India’s water warfare: engineering scarcity and ecological crisis

India’s water aggression in Kashmir is not only jeopardizing lower riparian Pakistan but is also wreaking havoc on the very region from which these waters originate. The aggressive construction of hydropower projects in the ecologically fragile region of Jammu and Kashmir poses a grave environmental and human crisis, which demands urgent international attention before it escalates into a full-blown climate disaster.

The rapid construction of these hydropower projects aligns with India’s broader strategy to control and utilize the water resources of the Chenab River, raising concerns about environmental sustainability and regional stability. The fast-tracking of these projects without comprehensive ecological assessments poses a serious threat to the fragile ecosystem of Jammu and Kashmir. Additionally, these projects are viewed as part of India’s larger water policy, which has significant implications for Pakistan, particularly in the context of the Indus Waters Treaty.

As the world observes International Rivers Day on March 14, it is crucial to highlight the growing risks posed by India’s unilateral water policies. This day serves as a reminder of the need to protect rivers from over-exploitation, ecological damage, and political manipulation. India’s increasing dam construction in Kashmir could lead to reduced water flows into Pakistan, exacerbating tensions between the two countries and impacting agriculture, drinking water supply, and hydropower generation. The lack of transparency and cooperation in these projects threatens not only Pakistan’s water security but also the delicate environmental balance of the region.

Kishtwar, a mountainous district in Jammu and Kashmir, is now the epicenter of India’s hydropower expansion. The Chenab River, a major tributary of the Indus, courses through this rugged terrain before flowing into Pakistan. Under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan was allocated the waters of the western rivers, including the Chenab, while India retained control over the eastern rivers. However, India has been aggressively pushing hydropower projects in defiance of the treaty’s spirit, endangering both Kashmir and Pakistan.

The Indian government is currently constructing seven new hydropower projects in Kishtwar, totaling a massive capacity of 5,190 MW. These projects, including the Pakal Dul, Kiru, and Kwar dams, are being fast-tracked without sufficient environmental scrutiny. The consequences of this rapid damming are already evident. Thousands of people have been displaced, agricultural lands submerged, and entire villages wiped off the map.

The human cost of this water aggression is immense. As Raqib Hameed Naik, an environmentalist in his article published in Dialogue Earth, highlighted that families like that of Isher Das, whose land was acquired for the 390 MW Dul Hasti dam, have suffered decades of bureaucratic neglect and broken promises. Even after 37 years of struggle, their compensation remained inadequate. The story repeats itself with Abdul Qayoom, a teacher forced to abandon his ancestral home for the Kiru dam, leaving him economically and socially uprooted. The promised rehabilitation and job assurances have largely remained unfulfilled, turning thousands of once self-sufficient villagers into landless migrants.

Beyond human displacement, the environmental ramifications of this dam-building spree are severe. Experts warn that constructing large dams in an active seismic zone like Kishtwar is a recipe for disaster. A study by conducted by seismologists from the Bangalore-based Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research in 2018 predicted an overdue earthquake of magnitude 8.5 or higher in the region. The 1967 Koyna earthquake in Maharashtra, that killed nearly 200 people caused by reservoir-induced seismicity, remains a stark reminder of the dangers posed by such projects.

Moreover, the indiscriminate construction of dams disrupts the natural hydrology of rivers, leading to increased landslides, soil erosion, and biodiversity loss. The case of the 2009 Assar landslide, which cut off Doda district for a month, was linked to the nearby Baglihar dam. The destruction of forests and diversion of river flows are further exacerbating climate vulnerabilities, making the region more prone to extreme weather events and glacial melt.

Pakistan, as the lower riparian state, is already facing the repercussions of India’s water policies. Reduced water flows in the Indus Basin threaten agriculture, food security, and livelihoods, particularly in Punjab and Sindh, which depend heavily on the Indus for irrigation. Furthermore, the manipulation of water releases by India has led to unexpected floods and droughts in Pakistan, exacerbating climate-induced water stress.

International bodies must intervene before this situation spirals out of control. The unchecked damming of rivers in a conflict zone like Indian illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir, under the guise of development, is not only a violation of the Indus Waters Treaty but also an ecological catastrophe in the making. The World Bank, as a guarantor of the treaty, must take a more assertive role in ensuring compliance. Additionally, the UN and climate watchdogs should treat India’s water aggression as a climate justice issue, compelling it to conduct thorough environmental impact assessments and adhere to international water-sharing norms.

The people of Kashmir, already grappling with political turmoil, now find themselves at the mercy of ruthless hydro-politics. The destruction of their homes, land, and environment under the pretext of energy development is an extension of their decades-long suffering. If the global community fails to act, both Kashmir and Pakistan will bear the brunt of this unfolding disaster, with irreversible consequences for regional stability and climate resilience.

Water should be a source of life and cooperation, not conflict and destruction. The world must recognize India’s water policies in Kashmir for what they truly are—an instrument of aggression that endangers not just the region but the entire Indus Basin. The time to act is now, before this reckless damming turns into an irreversible climate catastrophe.