Report reveals population to reach 386m by 2050

LAHORE:With business-as-usual in current rate of population growth, the population will reach approximately 386 million by 2050 only to put tremendous strain on existing income, services and resources making almost untenable to manage the bulging population.

The Population Council’s latest report “Pakistan @ 2050,” outlined two potential future scenarios for Pakistan - if the current population growth continues unchecked, the population will reach approximately 386 million by 2050. Whereas, under the second scenario, the implementing the decisions of the Council of Common Interest (CCI) shall reduce the growth rate enabling the population to be limited to 338 million.

The report launched during the media coalition meeting organised by the Population Council with the support of UNFPA, suggests if the current population growth rate continues, Pakistan will face significant challenges in its economy, education, health, and human resource sectors by 2050. "The implementation of the National Action Plan, formulated under the decisions of the Council of Common Interest (CCI), must be ensured to bring the population growth to a sustainable level," say the population and demographic experts while reacting to the findings of the report.

Dr Ali Mir, senior Director at the Population Council, emphasised the critical need to achieve a balance between population growth and available resources to ensure Pakistan’s sustainable progress. While driving accountability, he stated that media can play a vital role in highlighting the challenges posed by rapid population growth through investigative journalism. Particular focus is needed on women’s reproductive health and their limited access to family planning services, which remain key areas for attention.

Dr Mir emphasised the urgency of implementing CCI decisions, warning that neglecting these measures would exacerbate Pakistan’s existing challenges. He highlighted the media’s pivotal role in raising awareness about the consequences of rapid population growth and urged journalists to use their reporting to influence governments, advocate for policy improvements, and enhance family planning services. Presenting key findings from the Population Council’s latest report “Pakistan @ 2050,” Dr Saima Bashir, Manager Research at the Population Council, underscored the significant implications of both the scenarios, noting that under the current trajectory, Pakistan would require 115 million new jobs by 2050. However, effective implementation of CCI decisions could reduce this demand to 97 million. She explained, “In terms of economic growth, if fertility rates are brought down to 2.2pc, the GDP growth rate could increase to 5.1pc, compared to 3.4pc if the current trend continues. Additionally, per capita monthly income, which would remain Rs27,000 under the current situation, could rise to PKR 36,000 with effective CCI implementation.”

Dr Bashir emphasised that decisive and immediate action is essential to achieve sustainable economic and social progress. Speaking on the occasion, Ikram Ul Ahad, Deputy Manager Communication, Population Council, underscored the urgent need to address rapid population growth, which is adversely affecting the economy, health, environment, and education indicators. He highlighted the negative impacts of repeated pregnancies on women’s health, which not only affect their lives but also disturb the balance between population and resources.

“Rapid population growth exacerbates the effects of climate change, disproportionately affecting the poor and marginalized segments of society”, he added. Dr Ghulam Farid Khan, Programme Analyst at UNFPA stated, “The media coalition, established under the decisions of the Council of Common Interest (CCI), serves as a platform to ensure accountability and facilitate the implementation of the National Action Plan agenda.”

He praised the coalition for empowering media professionals to hold leaders and policymakers accountable by addressing gaps in service delivery, resource allocation, and policy execution. He underscored the media's crucial role in driving accountability and promoting solutions to Pakistan's population challenges. The journalists representing leading media outlets from across Pakistan reaffirmed their commitment to evidence-based reporting to help stabilise the population growth rate at a sustainable level.