MAGA diplomacy: Pakistan and Trump

Donald Trump’s electoral victory as the 47th US president has triggered debates worldwide on its likely repercussions for the US, its allies and the rest of the world.

Pakistan which remained a close ally of the US during the cold war, must closely analyse the implications of Trump’s electoral victory and his administration’s likely policies for its security and economic well-being. While so doing, Pakistan’s policymakers need to keep in mind both the expected strategic continuities and changes in the US external policies under the new Trump administration.

The over-arching US strategic goal since the end of the cold war has been to ensure its continued global hegemony. An important Pentagon planning document leaked to the press in 1992 stressed, “Our first objective is to prevent the reemergence of a new rival…. that poses a threat on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union…. Our strategy must now refocus on precluding the emergence of any potential future global competitor.”

Since then, this over-arching strategic goal has continued to inform the US foreign and security policies under successive US administrations, both Democratic and Republican. It will also remain the salient feature of the US’s external policies under the new Trump administration. Therefore, American efforts to contain the expansion of the strategic and economic influence of China, whom it views as its main emerging rival because of its dramatic rise, will continue globally and especially in the Asia-Pacific region. There is virtual bipartisan consensus on this issue in Washington.

As part of its policy of containment of China, America will continue to strengthen its alliances with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia. It will also persist in its policy of building up its strategic partnership with India to contain China as it has been doing during the past three decades. It is worth recalling that as far back as March 2005, Washington announced its intention “to help India become a major world power in the 21st century”. Needless to say, the growing Indo-US strategic cooperation will have far-reaching implications for Pakistan’s security and economic well-being.

Trump’s past record, his MAGA pronouncements during the election campaign, and his nominations of hawks such as Marco Rubio as secretary of state, Pete Hegseth as defence secretary, and Mike Waltz as national security adviser show that in the conduct of America’s external and security policies, the Trump administration will be guided by narrow-minded national interest more than any other consideration. Thus, as far as the US is concerned, Trump’s electoral victory represents the triumph of nationalism over multilateralism, power politics over international law and morality, transactionalism over ideology, and restrictive international trade policies over a liberal international trade regime.

Under the new Trump administration, therefore, American external policies will witness significant changes while it pursues its over-arching strategic goal of maintaining its global hegemony. For example: Nato member-states will come under growing US pressure to increase their defence budgets to shoulder increased financial burden for European security. China will be subjected to high tariffs by Washington to restrict its exports to the US. American trade and economic policies in general will be guided by mercantilist approaches rather than the logic of a liberal international trade regime.

US pressure on Iran because of its nuclear programme and its resistance policies in the Middle East will increase. America’s support to one side in the Middle East will be enhanced at the cost of the other’s cause. As for Ukraine, American support to Ukraine may decline which may open the door to a settlement which is favourable to Russia. American support for international environmental policies will witness a sharp decline.

The strategic continuities and changes in American policies under the new Trump administration will deeply affect Pakistan’s security and economic well-being. The growing Indo-US strategic partnership will have the effect of disturbing the strategic balance between Pakistan and India forcing the former to seek closer cooperation with China in security and economic fields.

In this context, CPEC, which promised Chinese investment amounting to $62 billion in Pakistan between 2015 and 2030, assumes far-reaching importance for Pakistan both from strategic and economic points of view. It is also predictable that India will use all the means at its disposal, both overt and covert, to undermine this project which is vitally important for Pakistan. In fact, India for this purpose is already engaged in sponsoring terrorist activities in Pakistan, especially in Baluchistan.

Under the new Trump administration, Pakistan and the US would be confronted with several strategic contradictions relating to China, India, Iran, Islamophobia, and the Middle East issue which would preclude the deepening of strategic cooperation between the two countries in the foreseeable future. This, however, is not to dismiss the importance of mutual friendship and cooperation between Pakistan and the US.

The US is militarily and economically the most powerful country in the world with the global reach of its power and influence. It is also an important destination for our exports besides hosting a large Pakistani diaspora. It has been the source of economic and military assistance to Pakistan since the 1950s. It wields powerful influence at regional and global levels because of its enormous economic and military strength, its predominant soft power, its system of worldwide alliances, and its key positions in international organisations like the UN Security Council.

Pakistan, a declared nuclear power, is located at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, and has been a voice of moderation in the Muslim world, with the potential to emerge as an important economic and military power over the next few decades. The country has its own importance for the US which needs friends in our region. The maintenance of friendly relations and mutually beneficial cooperation between them is, therefore, in their mutual interest.

In the field of security, Pakistan and the US have generally had close cooperation in the past – despite the ups and downs. However, for the future while maintaining security links we must keep our expectations from the US within the limits of realism because of the growing strategic divergence between the two countries. Therefore, we should not make ourselves over-dependent on the supply of armaments from the US. We need to instead diversify the sources of such supplies and develop indigenous capabilities in this field. Both countries certainly can benefit from cooperation in countering terrorism by sharing intelligence and improving anti-terrorism capabilities.

Despite the emerging strategic divergence between Pakistan and the US, mainly because of US-China rivalry and India’s hegemonic designs in South Asia which enjoy America’s support, it is in their interest to maintain friendly relations and mutually beneficial cooperation.

However, Islamabad and Washington need to be cognisant of both the potential and the limits of their relationship to avoid exaggerated expectations which will only feed mutual grievances. Pakistan’s efforts to maintain friendly relations with the US should be accompanied by sustained efforts to develop strategic cooperation with China. A politically stable and economically strong and self-reliant Pakistan would be an indispensable condition for this tight rope walk.

The writer is a retired ambassador and author of ‘Pakistan and a World in

Disorder – A Grand Strategy for the Twenty-First Century’. He can be reached at: javid.husain@gmail.com