Canal closures from 26th: Power sector to maximise RLNG use for power generation

ISLAMABAD: The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) is set to go for canal closures from December 26, 2024, to January 30, 2025, for the de-silting of irrigation system of both Punjab and Sindh.

During this time, the hydro generation would tumble less than 1000MW from the existing 3550MW as the water releases from dams would be reduced till the desilting of the canals is completed, a senior official of the Water Resources Ministry told The News.

However, a top official at the Petroleum Division said this would force the Power Division to increase electric power generation from RLNG-based power plants paving the way to maximise the consumption of RLNG for power generation and reduce the line pack pressure in the national gas transmission network.

The Power Division would cope with the deficit of hydro generation through the electricity generation from the RLNG-based power plants. However, RLNG-based electricity would be pricier than the cheaper hydro generation. “The power consumers would have to pay more in the tariff in the head of the monthly fuel adjustment for the electricity to be used from December to January 30, 2025 as the RLNG cost for power generation hovers around Rs24-26 per unit.”

The power sector is currently consuming just 299 mmcfd of RLNG for power generation therefore, the line pack pressure in the main gas network pipeline continued to be above the dangerous mark of 5bcf for last two months as the line pack pressure is still at 5.177 bcf. When gas pressure in the pipeline exceeds 5 bcf, the gas network system becomes highly vulnerable as it can burst any time.

The system operators---Sui gas companies, however, have reduced the gas intakes from local gas fields by over 50 percent putting the local gas wells in jeopardy as sometimes, the depleting gas wells from where gas outflows are reduced cannot be restored with required pressure, but sometime the gas wells went sunk and cannot be recovered. The gas companies have reduced the local gas intake to 407mmcfd as of Monday (December 16, 2024) from over 870 mmcfd just to manage the line pack pressure in the system. In the month of December, 2024, 12 LNG cargoes would be imported – 10 from Qatar and two from ENI under long terms agreements. The RLNG consumption has reduced in the country because of the high gas tariffs and low growth in the country. “The RLNG consumption has reduced by 150 mmcf per month owing to which 18 LNG cargoes have become additional out of which the government has managed to shift 5 cargoes to 2026 which were to be used in 2025. However, for the remaining 13 additional cargoes in 2025, the authorities have no clue how to deal with them.”

Sui Northern, however, says that the power sector is continuously consuming less RLNG against their allocation. This situation has led to high system pressures across the entire national transmission network. However, mitigation steps are being taken accordingly.

The officials said that the exploration and production companies have time and again cautioned the authorities that the practice of decreasing local gas flows to safeguard the gas transmission system was perilous. The E&P companies, according to the officials, argued that sometimes, wells nearing depletion if compelled to reduce natural gas flows, it would cause irreparable damage, and the wells cannot be recharged to their original flow levels. “They require capital-intensive investment through artificial lift methods to resume production.” In the past, the officials said, many wells braved huge damages because of reduction in their gas outflows and they could not be recharged and this is how many E&P companies braved mammoth losses.

“The main pipeline of the gas in the country is now working as storage of the gas instead of being used for transportation and distribution services just because of the fact that the gas consumption has reduced manifold in the country particularly by power sector.”