Reality check

While Pakistan’s ruling structure left no space this month in celebrating Maryam Nawaz Sharif’s first year in office, Punjab which stands at the centre of the country’s outlook presented many examples of deepening woes.

In sharp contrast to the official claim that the province is heading towards 'meaningful change', the reality is tragically more 'meaningless' for a large mass of its population across the grassroots. Together, the official image versus the powerful reality on the ground presents solid evidence of a missing reality check.

While the leadership structure in Punjab pushes ahead with fresh infrastructure projects such as fancy new roads, high-speed trains and even a reported underground urban train in Lahore, the crisis surrounding Pakistan is evident nowhere more than across the rural part of the province. There, a combination of this year’s fallout from climate change exhibited through scant rainfall and the fallout from one of the government’s key policy failures has hit farmers more than ever before.

It was just last year when the much-celebrated tenure of the chief minister began in tandem with one of the worst policy failures in history. The matter in question was triggered by the abrupt withdrawal of the subsidy for the wheat crop harvested in early 2024 after the government earlier announced that subsidy which encouraged farmers to sow wheat on a larger acreage. The subsequent abrupt withdrawal of that subsidy in its immediate aftermath hit farmers with a sudden and abrupt drop in wheat prices by up to a third.

Since then, many of the poorest farmers across the province have reeled under the devastating financial fallout from the government-backed traumatic change. Today, anecdotal evidence from parts of Punjab which is home to almost 60 per cent of Pakistan’s population suggests a significant pileup of debts surrounding the farming community. And the 60 per cent translates into more than 140 million people – a staggering figure that exceeds the entire population of many countries across the world.

Meanwhile, conditions across the agricultural sector continue to worsen under the weight of events related to climate change, which has thrown up an intense need for newer varieties of seeds capable of withstanding the effects of fast-rising temperatures. Besides, Pakistan’s agricultural sector also needs innovation in the areas of farm technologies and other inputs, to boost yields that have either remained stagnant or dropped for years.

To that end, there are areas in urgent need of the state’s intervention in matters like the creation of newer research outfits or revamping the present ones to support the farming community. The next step ought to involve the immediate backing of the private sector, notably banks to step in and extend credit to farmers. Working in tandem, these two pillars of a new financial outreach can well support the badly needed revamp for lifting food security.

Meanwhile, both Pakistan’s federal and provincial governments need to immediately halt areas of spending on populist ventures. Newer infrastructure projects of the kind pursued in the Punjab must be suspended in favour of the pursuit of food security. Given the history of wastage and corruption involving past infrastructure projects, Pakistan’s federal and provincial leaders must be forced to step back from such ventures till far more durable formulas are adopted for public sector expenditure.

Other areas at the centre of past wastages such as billions of rupees used to arm federal and provincial legislators to oversee development work in their constituencies, must also be suspended. Ideally, in a democratic society, the prime responsibility of elected leaders remains fundamentally that of representing the interests of their constituents rather than assuming responsibility for brick-and-mortar-related work.

Together, such savings must be used primarily for reining in Pakistan’s debt and its related servicing responsibilities. Besides, further expenditure on public works must primarily be made towards meeting national objectives. In today’s environment, the fallout from climate change dictates in favour of meeting national emergencies such as building dams to meet Pakistan’s shrinking water storage capacity.

Other priority areas must be tied towards urgently tackling deficiencies in Pakistan’s educational and health-related sectors. Given the steep challenges surrounding Pakistan, newer infrastructure pursuits must fall way down the line among priority areas.

Pakistan’s decades of failure in attaining fiscal responsibility has not only caused havoc with the country’s public finances. It is a tragic direction that has made Pakistan increasingly vulnerable over time to external pressures.

It is hardly surprising that members of a visiting IMF delegation for a periodic review of progress under an IMF loan programme have recently met with a cross-section of stakeholders including the higher judiciary. This unusual exercise has confirmed the suspicion that global lenders are just not willing to trust the word of Pakistan’s federal or provincial governments. The reckless expenditure plan adopted in Punjab during the past year must be reversed to show that there are limits to financial carelessness by those in power.

The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist who writes on political and economic affairs. He can be reached at: farhanbokhari@gmail.com