Bleak cotton arrivals highlight crisis for textile value chain and growers

LAHORE: Persistently low cotton arrivals during the latter part of the ongoing season have deepened concerns for Pakistan’s textile value chain, particularly for farmers, as the outlook for recovery remains grim.

The latest fortnightly report by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), released on Wednesday, reveals a significant shortfall in cotton arrivals compared to last year. Total arrivals as of December 15 stand at 5.367 million bales, reflecting a decrease of 2.656 million bales from the previous year’s total of 8.023 million bales -- a decline of 33.11 per cent.

In terms of fortnightly flow, cotton arrivals for the period ending December 15, 2024, amounted to 0.176 million bales, down 34.6 per cent compared to 0.27 million bales during the same period last year.

The provincial breakdown shows Punjab experiencing a greater shortfall in arrivals (33.44 per cent) compared to Sindh (31.8 per cent). Moreover, Punjab’s share in total production has fallen below that of Sindh, with the province recording 2.593 million bales against Sindh’s 2.773 million bales.

Insiders attribute the decline to a mix of market dynamics and external factors. Low cotton prices have discouraged farmers from investing in their crops, while inconsistent government policies have further impacted production. Inadequate farming practices, such as early planting and suboptimal fertiliser usage, are also believed to have contributed to diminished yields.

Additional factors include climate change, pest infestations and disease outbreaks. Erratic weather patterns, such as droughts and heavy rains, have adversely affected crop yields, while insufficient irrigation and pest control measures have compounded the problem.

Experts stress the importance of a detailed examination of the agricultural and cotton production processes to identify and address the root causes of the decline. Without immediate intervention, the ongoing crisis risks further eroding confidence among growers, who are already grappling with low returns despite limited supplies.

The implications extend beyond farmers, threatening the entire cotton supply chain, including production levels, pricing, exports, and market stability. Persistent challenges may force farmers to consider alternative crops, further undermining efforts to revive cotton cultivation.

To address the crisis, the government must prioritise support for cotton farmers. Initiatives should include subsidies, improved irrigation infrastructure and access to high-quality seeds and fertilisers. Investments in research and development to create drought-resistant and pest-resistant cotton varieties could mitigate the impact of climate change and pest infestations.

Market reforms, such as stabilising cotton prices and establishing stronger market linkages, are essential to ensure fair returns for farmers. By implementing these measures, stakeholders can work towards revitalising the cotton industry and restoring its role as a cornerstone of Pakistan’s economy.