PTI at the crossroads

Despite the failure of the so-called ‘final call’ given by imprisoned former prime minister Imran Khan, he has threatened to launch a civil disobedience movement from December 14 if his latest demands are not met.

The two key demands are the release of political prisoners including Imran Khan and the establishment of a judicial commission to investigate the violent crackdown on PTI supporters during the May 9, 2023 protests and the November 26, 2024 crackdown.

The PTI founder is setting unrealistic targets for a party that is not in a position to carry them out. The so-called ‘do die’ march proved a disaster for the party. The main purpose of the November 24 march was to release Imran from prison and to repeal the 26th Amendment. The PTI failed to achieve that.

The party has been trying hard to organise a mass protest movement to exert pressure on the power thats be and the coalition government. But has so far failed to develop a mass movement. The party has proved again and again that it is capable of mobilising thousands of supporters but never touched the magic figure of even one hundred thousand protesters in a protest or a march.

Even when the PTI founder was leading the party from the front, he failed to mobilise enough of his supporters to achieve his objectives through street protest.

Meanwhile, every protest brings more cases against party leaders and workers. The party is fractured and its organisation is in tatters. It also seems to be bitterly divided, with party leaders blaming each other for the ‘final call’ debacle. The political launch of Bushra Bibi has further divided the party. There is no doubt that the PTI is still the dominant party on social media and has the capacity to build narratives no other political party can match. But the party made a big mistake this time when it exaggerated the deaths in Islamabad.

Even the propaganda campaign launched by the PTI on social media regarding the death toll was exposed when the PTI failed to establish its claims of a high death toll. After days of propaganda, the PTI now claims 12 killings and is demanding a judicial inquiry into the killings.

The party also seems leaderless in Punjab. There was a wave of support and sympathy for the party before and around the February 8 general elections but that wave seems to be receding in Punjab.

The result of the December 5 by elections in PP-139 Sheikhupura is a clear reflection of this trend. The PTI candidate has lost more than 13,000 votes in the constituency since the general elections while the PML-N has increased by more than 10, 000 votes.

The PTI leadership does not seem ready to learn any lessons from its mistakes. The party adopted a high risk strategy since April 10, 2022. But it made one mistake after the other to achieve its main objective of regaining power by defeating some mighty powers. Its strategy of street protest has not worked. The party needs a new and better strategy based on reality to survive.

The PTI pretty much stands at a crossroads. It has underestimated the strength of his opponents and overestimated its own and is now paying a heavy price for this. Imran Khan is still behind bars and facing many cases as are other PTI leaders and workers. But the party is not ready to draw a balance sheet of its achievements and failures.

The PTI can learn from the PML-N and PPP how to survive in difficult times. In traditional power politics, political players use minimum risk to achieve their ultimate goal. One needs pressure tactics and patience. Sometimes, it becomes necessary to take two steps back to move forward.

Many people had criticised the strategy adopted by the PPP and PML-N while in opposition. Both parties were targeted, and several politically motivated cases were initiated against their leaders who were arrested and humiliated. But the parties patiently waited for the right time to bounce back. They combined pressure tactics with negotiation skills. And this combination worked well for them.

Contrary to this, the PTI relied heavily on street protests but failed to put enough pressure on both the government and state institutions through street mobilisation.

The PTI is creating more problems for itself with every aggressive move. Civil disobedience will be another failure and disaster. The PTI must remember that the civil disobedience movement failed miserably in 2014, despite the support of important quarters.

The PTI needs to adopt a new strategy and engage with political forces. It is not in a position to defeat the powers that be. Dialogue and engagement is the only way forward.

The writer is a freelance journalist.