Shifting geopolitics after Trump’s victory could improve Pak-India ties: Kasuri

LAHORE: Dialogue is the only solution to the prevailing tensions between India and Pakistan. This was the crux of a discussion held under the aegis of the Institute of Peace and Connectivity (IPAC) here on Thursday.

Key speakers included former foreign minister Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri, Ashis Ray, the CNN South Asia founding chief, author, analyst as well as great grand nephew of Indian freedom fighter Subhas Chandra Bose, former federal ministers, advisers Syed Salman Shah, Abdul Razzaq Daud and others.

Answering questions of senior journalists and defence analysts from all over Pakistan, Kasuri stressed “dialogue, dialogue, dialogue” was the only solution to the prevailing issues between India and Pakistan.

Kasuri, who is also the chairman of IPAC, emphasized that shifting geopolitical realities on the global stage following President Trump’s victory could present an opportunity for improved Pakistan-India relations. He, however, cautioned that terrorism posed an equal threat to both countries and could undermine any possibilities of potential diplomatic progress.

He said that since both countries possessed large standing armies, with huge nuclear stockpiles and strike capabilities, it would be sheer madness to even think of war. It would be a pity if they missed the opportunity to resolve their disputes peacefully since they already possessed an agreed template for a possible solution of Jammu and Kashmir in the form of the so-called four-point formula (actually eleven to twelve points).

Addressing the issue of terrorism, Kasuri, referring to the arrest of Kulbhushan Jadhav on the charges of espionage and terrorism in Balochistan, pointed to widespread suspicions regarding India’s involvement in attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.

He cited the statements from Indian leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh, and Ajit Doval in this respect. The former foreign minister cautioned that both countries could play this “game” and engage in a counterproductive cycle of actions and reactions, with neither emerging as a winner.

He went on to say that he had dealt with both BJP and Congress governments under Prime Ministers Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh and was, therefore, certain that despite the bleak situation currently, the silent majority of the people of India did not agree with the policies of the current government.

He reminded the audience that the BJP had polled slightly above a third of votes cast. He added that, hopefully, therefore, Prime Minister Modi after having become PM thrice, may well think of leaving a legacy and hoped that he and others like him were not all wrong.

He also spoke on the complexities of Pakistan-India relations, and welcomed Ashis Ray, grandson of Subash Chandra Bose, a distinguished journalist, author, analyst of Indian origin based in London for the last 50 years.

Ray, a prominent Pakistan-India peace activist, was the keynote speaker at the event.

Kasuri referred to almost “earth-shaking” changes in geopolitics since President Trump assumed office and which have affected America’s friends and foes equally. This was bound to affect every country, including India.

The former foreign minister advised India to take note of this, and cited a recent article by India’s former foreign secretary Shyam Saran who had advised India not to count on the US and had said that “India has to be careful and ensure that it does not come to be seen as a convenient pawn for the US in the big power game”. He further advised India that it must improve its relations, inter-alia, with its own sub-continental neighbours. Despite these challenges and current hostility, Kasuri noted that his experience has taught him that Pakistan-India relations were subject to sudden positive shifts.

Kasuri said that he would not rule out similar surprises for the better in the future. Assessing the current state of relations, the former foreign minister described this period as one of the worst periods in history, barring times of actual war. He said even after wars, Pakistan and India quickly came to the table to restart peace process.

He attributed this decline primarily to the rise of Hindutva-driven rhetoric in India, which had been used to polarise electorate through anti-Muslim, anti-Pakistan, and anti-Bangladesh sentiments to win votes. He, however, noted that history had also shown that relations could improve quite suddenly and unexpectedly.

Ashis Ray, a Pakistan-India peace activist, suggested the way forward between Pakistan and India. He stated a good diplomacy could reduce the volume of defence budget and prove vital for other sectors of the country as well as economy.

Ray reminded the audience that immense progress had been made in 2004-2008 between the two governments officially as well as on the back channel (Ambassador SK Lamba and Tariq Aziz).

This historic peace process between the two countries had resulted in the conclusion of a framework of a possible solution of Jammu and Kashmir, which has been the cause of wars in the past. He added that while some may say that it was an opportunity lost, but luckily not all is lost, since we have a “template” and can resume negotiations from where the two countries left off.

Ray paid tribute to Kasuri for his role as foreign minister of Pakistan. Ray, while answering the questions of participants stated that India also needs to address its internal conflicts which was possible if the ideology followed in Nehru’s time was followed. He stated that despite all the critical phases in relationship between the two sides, they would have to adopt the way of dialogue. Ray also stated that during the dialogue, parties could adopt a hard line or a soft line but there should have been a line which provides solution.