Happy wins, but misplaced confidence can be damaging

DUBAI: The just concluded local bodies (LB) polls have confirmed one deeply entrenched fact —- status quo —- with all parties in power in the provinces retaining their hold.
The results, though they may be interpreted in any way by the winners or losers, also confirm that there is no appetite in the political, military or security establishment to change this status quo.
Not for the moment anyway despite signs of multiple cold wars going on at various levels.
So the PML-N that holds a big share of power in Punjab retained it. The PPP, though battered and discredited otherwise, kept its hold on rural Sindh. The PTI with its government in the KPK managed to win a majority. Balochistan with a dubiously scattered political power setup, kept that image in the LB polls.
Karachi may be a different ball game if the security establishment there does not adopt a forgive-and-forget policy vis-à-vis the MQM. So while the MQM did not do much in the polls held in some urban areas, in Hyderabad and Karachi it can show its strength, again depending on its relations with the powers that now handle the MQM portfolio.
The Sindh government or the federal government obviously do not.If the result pattern in subsequent phases of LB polls in Punjab and Sindh remains the same, the PML-N should not be too happy. Why? The independents won almost as many seats as the party in the Oct 31 poll.
Though most of these will eventually land in the ruling party is obvious but they challenged the party hierarchy, and won.
Will these poll results make any dent in the power structures of the big parties is not certain. Powers of the nazims and district and union councils have been curtailed to make them totally subservient to the provincial governments. That leaves little room that a new and more vibrant leadership will emerge, as did from the 1985 non-party polls of the Ziaul Haq era or LB polls under Gen Musharraf.
But what is certain is that these structures at the top will go through a massive restructuring process, throwing out rebels or men or women with such tendencies, consolidate family and cronies hold on not just party positions but all tiers of government.
What is feared is that these LB poll results may give some of these main parties a misplaced, and highly damaging, confidence that they could overcome their faults and shortcomings, like the multiple dimensions of corruption cases, to challenge the establishment’s creeping coup.
Why it may be damaging is because the sub-surface cold wars and power struggles have not begun because of any bloated ambitions in khaki ranks but because the politicians left their space by extremely poor and perverted styles of governance, creating a vacuum which was automatically filled by the powers waiting on the sides.
The creation of almost unconstitutional Apex Committees is the most visible example of this new power arrangement.
So if the politicians think they can assert their powers as result of this newly acquired confidence, without improving their performance, cutting down on corruption, bringing more transparency, catching the thieves and restoring their image as credible and dependable leaders, it would be suicidal.
What is certain is that the political governments at the Centre and the provinces cannot regain control of the key national security, foreign affairs, regional security and anti-terrorism policies unless the Turkish example of a sustained and visible improvement in governance and economy is followed for many years.
It has to be remembered that delivery for the masses and performance ultimately gave the strength to the Turkish politicians to challenge the generals.