Cracks in the great wall of friendship?

ISLAMABAD: The exemplary bond between Pakistan and China may be headed towards a shift, driven by three key factors. This came to light during a recent visit by a Pakistani delegation -- this Geo/The News correspondent included -- to Beijing and Shanghai at the invitation of the Chinese government.

Of the three factors, the first is the sluggish pace of implementation of projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has raised concerns among the Chinese. The second is that the operational status of the Gwadar port remains far from complete, leaving China a little disappointment. Lastly, and perhaps most critically, the ongoing targeting of Chinese nationals in Pakistan has alarmed Beijing. The insistence of the Chinese authorities on validating the findings of these investigations, combined with their desire for a more collaborative inquiry process, underscores a friction in an otherwise robust partnership.

Engaging with various think tanks and venerable policy experts, the Pakistani delegation gleaned insights that spotlight these emerging concerns. Since the conversations were held behind closed doors, the names of the speakers are being withheld as per the agreed rules.

The conversations were candid, highlighting the anxieties Chinese experts have regarding the well-being of their citizens in Pakistan.

When asked about China’s heightened concern for its citizens’ fatalities in Pakistan, experts explained that such occurrences are rare within China’s borders, as the government prioritises the safety of its people. Unlike any other region -- be it Asia, the Americas, Australia, or Africa -- reports of Chinese nationals becoming victims of violence diverge starkly in Pakistan, leading to further unrest among Beijing’s political circles.

China’s officials articulated solidarity with Pakistan, albeit with an important caveat: the Pakistani authorities must recognise the unique social fabric of Chinese families that has been molded through years of stringent population control measures, specifically the one-child policy. When these solitary children fall victim to terrorism, entire families -- and by extension, the nation -- grieve the loss profoundly. A Chinese scholar emphasised that this collective sorrow resonates throughout the country, highlighting the emotional stakes attached to each incident involving its citizens in Pakistan.

Part of the discussions also revolved around the sensitive subject of terrorism and its implications for bilateral relations. When Pakistani delegates suggested that they believed Indian intelligence Research & Analysis Wing (RAW) were orchestrating these attacks, the Chinese counterparts confirmed that they were also told the same but they added that they wanted to see the concrete evidence. The call for transparency was evident as they stressed their interest in observing collaborative joint approaches to address and investigate the terror incidents targeting their nationals more comprehensively.

When considering the broader geopolitical climate, particularly the ramifications of Trump’s administration and its stance on Asian geopolitics, concerns were raised about the potential ramifications for regional stability. Several Chinese experts posited that the Trump administration’s focus on domestic issues might grant increased latitude to regional actors, notably India. The apprehension that India would face little resistance in pursuing its objectives in South Asia loomed over the discussions.

A pertinent inquiry addressed what China’s reaction would entail should India escalate military actions in Kashmir. While a Chinese expert referenced a project focusing on this issue initiated in 2019, they hesitated to divulge specific outcomes or strategic responses, signaling the delicacy of the matter.

Despite these rising concerns, Chinese experts reaffirmed their commitment to cooperative relations with Pakistan. Nonetheless, they voiced dissatisfaction with the perceived lethargy on Pakistan’s part regarding various agreements, suggesting a growing frustration that could imperil future collaborations.

The statistics of trade volume between the two nations further illuminate this point: trade sits at approximately $20 billion, with China exporting $17 billion worth of goods to Pakistan compared to Pakistan’s mere $3 billion exports to China. The experts contended that enhancing the operational capacity of Gwadar and ongoing infrastructural projects could spike this trade figure further, yet stressed that security remains paramount. As China rapidly progresses, often leaving Western nations trailing in development, its desire to utilise Pakistan as a gateway to regional growth remains strong. However, the visible lag from Pakistan in executing agreed-upon ventures continues to foster discontent within China, intensifying reservations over the longevity and depth of their partnership. Despite such frustrations, China appears resolved to offer unwavering support to Pakistan, aspiring to convince Islamabad of the pivotal role China will play amidst crises, displaying the resilience of their bond even as clouds of distrust loom overhead.