Stocks suffer massive 3,882-point loss as recession clouds loom

KARACHI: Stocks plunged by around 3.3 per cent on Monday amid a crash in the global equity markets, as the US tariff war raised concerns over a global recession. The Pakistan Stock Exchange halted trading for a brief period while the index witnessed the highest-ever intra-day decline in one day. The market closed with a loss of around Rs474.225 billion.

Trading was temporarily halted after an initial 5.0 per cent drop in the KSE-30 triggered circuit breakers. The dramatic sell-off was primarily fuelled by China’s retaliatory tariffs against the US, intensifying fears of a potential global recession. This escalation in trade tensions sent shockwaves through emerging markets, analysts said.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 index plunged by 3,882.17 points, or 3.27 per cent, to 114,909.49 points, down from the 118,791.66 points recorded in the last session. The highest index of the day remained at 117,601.62 points, while the lowest level was recorded at 110,103.98 points.

CEO of Topline Securities Mohammed Sohail said that following the global market crash, the Pakistan market lost 3.3 per cent owing to the escalating tariff war initiated by the US and subsequently retaliated by other nations. After hitting a halt when it fell 5.0 per cent trading resumed after the cooling period and saw some value buying

“At the sector level, the oil and gas exploration sector, technology, and the textile sector are expected to be affected as these are either linked to global commodity prices (like crude oil) or linked with global aggregate demand,” he said. “Also, amid lower oil prices, inflation might ease down and can help reduce interest rates further, which may result in lower earnings of the banks going forward as well.”

On the macro side, he said, every $10/barrel decline in oil prices results in the import bill saving of $2 billion for crude oil, refined oil (petrol diesel), and RLNG import. “Assuming a decline of 5-10 per cent in textile exports to the US (which is $250-500 million), the country will save net $1-1.5 billion in the import bill.” The KSE-30 index decreased by 1,237.49 points or 3.36 per cent to 35,541.31 points against 36,778.81 points.

Traded shares increased by 157 million shares to 710.788 million shares from 553.668 million shares. The trading value rose to Rs43.023 billion from Rs35.492 billion. Market capital narrowed to Rs14.001 trillion against Rs14.475 trillion. Of the 450 companies active in the session, 52 closed in green, 357 in red and 41 remained unchanged.

Analyst Muhammad Hasan Ather at JS Global said the KSE-100 index suffered its worst single-day decline in history, crashing 8,688 points (7.3 per cent) amid global market turmoil, closing at 114,909, down 3.3 per cent.

“Looking ahead, market volatility is expected to persist until there’s clarity on the US-China trade situation, with investors advised to remain cautious in the short term,” he said. The highest increase was recorded in Philip Morris (Pakistan) Limited, which rose by Rs98.20 to Rs1,080.18 per share, followed by The Thal Industries Corporation Limited, which increased by Rs24.28 to Rs374.28 per share. A significant decline was noted in Bata Pakistan Limited, which fell by Rs157.05 to Rs1,528.76 per share; Nestle Pakistan Limited followed it, which closed lower by Rs149.98 to Rs7,200.02 per share.

Ahsan Mehanti, an analyst at Arif Habib Corp, said, “Stocks plunged amid rout in global equities after Trump showed no sign of backing away from US tariff plans, mounting risk of global recession.” He said that worries over 29 per cent massive US reciprocal tariff levies to be effective next week, LSM contraction and the falling rupee played a catalyst role in the record bearish close at the PSX.

However, the late session retreat witnessed on government hopes to negotiate on US tariffs, the PM announced the industrial power tariff cut and upbeat CPI inflation data stood at 0.7 per cent YoY in March 25, likely to further ease SBP policy next month. WorldCall Telecom remained the volume leader with 55.274 million shares, which closed lower by 7 paisas to Rs1.28 per share. Cnergyico PK, with 53.401 million shares, followed it, which closed lower by 46 paisas to Rs7.83 per share.

Other significant turnover stocks included BO Punjab XD, Pak Elektron, Maple Leaf, Pak Int. Bulk, K-Electric Ltd., Sui South Gas, Fauji Cement and Pak Refinery.In the futures market, 316 companies recorded trading, 16 of which increased and 300 decreased.