Assertion that Asia is getting ‘dangerously unbalanced’ disputed

ISLAMABAD: The assertion that Asia is getting dangerously unbalanced by a professor of international relations at Harvard University and columnist Stephen Walt while referring to the policies of President Trump, has been disputed by diplomats, intellectuals and opinion makers here.

They have maintained that Trump has gone beyond the usual in trying to reframe the world. They opined that the columnist has conveyed a false sense of alarm and fear. Former federal minister and independent politician, Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed, who is viewed as an authority on China and regional issues, former foreign secretary Salman Bashir, Chairperson & President South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI) University Dr. Maria Sultan has also disputed the approach regarding China by making it clear that Beijing stands for peaceful cooperation, not hegemony.

The article has appeared in Washington based “Foreign Policy” magazine that has given way to the debate. Professor Stephen Walt referred to gradual expansion in its Asian allies by the US. “The clear objective of this coalition was straightforward: to prevent China from dominating the region. Key elements of that effort included shifting additional US forces to the region; negotiating the AUKUS agreement between Australia, UK, and the US; signing the Camp David agreement for enhanced security cooperation between the US, South Korea, and Japan; convincing the Philippines to reverse course and deepen its ties with the United States (including a greater US military presence there); expanding security cooperation with India; and continuing the work of the so-called Quad (including the United States, India, Japan, and Australia).”

The professor says that “The US and its Asian partners have powerful and obvious reasons to continue and deepen their alliance ties, no matter who occupies the White House. It also implies an optimistic conclusion: The balance of power will work as described, and a Chinese attempt to dominate the region would be self-defeating.” He warned that for starters, China hasn’t been sitting on its hands. It’s adapting to these new circumstances and, in some cases, succeeding. The launch of DeepSeek’s artificial intelligence model isn’t quite a “Sputnik moment,” but it demonstrated an ability to innovate around some of the barriers the United States has tried to impose on Chinese technology developments.

China continues to pour a lot of money and effort into its domestic chipmaking capacity and quantum computing, and it already dominates a host of green technologies (such as electric vehicles) that the US is turning its back on. Second, one of America’s most important the professor reminded that South Korea is in political turmoil, following impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol’s failed attempt to impose martial law back in December 2024. Even if the present crisis is eventually resolved and stability restored, South Korean society is likely to remain sharply polarized. There is also the distinct possibility that opposition leader Lee Jae-myung will eventually gain the presidency, and Lee has been more skeptical of US-Korea ties and has favored a more conciliatory approach to China and North Korea in the past.

The professor ‘revealed’ that China faces serious demographic issues, but so do Japan and South Korea. The median age in Taiwan is 44, in South Korea it’s nearly 45, and in Japan it is almost 50. In the United States it’s roughly 38, and in China it is a little over 40. By contrast, the Indian, Indonesian, and Philippine populations are much younger, with median ages under 30.

For the former countries, shrinking and increasingly older populations will make it harder to increase their military capabilities significantly, if only because taking young men and women out of the workforce and putting them in uniform makes the economy less productive. According to the professor, President Donald Trump has said China is an economic and military rival, and there are prominent China hawks in key positions in his administration. Confronting China is also one of the few issues on which there is wide bipartisan support. But on the other hand, US businesses leaders (and especially people such as Elon Musk) don’t want a clash with China to disrupt their own commercial dealings with Beijing.

Trump has expressed doubts about defending Taiwan in the past, and one of the administration’s first moves was to pressure Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC to invest some $100 billion in the United States over the next few years. Trump thinks of himself as a master dealmaker (despite an unimpressive track record), and he’d like to negotiate some sort of bargain with Chinese President Xi Jinping, with whom he claims to have a good relationship.

“The United States hasn’t had a serious economic strategy for Asia since Trump killed off the Trans-Pacific Partnership at the start of his first term, and the Biden administration didn’t come up with one either. The tariffs just announced on foreign automobiles and auto parts will hit South Korea and Japan hard, which is hardly an ideal way to encourage greater strategic solidarity with either country.”

Beijing was quick to exploit the opening, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi stressing the “great potential” for trade and stability in a recent meeting with Japanese and South Korean officials, telling them that “close neighbours are better than relatives far away.”

Professor Stephen Walt concluded by claiming that one must consider whether the basic character of the US government is being transformed in ways that will undermine some of the glue that has held America’s Asian alliances together. Although these arrangements have never been dependent on shared values or institutions (i.e., South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines were all dictatorships for extended periods), the fact that most US partners in Asia have been like-minded democracies in recent years has helped reinforce those ties.

If the United States is on the road to autocracy itself, however, that additional source of unity (not to mention the previously clear distinction between the US and Chinese political orders) will be gone. “States in anarchy tend to be acutely sensitive to threats, and a powerful and increasingly ambitious China gives its neighbours and the US ample reason to work together to limit Beijing’s sway. US’s Asian alliances will survive because the US does not want China to become a hegemonic power in Asia, it cannot work to prevent that without partners in the region, and those potential partners don’t want to live within a Chinese sphere of influence.

In his reaction Senator Mushahid Hussain Syed reminded that article by Stephen Walt, an otherwise respected writer whose book on the Israeli Lobby in the US was a bestseller, is “based on flawed facts and false assumptions.”

Three are noteworthy. The article represents the old, outdated assumptions of the traditional mindset of the Washington Security Establishment, which have been discarded by the Trump Admin and righty so too! First, Prof Walt sticks to an old assumption, that is factually incorrect, namely, that China needs to be countered as ‘China is a hegemonic power’.

Senator Mushahid said emphatically that China has not invaded, occupied or aggressed against any country nor does it have any single overseas military base in Asia, while US has over 400 military bases in Asia. Second, Prof Walt’s conveys a false sense of alarm and fear when he writes that ‘who knows what Trump might give away’ to China, in case of a China-US understanding? “If Trump has an understanding with China, it would mean no new Cold War and it means stability in Asia, strengthening peace, and there’s nothing to ‘give away’ as China isn’t asking for anything! Third, Prof Walt talks of an alliance of ‘likeminded democracies’, which is again a false assumption given the kind of democracy that exists in India (bigoted Hindutva), South Korea (President Yoon tried to impose Martial Law) and Philippines (struggle for power between president & vice president).

He termed the views of the professor as “weak and flawed and not relevant to new emerging Asian & global realities.” Former foreign secretary, who is a distinguished diplomat while talking to The News from the US said that Trump has gone beyond the usual in trying to reframe the world. “All assumptions of the past, referred by Stephen Walt, no longer hold. His understanding of China is deficient. China stands for peaceful cooperation, not hegemony.”

He said that Trump may come around to developing some sort of cooperative business with China. “The essential thing is to create a situation in which China, Russia, and the US are all accommodated. Trump’s initial actions notably towards Russia were an indication of this belief. As far as China is concerned, we have seen some restraint in rhetoric. I have in mind the end state. We are at the opening phase. Of course, the glue of Quad and Aukus and such Asian alliances could unravel with what the regional states see happening in the US.” Salman Bashir has reminded that these are no ordinary times. The inflection point has been crossed, and the international order has been undermined by its greatest proponent.