The race for AI supremacy

The global AI race has evolved far beyond a technological contest; it’s now a strategic geopolitical battle akin to an arms race, where controlling AI – along with the data and machine learning models that power it – translates into global influence.

Shortly after his inauguration, US President Trump launched the ‘Stargate’ initiative, announcing a $500 billion investment to build a robust AI infrastructure and secure an edge over international competitors. This bold move complemented the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, which allocated $280 billion to boost US semiconductor manufacturing. Under Stargate, the US plans to construct over 20 massive data centres – each covering roughly half a million square feet – and create more than 100,000 jobs, reinforcing its digital backbone.

In a striking counterpoint, China demonstrated its own innovation when the startup DeepSeek unveiled an AI model that rivaled the world’s leading chatbots. Remarkably, DeepSeek built one of the most potent AI systems using only 2,000 gaming chips with a modest $6 million in machine learning costs – a stark contrast to US companies that employed over 16,000 specialised chips with significantly higher expenses.

DeepSeek’s efficiency not only outperformed competitors like ChatGPT and Meta but also challenged the notion that cutting-edge AI demands enormous capital. By making its models open-source, DeepSeek also allowed the global developer community to inspect and enhance the technology. Its mobile app quickly soared to the top of the charts, garnering 1.6 million downloads in just a few days and even triggering a sharp downturn in US financial markets.

The momentum of AI breakthroughs continued at the AI Action Summit in France, co-chaired by France and India. Heads of state, corporate leaders and over 1,000 AI experts from more than 100 countries gathered to discuss themes such as Public Interest AI, the Future of Work, Innovation and Culture, Trust in AI, and Global AI Governance. At the summit, Europe pledged 110 billion euros in AI investments, signaling its determination to compete globally.

Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance asserted that America would dominate the AI landscape, cautioning that Europe might soon face a choice between adopting American technology or aligning with authoritarian regimes, a not-very-veiled reference to China. Notably, the US and UK chose not to sign the summit’s declaration calling for open policies, innovation-first approaches, and minimal regulation, highlighting the intense competitive spirit driving the global AI race.

By 2023, data clearly placed the US at the forefront of AI supremacy. The US led across multiple dimensions – ranging from pioneering research and the development of innovative machine learning models to robust private investments. Trailing closely were China and UK, both of which have rapidly escalated their AI efforts and emerged as formidable contenders.

At the heart of this competition is the race to develop Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), sometimes called Agentic AI – a system envisioned as a ‘virtual superhuman’ with unparalleled cognitive capabilities. Experts predict that early versions of AGI could emerge as soon as 2026. When combined with the emerging field of quantum computing, AGI could eventually eclipse human intelligence, fundamentally transforming sectors such as education, healthcare, transportation, defence, finance, energy, climate management and even government operations. This transformative vision is steadily shifting from the realm of science fiction to tangible reality.

Amid these global shifts, nations like Pakistan face significant challenges and vast opportunities. The global AI market, which surpassed $184 billion in 2023, is projected to exceed $800 billion in the coming years, unlocking enormous potential across multiple sectors. Yet, in South Asia, Pakistan lags behind, while India leads with IT exports exceeding $200 billion, including $8 billion in AI-related products. Capturing even one per cent of this burgeoning market could allow Pakistan to more than double its IT exports to over $6 billion within a few years.

Pakistan has launched several initiatives, including the Presidential Initiative for Artificial Intelligence & Computing (PIAIC) and the Governor Sindh Initiative for GenAI, Web3 and the Metaverse, among others. However, many of these efforts have yet to achieve the scale or quality needed to make a global impact. Chronic bureaucratic inefficiencies, political interference, and restrictive IT policies – such as firewalls, VPN bans and social media restrictions – have further hampered the nation’s digital progress. These barriers have cost the economy dearly, triggering a brain drain of talented IT professionals and undermining Pakistan’s potential for AI growth.

To seize the opportunities presented by the AI revolution, Pakistan must adopt a decisive, multi-faceted strategy. A National Task Force on AI should be established, led by the prime minister and comprising key figures from both the public and private sectors.

This task force should be charged with formulating and implementing comprehensive policies across all sectors. A major first step should be an overhaul of the IT and computer science curriculum in higher education to align with global standards. Courses in AI, innovation, and entrepreneurship should become mandatory for all undergraduates.

The government should also invest in digital infrastructure by equipping students with essential tools – such as laptops, smartphones, and free high-speed internet – upon university enrollment. Each higher education institution should be encouraged to set up IT business incubators through strong public-private partnerships. Existing bodies like the Higher Education Commission (HEC), the National Vocational Training and Technical Training Commission (NAVTTC) and the Technical Education and Vocational Training Authority (TEVTA) must undergo reforms to keep pace with the rapidly evolving AI landscape. IT certifications in Pakistan should be accredited by globally recognised agencies to ensure international credibility.

Ultimately, Pakistan’s future depends on building a skilled workforce and prioritising the IT sector. By investing in education, modernising digital infrastructure and reforming outdated policies, Pakistan can secure a meaningful share of the global AI market and emerge as a competitive player on the world stage.

The writer is a former senator and former chairperson of the HEC.