PML-N, PTI, PPP in a tangle

 

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ISLAMABAD: With PTI and PPP opting for a legal battle to secure disqualification of the prime minister and family  through the Election Commission, and later, through superior courts if need be, the effort seems more like a face saving fall back situation in case the planned street protests on PanamaLeaks falls short of expectations. Or fizzles out resulting in moral and psychological set back to the opposition lot.

Even in the worst case scenario for the PTI-PPP folks, if Premier Sharif led dispensation survive their two pronged strategy, the aim would be to considerably weaken its popular Punjab base, to lessen its prospects to secure majority seats in the next elections. And eventually secure more political capital. For now, the PTI-PPP take a tedious process of law to supplement their anticipated an agitational campaign, details yet to be unveiled.

As of now, essentially for photo-op and public consumption, legal wizards of both the parties presented the filed elections petitions as if half the battle has already been won. But people in knowledge of the legal ramifications involved think of it as a long drawn battle. As the situation stands today, ask anyone across Pakistan, and everyone seems mindful how critical the next three months of July to September are for country's politics and governance. One tends to wonder whether such threat perceptions are a bit lofty, exaggerated.

Or fear factor is being trumped up amongst masses by certain quarters with vested interests to achieve their own ends. A reality check, however, suggests fault-lines do exist between power centrer. Saner elements hope for a rapprochement, agreement of co-existence on key issues of internal security and foreign diplomacy too. And extension for the current COAS could prove a much needed olive branch from the premier to the garrison. Keeping all this in mind, ruling party’s opponents prepare for a final push, and some of them are not sure whether this will be result oriented.

Or wind down like the 126 days of Islamabad sit-in which ended up in a weakened Sharif, and equally defensive opposition, especially PTI, with garrison playing a dominant role on internal security as well as foreign policy fronts. As the situation stand today, in absence of a clear cut signal from the power that be to rock the boat, the opposition lot in mindful it is going to commit itself for a risky agitational campaign. A scheme some of their leaders naively paint as a no profit, no loss situation if it all fizzles out, yet again. They, however, think political consequences of a long drawn opposition campaign will be devastating for the ruling Sharifs making him and brother chief minister weaker, less popular. All this seems too far fetched to put bets on.

As Pakistani prime minister recovers from a recent heart surgery in London to come back to country in the first half of July, he is mindful that political opponents back home are gearing up for a final pitched battle with his party, government. This time on the roads and streets of Sharif's power base the city of Lahore which historically held the key to political movements over the years. A success, will prompt the PTI to have ago at the power centre in the capital through a repeat performance sit-in.  The immediate goal of his arch political rivals -- led by cricketer turned famous politician Imran Khan seems to pin down Sharif and ruling family in corruption cases ( Panama Papers related investigation) and the force him ( Sharif to resign).

In any case scenario, as the PTI and allied brains, disciplined and otherwise, calculate the spiral affect of opposition's campaign would result in Sharif and party crumbling down as a house of cards, political dented and bruised, unable to recover or stage a comeback in the next elections. A reality check to such perceived scenarios suggests it is any body’s guess.

Premier Sharif is an unorthodox character of country's polity. Throughout his 33 years plus political career has never been an overnight success, not a hero like character, not the best of orators, public heart throbs. Still he took strides in politics through networking , hard work and with the blessings of military establishment in 80s.  He can take an unusual, unthinkable stance. Bend over backwards, or can strike back when opponents think, he is down and out. But the battle at hand is defining moment of his political life. Success can land him or his political heir another term in office. A defeat can dent his political standing badly. And records are witness.

Throughout his political career, he has confronted with four powerful military chiefs, two presidents and what not. And forced two presidents -- late Ghulam Ishaq Khan and Farooq leghari  -- to resign. Secured resignation of one military chief, and nearly ousted general Musharraf that resulted in a military coup. As a result, Sharif had to face personal and political hardships. It cost him government, a fractured party, and finally a 10 years of exile to Saudi Arabia . Like his surprised ouster in Oct 1999, his re-emergence on Pakistan political scene was equally dramatic, and securing a third term premiership was no less. He also crossed the psychological barrier of entering fourth year of his third term premiership. Now luck lands him another critical juncture of his political life.

 During his third terms as premier, Pakistan’s ailing economy has shown signs of recovery. With a significant decrease in terror related incidents, the atmosphere for investment and business is becoming conducive. But power outages, lack of tax reforms, over reliance on internal and external debt pulls his government down till today.

Politically, internal dynamics of the ruling party and inner circle around Sharif need a quick overhaul. More reliance on bureaucracy and less on cabinet and parliamentary party, and almost no input from party cadres is what everyone in the ruling party complains about these days. Dozens of national legislators recently gave some jolts to the government ministers complaining about the attitude of most minsters. The premier himself ranks amongst the legislators who show little interest in parliamentary proceedings. Then there is no cabinet reshuffle or entry/exit of ministers on performance basis for the last three years.

The picture for his opponents is also not that rosy. As Leader Imran Khan eyes another chance to dislodge the Sharifs within two years of the last adventurous sit-in, he struggles to spell out and sell Panama Papers related corruption saga to his loyalists, voters and supporters at large, just like he took pains in defining the whole elections rigging conspiracies his party failed to prove before a judicial commission in 2015. As he tries to galvanise support for streets protest at the end of July or early August, his support base largely, comprising lower middle class to middle class urbanite, mostly young to middle aged voters and supporters, are not confident about the goals of yet another political battle with the ruling party. Now some of them tend to ask pointed questions as they feel country cannot be shut down to achieve nearly revolutionary goals with the help of tried and tested team of top politicians around Imran Khan. And to what end? As the situation stands today, top PTI tier is almost full of former PPP, PML-Q and PML-N stalwarts now serving the party.  Then there is this PTI’s KP government being blamed for corruption, nepotism, and lethargic attitude by none else but its own provincial and national legislators.

In power in the Sindh province, for most part of the last eight years, the PPP has introduced one of the weirdest systems of governance in that province devoid of checks and balances. Trying hard at the moment to stage a come back on the national scene through the young chairman Bilawal Bhutto. But as the young leader tries to make his mark in today’s polity, he is pulled down by Inept governance model, law and order turmoil in his party ruled province. For the three parties (PML-N, PPP, PTI) part of this political tangle at the moment, it’s like three wrestlers having one of their hands tied to their backs. These are shackles of the governance in respective provinces and center they rule.