ISLAMABAD: Major political parties largely retained their cumulative and individual vote banks across both National and provincial assemblies in General Elections 2024 (GE-2024), according to the Free and Fair Election Network’s (FAFEN) latest report titled “GE-2024 National and Provincial Elections: Votes Polled and Party Shares in Votes and Seats.”
According to FAFEN report during GE-2024, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), and Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) collectively secured 68 percent of the vote share for the National Assembly (NA) and 62 percent for the four provincial assemblies.
This report, the second in the FAFEN brief series on GE-2024, provides an analysis of political parties’ shares in the popular vote and their corresponding seats in the National and provincial assemblies.
By comparison, these parties had received 69 percent and 61 percent vote shares, respectively, in GE-2018, and 65 percent and 58 percent in GE-2013.
In the broader context of the consolidation of votes in fewer parties, the Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) strengthened its hold in Sindh, whereas Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) strengthened its hold in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Punjab transitioned from PMLN’s dominance in 2013 to a competitive two-party race between PMLN and PTI in 2018.
In the 2024 elections, competition between the two parties dominated National and provincial assembly elections in the province.
The PTI maintained its leading position in the NA elections, with a narrow lead of one percentage point over the PMLN. However, in provincial assembly elections, the PMLN edged out the PTI by a single percentage point.
In Balochistan, while national-level parties have increased their share of votes in both national and provincial elections, other parties and independent candidates continue to hold significant shares of both votes and seats.
Compared with provincial vote shares, the cumulative and individual party shares of the top three parties (PTI, PMLN, and PPP) are higher in national elections. This trend, albeit with slight variations, has persisted since 2013.
In terms of the comparative party share of votes and seats, overall, all three leading parties (PTI, PMLN, and PPPP) gained a higher share of national and provincial seats than their share of votes.
Compared with their respective shares of votes, PTI in KP and PPPP in Sindh received significantly higher shares of national and provincial assembly seats.
The PTI secured 45 percent of votes and 80 percent of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s National Assembly seats and won 75 percent of the provincial assembly seats for a share of 38 percent of the votes.
The PPPP won 72 percent of Sindh’s National Assembly seats for its share of 46 percent of votes and also won 65 percent of the provincial assembly seats for 46 percent of the votes.
In Punjab, PMLN and PTI secured significantly higher proportions of national and provincial assembly seats.
In Punjab, PMLN won 48 percent of the province’s National Assembly seats for its 34 percent share of votes and 47 percent of provincial seats for its share of 32 percent in the provincial election votes while PTI won 38 percent of Punjab’s National Assembly seats for a share of 35 percent of the votes and won 37 percent of the seats for its share of 31 percent of the votes.
In Balochistan, the PMLN and PPPP won a significantly higher proportion of seats than their share of votes.
PMLN secured 25 percent of the National Assembly seats in the province, with 14 percent of the votes, and 24 percent of the provincial seats with 13 percent of the votes.
The PPPP won 13 percent of the province’s National Assembly seats for its share of 10 percent of the votes and 20 percent of the provincial seats for its
share of 16 percent of the votes.
In contrast to the three leading parties, barring the Muttahida Qaumi Movement Pakistan (MQMP), several other parties secured a much more significant vote share that did not translate into seats.
MQMP in Sindh bagged significantly higher shares of the national and provincial assembly seats. Tehreek Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), the fourth largest party, did not get any NA seats for its 2,918,086 (5%) National Assembly votes and won only one seat in the Punjab Assembly for its 3,047,019 (5%) provincial assembly votes.
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Pakistan (JUIP), the fifth largest party overall, secured six National Assembly seats for its 2,292,355 (4%) NA votes and 16 provincial assembly seats for its 2,286,546 (4%) provincial assembly votes.
Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan (JIP), the sixth largest party overall, received 1,345,371 (2%) NA votes but did not win any National Assembly seat but won three provincial assembly seats (two in Sindh and one in Balochistan) for an overall provincial vote tally of 1,739,774 (3%) votes.
The FAFEN report highlights that the number of votes polled for National Assembly constituencies was marginally higher than those polled for Provincial Assemblies.
Overall, 448,943 more votes were polled in the National Assembly elections than in the simultaneously held provincial elections in the four provinces. As a result, the turnout for National Assembly seats exceeded provincial turn-out by half a percentage point.
FAFEN’s analysis reveals that none of the leading parties secured an absolute majority in their respective strongholds, even where they have formed governments following the general elections.
In 2024, the trend remained, as the share of the three parties in the valid votes for the National Assembly was 68 percent while their share in votes for provincial assemblies was 62 percent.
This trend holds for the three leading parties individually, as it does for their combined tally in national and provincial elections.
Compared with their respective provincial votes, all three leading parties secured a larger proportion of national votes.
Compared to 18,032,955 (30%) votes garnered by PTI’s National Assembly candidates, the party’s provincial assembly candidates secured 15,384,714 (26%). The party won 88 (33%) national seats and 201 (34%) seats in four provincial assemblies.
PMLN followed closely, with 14,121,509 (24%) national and 12,626,257 (22%) provincial assembly votes as it won 75 (28%) NA seats and 156 (26%) seats in the four provincial assemblies.
The third-place PPPP secured 8,235,875 (14%) and 8,155,000 (14%) votes in the national and provincial constituencies, respectively, with wining 54 (20%) National Assembly seats and 109 (18%) seats in the four provincial assemblies.
In contrast to the three leading parties, other parties and independent candidates received more votes in provincial contests than in National Assembly contests.
The TLP secured 2,918,086 (5%) National Assembly votes and 3,047,019 (5%) provincial assembly votes but it did not win any National Assembly seat and only one provincial assembly seat.
The remaining parties secured 9,196,577 (16%) National Assembly votes and 9,974,864 (17%) provincial assembly votes. These parties won 35 (13%) National Assembly seats and 75 (13%) seats in the four provincial assemblies.
Independent candidates received 7,008,715 (12%) National Assembly and 9,208,239 (16%) provincial assembly votes. Overall, independent candidates won 13 (5%) national and 48 (8%) provincial assembly seats.
TLP secured five percent of the total votes polled and won only 0.1 percent of the seats.
JUIP got four percent of the votes and three percent of the seats. In contrast to these parties, MQMP grabbed a larger share of votes compared to its share of votes as it obtained two percent of the vote but won five percent of the seats.
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, PTI garnered 45 percent of the vote in National Assembly contests, with the remaining 55 percent split among other parties.
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Pakistan (JUIP) received 16 percent, PMLN secured 10 percent, Awami National Party (ANP) and independents each secured seven percent, and other parties collectively accounted for 15 percent.
A closely contested race unfolded between PTI and PMLN in ICT and Punjab.
In ICT, PTI secured 33 percent of the vote, narrowly surpassing PMLN’s 31 percent, while independents captured 20 percent.
Tehreek Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) received five percent, PPPP four percent, and other parties collectively accounted for seven percent.
In Punjab, PTI led with 35 percent of the National Assembly vote, narrowly edging out PMLN, which garnered 34 percent.
The TLP followed with seven percent, PPPP with six percent, independents with 14 percent, and other parties with five percent.
In Sindh, PPPP secured 46 percent of the national vote, followed by the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) with 12 percent, PTI and independents each garnered nine percent, Muttahida Qaumi Movement Pakistan (MQMP) secured eight percent, and other smaller parties collectively accounted for 16 percent.
Balochistan exhibited the most fragmented voting pattern, with regional parties and independents securing 35 percent and 16 percent of the national vote respectively. JUIP secured 16 percent, PML-N 14 percent, PPPP 10 percent, and PTI seven percent.
The report highlights that the three leading parties – PTI, PMLN, and PPPP – earned much higher seat shares in comparison to their vote shares.
Overall, PTI secured 34 percent of the National and provincial assemblies’ seats for an overall vote share of 28 percent for all assemblies.
The PML-N captured 27 percent of the seats with 23 percent of the vote, while PPPP won 19 percent of the seats with just 14 percent of the vote share.
In contrast, smaller parties struggled to convert votes into seats, for instance, TLP, which secured five percent of the total votes, won only 0.1 percent of the seats, and JUIP secured four percent of the vote but only three percent of the seats.
