Tarbela, Mangla near dead levels: IRSA

ISLAMABAD: Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs are nearing dead levels, threatening water supply to Punjab and Sindh, as the country battles persistent water shortages, the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) warned on Friday.

In an official communication to provincial irrigation departments, IRSA highlighted that depletion to dead levels is a common occurrence, but it could lead to water supply disruptions to Punjab and Sindh, which have already experienced shortfalls.

The warning follows an earlier operational assessment by the IRSA Advisory Committee (IAC), which predicted that reservoirs would hit dead levels in early March.

Punjab experienced a 20 per cent shortfall, while Sindh saw a 14 per cent deficit between Oct 1, 2024, and Feb 28, 2025, IRSA said in an official notice. The shortages were slightly lower than the 16 per cent projected by its advisory committee in October. A recent rain spell provided temporary relief, but IRSA cautioned that before the next expected rainfall, shortages could spike to 30-35 per cent as reservoirs operate in a run-of-the-river mode, it said.

Notably, major reservoirs are hovering near their minimum operating levels, raising alarms over potential water shortages in the coming months.

According to the Water and Power Development Authority’s (Wapda) daily report on Friday, Tarbela Dam’s water level stood at 1,409.5 feet, only 7.5 feet above its minimum operating level of 1,402 feet. Similarly, Mangla Dam was at 1,088.45 feet, just 38.45 feet above its critical limit of 1,050 feet, while Chashma Barrage registered 643.2 feet against a minimum of 638.15 feet.

However, an IRSA spokesperson said provinces will face this shortage during the last two weeks of the ongoing Rabi season. In Pakistan, Rabi (winter crops) season starts in October with major crops like wheat, barley, lentil, potatoes, onions, tomatoes, etc and ends on 31 March.

“This issue is being closely monitored,” said Muhammad Khalid Idrees Rana, IRSA’s director of operations, urging provincial irrigation authorities to implement contingency measures.

Meanwhile, the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) has issued a warning about emerging drought conditions in 13 districts of Sindh, including Karachi and Hyderabad.

The affected areas include Karachi, Hyderabad, Thatta, Badin, Dadu, Sukkur, Ghotki, Khairpur Mirs, Shaheed Benazirabad, Naushero Feroz (Padidan), Larkano, Jacobabad, Tharparkar and adjacent regions. Authorities have urged residents and stakeholders to take precautionary measures to mitigate potential impacts.

As per official correspondence, Sindh province is facing an alarming water crisis as the country’s reservoirs approach exhaustion due to exceptionally low rainfall during the current Rabi season.

The situation is particularly dire for Sindh, where water shortages may exceed 50 per cent during the remaining weeks of March and the early Kharif season if current inflow trends persist.

The PDMA had already issued a warning on January 25, 2025, highlighting emerging drought conditions in several districts of Sindh. A rotation plan for water distribution is being prepared to ensure judicious and equitable allocation among farmers across the province.

The director (regulation) of the Sindh Irrigation Department has directed the chief engineers of Guddu, Kotri and Sukkur barrages (right and left bank regions), and the managing director of Sindh Irrigation and Drainage Authority to take all necessary measures to combat the situation by preparing rotation plan to ensure equitable distribution of available water to all the areas and farmers of the province.