Homecoming for Zardari

Asif Ali Zardari’s return home in time for the December 27 death anniversary of his late wife Benazir Bhutto ends the somewhat mysterious exile that began in June 2015 when the co-chairperson of the PPP disappeared overseas soon after making a hard-hitting speech attacking the military establishment. On his return to Karachi, Zardari’s tone was just the opposite; he delivered a speech that was high on praise for the military and low on details of what the PPP’s strategy in the coming days would be. He focused more on Kashmir and India, although he promised something big on     December 27. Reminding those who greeted him that the Bhuttos had given their lives for Pakistan, Zardari appeared to be sending out a message to his detractors but continued to insist that the PPP respects parliament and feels that ‘democracy is the best revenge’. His speech contrasted with the fiery, high-pitched threats against the government being made by his son, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari. He spoke little of the Panama leaks and of any attempt to bring the government down and stressed the need to solve problems in parliament and to strengthen institutions.

While his diversion, or otherwise, from the line being taken by Bilawal is being widely commented on, analysts believe there is no split within the PPP, with Zardari eager to leave leadership as it is now and perhaps play a more statesman-like role. This, we believe, is an unrealistic assumption. He has always been more than just involved in decision-making, whether from Dubai or from London, and will remain just as involved now that he is in Karachi. Of late, he appears to have backed his son in party matters and observers of the party believe this will continue. But this leads to the question:    has not the son reciprocated by doing the same for his father? And who is calling the real shots here? Whether Zardari and Bilawal will be able to revive the floundering fortunes of the PPP is a different matter. There is speculation that Zardari could attempt to bring new, direct investment into Karachi as one of the means to strengthen his party’s hold on Sindh. But any actual measures will become visible only in the future.

Zardari arrives back at a time when Pakistan’s politics stands somewhat shaken after a long period of uncertainty as a result of a perceived clash between civilian and military institutions, pushed forward and wished for by certain political players and others who backed them. Prime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif has welcomed Zardari’s return and hoped that, as has happened in the past, he will help strengthen relations between the PML-N and the PPP. There has been accord and discord in the past between Sharif and Zardari. We will need to see how understandings – if there are to be any – emerge this time around. Zardari appears at a time when the MQM is faced with immense challenges in its urban base in Sindh with the party already split into factions and with the ongoing Rangers actions. It is already clear the PPP is eager to take advantage of this. Yet, on the day Zardari landed, the Rangers raided the Karachi offices of one of his close associates, Anwar Majeed, and recovered illegal weapons. The incident may indicate that not much has changed since Zardari left the country after being so agitated by the arrest of Dr Asim Hussain. How Zardari intends to address the Karachi, and the overall Sindh, situation is not yet certain. A flow of stories and rumours has preceded his landing. Time will be the judge of how many of these predictions turned out to be correct and how many fell by the wayside.