Pakistan needs grooming, not surgery

Islamabad diary

Two things I thought would never happen in my lifetime: driving the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) out of their Fata safe havens and bringing the MQM to heel. Both entities seemed more powerful than all the resources of nuclear-armed Pakistan but they’ve been taken to task. And Pakistan has been saved. Otherwise there was no stopping it going down the drain.

Pakistan is sound in its basic particulars. It has just allowed needless problems to grow. But now that there is some awareness, call it belated, about those problems, there is hope that this country, Fortress of Islam etc, will finally dispense with much of its self-inflicted nonsense and get on to living like a normal nation.

As I say, I thought I would never live to see it. But Allah be praised, we are finally on the right path and not because democracy has added more charm to its colours but because the army – the decider of last resort – has seen the light and is doing what it should have started long ago.

May democracy last forever and may its balm prove our salvation. But army-led operations in Fata and Karachi have revealed the limits of Pakistani democracy. Without the army’s prodding, and this too under the aegis of an active and effective army chief, Pakistan’s democrats would have kept on orating and shadow-boxing, the arts at whose mastery they have always excelled. The tough decisions would have remained beyond them.

The TTP and the MQM have been spoken to in the only language they understand. Appeasement was tried with both and we know the results of that. Things started changing only when the army displayed its mailed fist. There are no other methods to deal with violence and terrorism. But, as Horace reminds us (in a famous quote) brute force bereft of reason is its own worst enemy. Power must always be tempered with counsel.

And that is what we are seeing. Waseem Akhtar, an MQM diehard, is mayor of Karachi and Farooq Sattar, another diehard, is being allowed to gather the MQM’s ropes in his hands. Whether he succeeds or not is of course another matter.

In the short-term these problems have been taken care of. To see that the Fata and Karachi initiatives are not allowed to slacken or wither over the long-term much depends on who succeeds Gen Raheel Sharif. He has been an outstanding commander and fitting into his shoes will not be an easy task. The politicians have to be careful on this one because an expedient choice, dictated by politics rather than merit, can be the death of both these operations. The Sharifs’ temptation will be to play politics but this must not be allowed to happen.

The politicians should keep doing what they are best at: running commission mafias. All these mega-projects with jacked-up costs are going to make some people very rich, and the already rich still more rich. As far as energy is concerned the aim should have been to produce not just more power but cheap power, competitively priced, so that our industry and exports gained the advantage. But the way the commission mafias are going about power projects – coal, gas-fired or whatever – we are set to produce the most expensive power in the region.

Alas, there is no cure for this. The commission culture is too deeply embedded in our soil. And for the Zia generation of politicians – first trained in the ISI’s stable of politics to counter the PPP – corruption, commissions and the amassing of huge, unconscionable wealth has become a way of life. So much so that the public at large takes it for granted that those in positions of power and authority will be into grand-scale corruption – each according to his deserts and merits.

The less fortunate will be raking it in here. The more fortunate will have addresses in Mayfair – Mayfair being a metaphor because their reach now is all over, from Dubai to New York and beyond. But we should stop carping. This is now the national landscape, the new topography. Jinnah’s Pakistan which never existed but which in our headier moments we keep dreaming about is for the storybooks.

Still, let’s also count our blessings. The world of Islam is in turmoil. Look at the countries in the throes of crisis and conflict: Syria, Iraq and Yemen, and Libya with no longer an effective government. Turkey was doing so well but then Sultan Erdogan – the title the veteran journalist, Robert Fisk, gives him, and quite appropriately too – had to poke his finger into everything, picking quarrels with Egypt, Syria and Russia. Now Turkey is changing course, mending fences. And Sultan Erdogan is beginning to see sense on Syria.

The House of Saud sees a resurgent Iran everywhere. This is its worst nightmare. When Iran was ostracised and isolated the Saudis were comfortable and complacent. Now they are flustered and nervous. But needlessly so: a bit of cool would tell them that their fears are exaggerated. Anyway, it is for the Saudis to get over their self-created problems. No one told them to interfere in Syria and no one told them to create a quagmire for themselves in Yemen. Furthermore, falling oil revenues have added to their worries.

Pakistan for all its problems is better off than all these countries. Two years ago before the start of the military operation in Fata Pakistan seemed well on the path of becoming another Iraq or Syria. Mercifully, we woke up just in time – not that politicians and democracy’s champions would readily acknowledge this circumstance. Since then the tide has turned. Problems haven’t disappeared…they won’t in a hurry. But the terrorism demon has been checked…and shaadi halls are doing a roaring business. If terrorism was on the march, as formerly, the shaadi hall business would collapse. So take this as a barometer.

What we are seeing is a healthy evolution of our polity. Some features of this polity can be seen, like the tip of an iceberg – parliament, trappings of democracy, etc. Some features are submerged, like the army’s decisive role in decision-making.

This is a functioning diarchy and it is good. The army taking over – as it easily could have done during the time of the dharnas two years ago – would be a disaster. But the politicians left to themselves, sole masters of the arena, spineless against violence and terrorism but veritable lions relative to commissions and overseas properties, would be another disaster, even worse than military adventurism.

So we have a balance which is keeping Pakistan steady: generals keeping politicians in check and democracy’s trappings, if nothing more, keeping the army in check.

Pakistan need not worry too much about Afghanistan. If the Americans have not been able to fix Afghanistan we are hardly in a position to do so. How the situation there plays out no one can say. Let’s only play no favourites there. That should be none of our business. This game has only brought us grief.

The thing to worry about is the economy: stagnating exports, falling remittances and the piling up of unnecessary debt. The security situation is sound, thanks to the army. The economic outlook is not so good.

Email: bhagwal63@gmail.com