PTI’s reality check

While an anxious nation was watching developments taking place in Islamabad on Tuesday, something significant happened in Karachi. The venue was the Pakistan Stock Exchange where the KSE-100 index suffered the biggest single-day plunge in its history. Equities, as they say, fell like ninepins.

Obviously, the political situation had suddenly triggered a rush of panic among investors and businessmen. The market dropped by 3.6 per cent or 3,506 points. This means that the situation had become drastic, portending dire consequences. So, what was actually happening?

But wait. The very next day, on Wednesday, the market recovered. Not just that, the benchmark index rose by 4.96 per cent or 4,696.09 points. And this marked the largest single-day surge in the index’s history.

Such a fall and such a rise within the space of 24 hours would constitute an unimaginable dramatic shift in the affairs of a country. It would be hard for a writer of fiction to imagine a plot to justify this transformation.

Well, we know what transpired around D-Chowk in Islamabad during the long night between Tuesday and Wednesday. The large procession of PTI protesters that had bravely breached the Red Zone was routed by the security forces when an operation was launched after nightfall. Its leaders, Ali Amin Gandapur and Bushra Bibi quickly left the scene, and the protesters ran in confusion for safety.

There is, of course, a story to tell about the entire encounter. The D-Day for the PTI’s march on Islamabad was set on November 24. In real terms, a battle was in the offing between the multitudes that the PTI was planning to mobilise and the security forces of the government. The PTI leaders boasted like boxers do before stepping in the ring.

It was really meant to be a very serious confrontation, mainly because the PTI had named it the final, ‘do or die’ campaign to, in a sense, topple the present government and win the release of Imran Khan. Violence was inherent in this scheme. And it was violence that settled the score late on Tuesday night. Not unexpectedly, the PTI, not able to mount the show it had promised, lost the battle. One measure of this is the in-fighting that is taking place in the top ranks of the party.

Thankfully, the heavens did not fall. There certainly was a lot of violence and the PTI leaders have claimed many deaths – the numbers being in dispute – of their activists from firing from the security forces. But the kind of upheaval that many observers had anticipated did not occur.

In fact, the stage for long had been set for a scenario of national disaster if Imran Khan were not to be released and actions against the PTI were not retracted. I admit to also being very depressed about the overall political state of affairs. It was against this backdrop that the PTI decided to go for a final showdown with the government, primarily to put pressure to secure Imran Khan’s release. The nation held its breath.

Let me give you some idea of how prominent analysts were looking at it. On Wednesday, I read these words by a respected columnist (penned surely before Tuesday night’s denouement): “Most worrisome, however, is that any direct confrontation between the protesters and the security forces could lead to a civil war-like situation with disastrous consequences for the safety and unity of the country”.

A civil war? For the moment, the main strife is playing out in the PTI itself. Bushra Bibi, who is believed to have led Imran Khan to power with her supernatural tactics, is at the centre of wrangling over how the battle was lost. She had revealed her credentials when she said those words, alluding to Saudi Arabia. PTI supporters are at a loss to understand the setback that the party has suffered. Where were the millions who were supposed to have joined the march?

Anyhow, what lessons do we have here about the politics of agitation? Was it ever realistic for the PTI to assume that it could stage a social revolution with the massive popular support it has? And, for that matter, what revolutionary ideas have the party articulated to lead the way for a brighter future?

Not being able to adequately sum up the events of this week, I believe that this has been a sobering experience for all of us. This kind of confrontation, reflective of the intense polarisation that has polluted our politics, makes it even more difficult to resolve the fundamental issues that have made us so miserable. All the time that the chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was playing his politics, sectarian violence continued to rage in Kurram and there were more killings despite a ceasefire.

As for the preemptive measures adopted by the authorities to block the march of the protesters, the daily lives of the citizens of Islamabad and other cities were disrupted for days. Were there no less painful and more inventive ways to deal with the threat of the march and the ‘dharna’?

A lot is happening on various fronts in the wake of Tuesday night’s retreat of the PTI’s march. PTI workers are incensed by the absence of many leaders from the march and the lack of courage of those who were there. Most of them are baffled by what has happened.

There is a lot of confusion about the reported willingness of Imran Khan, who was allowed visits by party leaders in the early phase of the march to divert the march from D-Chowk. It seemed that Bushra Bibi insisted on proceeding towards D-Chowk, with dreadful consequences.

Typically, there are surprising variations in statements made by PTI leaders regarding the deaths of PTI workers caused by security forces. Figures range from eight to that outlandish allegation of 278 deaths by Sardar Khosa. On its part, the government has rejected all these claims.

Imran Khan’s charismatic appeal may be intact but the party, in its functional aspects, has broken. Can it be rebuilt as a less volatile outfit?

The writer is a senior journalist. He can be reached at: ghazi_salahuddin@hotmail.com