Exceptional rainfall most likely behind Jhelum water surge

ISLAMABAD: Although initial speculation attributed the recent surge in Jhelum River’s flow to flash floods triggered by India after the suspension of Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a detailed analysis of meteorological data suggests a different cause.

The surge in Jhelum River’s water flow is most likely the result of exceptional rainfall in Kashmir Valley, as supported by meteorological data.

Between April 18 and April 24, 2025, the Kashmir Valley experienced 126.82 per cent above normal level rainfall, reveals a fact-finding report authored by Arshad H Abbasi, an eminent water expert who has been a part of Track-2 water diplomacy with India. He also worked as a trans-boundary water expert with China, Bangladesh and Central Asia.

“The recent investigations have focused on the unusual increase in water levels observed in Jhelum River, which has sparked widespread discussion about its underlying causes.

“This substantial rainfall is the most likely cause of the heightened river flow, rather than any immediate actions tied to the suspension of treaty. India’s decision to suspend the IWT has raised concerns about potential measures that could adversely impact Pakistan. Among these measures is the flushing of reservoirs for hydropower generation, a practice permitted under the treaty only during the peak monsoon season in August.”

However, with the treaty currently in suspension, the report says, India can carry out reservoir flushing at any time. If done during Pakistan’s sowing season, such actions could disrupt irrigation and agricultural activities in Punjab, a region heavily reliant on the Indus River and its tributaries.

India operates two major hydropower projects on Jhelum River: the Lower Jhelum Hydroelectric Project in Baramulla and Uri-I Hydroelectric Project. While these facilities grant India limited control over regulating flows in Jhelum, it is expected that strategic reservoir flushing is more likely to be carried out on the Chenab River, due to its higher strategic significance.

The report also says that India’s designation of National Waterway-49 (NW-49) as part of its Inland Water Transport (IWT) network has introduced further complexities in regional water management and Pakistan’s water rights.

Experts had forewarned Pakistan in January 2022 about India’s plans to operationalise inland water transport on Jhelum, Chenab and the Indus River.

This initiative is perceived by Pakistan as the revival of Tulbul Navigation Project, also known as Wular Barrage. Officially intended to regulate water flow for maintaining navigable depths during winter, Pakistan views it as a storage barrage with a capacity of approximately 0.3 million acre-feet.

“Rapid progress on Inland Water Transport ignoring Pakistan’s objections, India has accelerated the development of its inland water transport system. Seven floating jetties have already been completed along the stretch from Anantnag to Wular Lake. This project enables India to manage river flows more effectively, ensuring consistent navigation during low-flow periods and potentially increasing water discharge during flood seasons. These capabilities could exacerbate Pakistan’s vulnerability in terms of irrigation and agriculture, particularly in regions reliant on the Indus River system.”

India’s actions following the suspension of the IWT, including reservoir flushing and operationalization of NW-49, highlight the increasing complexities of water resource management in the region. These developments pose significant challenges to Pakistan’s agriculture and irrigation systems.