based in the province will identify themselves as Pakhtuns, altering the delicate ethnic balance of the province. In Karachi too, the count will be essential given that it determines constituencies and seats. All these problems will need to be overcome as the process moves on. The results from both phases will be very closely watched given the impact they could have on the make-up of the National Assembly and other political factors. A census is of course critical to any country. It is, therefore, good to see the initial work taking place – identification of the regions to be covered in each phase and appointments of staff underway. We hope the exercise proceeds calmly and without hitches.