Politics shifts to Sindh as Zardari to end his self-exile on 23rd

With the possible return of former president Asif Ali Zardari on December 23, ending his self-exile in what appears to be changing political environment in post-November 30 scenario, the political activities are likely to shift to Sindh from the Punjab, as PPP worked out duo-strategy to increase pressure on Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. 

PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto, while announcing the return of the party’s co-chairman, dispelled the impression that his return has to do with any changes made last month or an understanding with the government. “He has been declared fit to travel by doctors and his presence means a lot at a time when the PPP is going to launch movement for its four demands,” he said. 

With Zardari’s return, not only politics would shift to Sindh but within Sindh also he would also like to fire the shot in Sindh government, with many changes on the card. Sacking Sindh IG AD Khawaja appears to be the first action, and more will follow. 

Zardari, who went into self-exile in 2015, after his hard hitting speech against the establishment and without naming the former army chief, retired general Raheel Sharif, his outburst came following the arrest and action against some of his close friends and government officials. 

Action against Dr Asim Hussain, Manzoor Kaka, Nisar Morai and a few others did not go well while the PPP leaderships were also annoyed at some of the press releases of the Rangers and one of the speeches of then corps commander and now DG, ISI, Lt-Gen Naveed Mukhtar, which for all practical purposes, was the ‘charge-sheet’ against the Sindh government. 

Zardari was in Dubai when he heard about the arrest of Asim Hussain, by Rangers who later also conducted his JIT, which declared him ‘Jet Black,’ for his alleged links in terror financing. He will be the first person which Zardari would like to meet on his return on December 23. 

PPP’s outburst against Interior Minister Ch. Nisar Ali has a lot to do with action against Dr Asim and later model Ayan Ali’s arrest in an alleged currency case. Situation further got tense when Nisar went ahead and at one of his press conference, even disclosed about Asim’s video confession which after a few months also aired.

However, it is also a fact that Ch. Nisar was the first man who also stated on record that the way Dr Asim was arrested by the Rangers was not proper and raised a lot of questions. Sources said even PM Sharif was against some of NAB actions, as he feared it would damage his relations with Zardari. Ch. Nisar has other views and differed and did not stop the FIA from its actions, though has no control of NAB. 

So, the PPP likes to press its demand of Ch Nisar’s removal, particularly after Quetta Inquiry Commission report raised a few questions about performance of the interior ministry and also about the interior minister, something which forced him to clarify his position. 

With his return and possible address to the public meeting at Garhi Khuda Bux, on the eve of the 9th death anniversary of Benazir Bhutto, the former president would also launch PPP’s much awaited and belated campaign. 

While PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari would lead the movement, most likely from the first or second week of January, 2017, Zardari would be meeting leaders like Maulana Fazlur Rehman, Ch Shujaat Hussain, Asfandyar Wali, Dr Farooq Sattar and noted Sindhi politicians, in the backdrop of the next general elections. 

It would be interesting to watch whether he will meet the chairman of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, PTI Imran Khan or not, but the possibility of his meeting with his government’s foreign minister, and now PTI central leader Shah Mahmood Qureshi cannot be ruled out. 

However, chances of PPP-PTI alliance are not on card as the PPP intends to challenge both the PML and PTI, which from the election point of view suits PPP. Rising PTI and PML tussle could divide Punjab seats which is also in Zardari’s mind. 

He wanted maximum seats from Sindh and some from southern Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, in order to form a formidable alliance. He has also caused major dent in PML (Functional) and likely to win over the Jatois as well. 

In case population census followed by delimitation completed, the number of seats would double, which could make national political scenario more interesting and challenging. Zardari also aimed at winning a few seats from Karachi and Hyderabad, in order to make PPP position more secure for any grand bargain. 

How the PML-N and particularly Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, assessing his return and politics, would also be challenging for them, particularly in view of Imran Khan’s pressure, Panama case and some related issues. 

If the PPP, in post-December 27 scenario, announced its long march, and made up its mind to exert pressure along with other parties, there is a possibility that Maulana Fazlur Rahman would play the role of neutral umpire and try a patch-up between Zardari and Sharif. 

The JUI-F is in no mood to join the protest which could be judged from his remarks against Bilawal. Instead, he wanted JUI, ANP, PPP and PML-N alliance against PTI-JI in the KP. Sources said even ANP also intends to keep itself out of any street agitation but may join alliance. 

Interesting will be Zardari inclination for MQM Pakistan, as he would like to keep distance from MQM London.  Therefore, even Zardari after staying in Pakistan for a week or two, would return to Dubai or London, he would like to shift the national political scene from Islamabad or Lahore back to Bilawal House, Karachi. 

Zardari has some medical problems, particularly related to back problem but, in the last one year, he had been traveling from Dubai to London and the US but, for the first time declared fit to travel to Pakistan. One wonders which doctor has given him this clearance and why. Sindh mey purani tabdeeli ha gahi.  The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang.